Three more wins for 4th

[barry]

I know there has been much gnashing of teeth, and harsh words spoken, but the reality is, that because of our good work earlier in the year, we have a 95% chance of wrapping up 4th spot by winning only 3 more games for the year.
(Other sides below us would need to win all remaining games to overhaul us as we are essentially 2 games clear, which is unlikely as most are sitting around the 60% win ratio).

Our remaining games:

Bulldogs (Manuka)
Fremantle (SCG)
Geelong (ANZ)
Collingwood (Dome)
Brisbane (SCG)

Freo and Brisbane at the SCG plus one more will be enough. A win next week against the flagging dogs would cement us in.

So, the priority has to be getting our stars fit and ready for finals. Let the remaining rounds play themselves out, but make sure all injured players are rested appropriately. We'd want to have our full strength team in for round 22 v Lions to sew up 4th spot, and give us some form running into the finals.

If we beat the dogs, the games vs Geelong and Collingwood, we can essentially "throw". By that I mean, dont risk playing any stars that have niggles. If the young kids fluke a win, thats great, but no loss if we loose.

[barry]

I've kind of screwed up this thread a bit.

My premise is:
3 wins would give us around 95% chance of finishing 4th. Need a team below us to win all 5 remaining games to dislodge us.

2 wins would give us around 70% chance of finishing 4th. Team below us would need to win 4 from 5 to dislodge us.

Winning 4 from 5 might seem possible, but when you look at the form of those below us, its quite unlikely.

[hammo]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

[NMWBloods]

I still think we have a decent chance of winning four of those. However, having said that, Goodes' fitness is a wildcard and we may struggle without him.

The losses to Collingwood and Hawthorn in the past month were not surprising, neither was the close game against Carlton. However, we were lucky against Carlton as they wasted chances in the first quarter to put us away and we were surprisingly crap against Adelaide. Our form can chop and change though.

I had a feeling that the Bulldogs may struggle after last week's smashing and so I think they are still vulnerable.
Collingwood is also vulnerable at TD, as I noted a month or so ago.

All five games will be difficult though.

[ROK Lobster]

We are likely to beat Geelong, lose to Freo, draw with someone, win one in a thrilling comeback and forget to turn up for the fifth of those matches. Who knows with this mob how they will go one week to the next. Basically, as i see it, they have a month or so to get Goodes fit, get Hall into form and start playing good football again or it wont matter much where we finish.

[Plugger46]

I'm confident we'll get the Pies this time. I have no idea why, just have a feeling.

Geelong will probably handle us, but I think we'll be competitive.

Dogs are vulnerable.

Dockers and Lions are games that we should win at home.

We always struggle against the Crows, and with most of the other sides losing over the weekend, we're still well placed.

[sharp9]

Not quite sure I follow you there....If we win 4 out of five we DEFINITELY finish 4th.

If we win 3 out of 5 we would be 50/50 to finish 4th, that would mean that ALL of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions and St. Kilda have to lose at least one game. You would hope that this would be the case.

To finish 4th winning only 2 out of five is unbelievably unlikely, almost mathematically inpossible. It would mean finishing 4th with 12 and a half wins!!! It would mean NOT ONE of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions or St. Kilda finishing 4 out of 5. Someone ALWAYS finishes 4 out of 5 (or 5 out of 6 - Adelaide).

If, as you suggest, we can win 2 out of 5 and Lose to Collingwood...then you are assuming that Collingwood will lose 2 of its other 4 matches. There is no reason to assume this, let alone suggest it is "95% likely."

Having said that 3 victories over Collingwood, Brisbane and Fremantle should be enough, that would require Saints, Adelaide or North to win 5 out of 5. You would hope that wouldn't happen.

Sydney....Bulldogs (H), Freo (H), Geelong (H), Collingwood (A), Brisbane (H)
Adelaide....Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Essendon (A), Saints (A) Bulldogs (H)
North....Brisbane (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Geelong (A) Port (H)
Brisbane....North (H), Hawthorn (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Sydney (A)
Collingwood....Hawthorn (H), Saints (H), Port (A), Sydney (H), Freo (A)
Saints....Port (H), Collingwood (H), Freo (A), Adelaide (H), Essendon (H)

IMHO the equation is simple, we need to play much better than we currently are to stay in 4th. If we play as we have done for the last 4 weeks we will win only 1 or 0 games. If we play to our ability we will win 3 or 4 which should be enough.

[Captain]

I agree that we can win 4 of the next 5 games. The Dogs game without a lot of personnel will be crucial. Win that and we are set.

For some reason as well, I think we can knock off the Pies.

[hot potato]

If the playing group is given the freedom from the coaching staff and told 'Go coach yourselves' I think they might play some daring footy and win a couple ore games.

[sprite]

Realistically looking 6th or 7th - out first week of finals.

[goswannie14]

In reality we can afford to drop one more game than any of the chasing mob and still finish 4th. If that were to happen North would finish on the same amount of points, but we have a superior percentage (22% better, which is as good a s a game in hand).

[ScottH]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

That's not such an unlikely scenario.

We are likely to beat Geelong, lose to Freo, draw with someone, win one in a thrilling comeback and forget to turn up for the fifth of those matches. Who knows with this mob how they will go one week to the next. Basically, as i see it, they have a month or so to get Goodes fit, get Hall into form and start playing good football again or it wont matter much where we finish.

We used to start slow and finish in a flurry.

[Lucky Knickers]

Crows look to have a reasonable run home and the type of 'choke the life out of them' game plan to win all 5.

CMON THE BLOODS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AnnieH]

If we continue to play like we have in the past month then we could forseeably lose all 5 games.

... and finish 11th.

[barry]

Not quite sure I follow you there....If we win 4 out of five we DEFINITELY finish 4th.

If we win 3 out of 5 we would be 50/50 to finish 4th, that would mean that ALL of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions and St. Kilda have to lose at least one game. You would hope that this would be the case.

To finish 4th winning only 2 out of five is unbelievably unlikely, almost mathematically inpossible. It would mean finishing 4th with 12 and a half wins!!! It would mean NOT ONE of North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, Lions or St. Kilda finishing 4 out of 5. Someone ALWAYS finishes 4 out of 5 (or 5 out of 6 - Adelaide).

If, as you suggest, we can win 2 out of 5 and Lose to Collingwood...then you are assuming that Collingwood will lose 2 of its other 4 matches. There is no reason to assume this, let alone suggest it is "95% likely."

Having said that 3 victories over Collingwood, Brisbane and Fremantle should be enough, that would require Saints, Adelaide or North to win 5 out of 5. You would hope that wouldn't happen.

Sydney....Bulldogs (H), Freo (H), Geelong (H), Collingwood (A), Brisbane (H)
Adelaide....Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Essendon (A), Saints (A) Bulldogs (H)
North....Brisbane (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Geelong (A) Port (H)
Brisbane....North (H), Hawthorn (A), Bulldogs (H), Carlton (H), Sydney (A)
Collingwood....Hawthorn (H), Saints (H), Port (A), Sydney (H), Freo (A)
Saints....Port (H), Collingwood (H), Freo (A), Adelaide (H), Essendon (H)

IMHO the equation is simple, we need to play much better than we currently are to stay in 4th. If we play as we have done for the last 4 weeks we will win only 1 or 0 games. If we play to our ability we will win 3 or 4 which should be enough.

I dont think you quite grasp the statistics.

But I'm more than happy to enter a bet with you:
$50 50:50.
You win if any of Adel, North, Brisb, Pies, Saints win all 5 remaining games,
Any dont, I win.

Ok ?