2008 Draft discussion

[Nico]

I asked font of all draft knowledge Emma Quayle (to please, please tell me we weren't going to take Suban at #12), and her response was:



If we don't take Suban, we'll take Sidebottom. Gee-zus. I'm going to be an unhappy man on Saturday unless a quality tall falls to #30 (reasonably likely) and we pick him (fairly unlikely).

Vespa might have been a surprise, but not as much of a surprise as us actually picking anyone over 188cm in the first 2 rounds.

Simon we have some history on picking up gooduns who kicked a bag in the
U18 GF. Goodes (6) and Buchanan (8) come to mind. So Sidebottom wouldn't surprise me if available at 12.

[Nico]

Anybody else a fan of Casey Sibosado? It would be completely un-Roos-like, but Yarran at 12 and Sibosado at 30 would be an incredible injection of raw forwardline talent into our side. The trade-off is an elevated risk of failure. Sibosado has been touted as potentially the next Buddy Franklin, but the key word is "potentially". Apparently inconsistent, etc. Quite like Yarran.

[youtube]e630UcTE5fE[/youtube]

Excuse me, but was that an old tape of MOL?

[SimonH]

But i want Yarran

We'd be a pretty exciting team to watch with Vesz and Yarran running amok.

Yarran will not still be around at pick 12.

I'd rather we take the chance on Yarran than take Suban. FFS how dumb would we have to be to take another midfielder.

Firstly, Yarran will still not be around at pick 12. Secondly: Que? Jason McCartney says that while Yarran has played principally as a small forward thus far, "once he's developed the engine and endurance base, he could be unbelievable through the midfield". Almost no-one gets selected in the first 25 picks with the intention that they'll remain a specialist small forward for their whole career, any more. High picks for non-KPP players are all about developing midfielders.

Don't agree with that sentiment. Picking the player they want the most at pick 12 is rational behaviour. They shouldn't be worried about whether some draft pundits think this player is only "worth" pick 24 or 25. If they want someone, don't think he'll be around at pick 30, why not pick him rather than someone they don't want because others think he should go around pick 12.

Right as far as you go, but the problem is you need a bit of risk/return analysis. Vespa, for example, was a bit less than 50% chance of making it through to our 2nd pick at #26 in 2007. (In Burgan's phantom draft he went at #16-- lower in some other people's.) If the alternative we were looking at for #11 was only very marginally behind Vespa, and if the likely alternative at #26 was well behind Vespa, that could've been a punt worth taking. Of course right now, we're happy we got him.

Although in the longer term, I fear that the failure to try to grab a quality KPP in either of our first 2 picks in 2007, coming off the back of not taking a KPP with any of our first 2 picks at any stage under Roos' reign (just 3 rucks in Jolly, Chambers and Everitt, plus Richards and Dempster who might both be described as 3rd talls), could come back to bite us.

[SimonH]

Excuse me, but was that an old tape of MOL?

Looks nice. Zero chance of us picking him up at 12 or 30, but it would be great if he slipped through to 61. Chances aren't good, though, because Burgan has him going to Adelaide at 44-- meaning that at latest they'll probably take him at 60.

[liz]

Right as far as you go, but the problem is you need a bit of risk/return analysis. Vespa, for example, was a bit less than 50% chance of making it through to our 2nd pick at #26 in 2007. (In Burgan's phantom draft he went at #16-- lower in some other people's.) If the alternative we were looking at for #11 was only very marginally behind Vespa, and if the likely alternative at #26 was well behind Vespa, that could've been a punt worth taking. Of course right now, we're happy we got him.

In retrospect (and having read Quayle's The Draft) it doesn't sound like Maxfield ever had anyone else in his sights at 11 last year. Piecing things together, it also doesn't sound as if any other club wanted him around that pick (ie they had other preferences) so if we'd had 15 or 16, we'd probably still have landed him.

[UglyDuckling]

I really really hope we pick up Johnston with pick 12 and even another key forward at pick 30 i dont know how the list management guys could even consider not getting more forwards knowing that MOL will go at the end of next year and possibly hall aswell.

I would imaging they would get Johnston at 12 and hope Suban slides to 30 how many nuggets do we really need

[Nico]

Looks nice. Zero chance of us picking him up at 12 or 30, but it would be great if he slipped through to 61. Chances aren't good, though, because Burgan has him going to Adelaide at 44-- meaning that at latest they'll probably take him at 60.

We see lots of smaller aboriginal players come through but not as many talls. When a good tall comes along they are usually very good. Goodes and MOL are fairly handy players and Franklin goes alright. Casey looks darn good on those clips and seems to have that "something". Imagine snagging another MOL and he looks like he plays both forward and back.

On the flip side I guess when recruiting people watch these guys they also see their clangers. So clips will always show the good stuff, but his natural raw movements look pretty exciting.

[Rob-bloods]

At a Demons function tonight, their recruiting manager linked us with Suban and Sidebottom, interestingly not Lewis Johnston as every other 'phantom' journos draft did.

[ugg]

Burgan has updated his phantom draft. He seems quite adamant that we will draft a player who other clubs rate as a second rounder, who he now thinks is KPP Mitchell Brown


Intrigue continues as draft day looms - Official Website of the Australian Football League

[Legs Akimbo]

Burgan has updated his phantom draft. He seems quite adamant that we will draft a player who other clubs rate as a second rounder, who he now thinks is KPP Mitchell Brown


Intrigue continues as draft day looms - Official Website of the Australian Football League

@@@@ing great.

[BSA5]

@@@@ing great.

I've got word that Mitch Brown is a gun, so I wouldn't mind that too much.

[SimonH]

Burgan has updated his phantom draft. He seems quite adamant that we will draft a player who other clubs rate as a second rounder, who he now thinks is KPP Mitchell Brown


Intrigue continues as draft day looms - Official Website of the Australian Football League

I'm happy if we pick at #12 anyone over 190cm who's in Quayle's top 25. Brown is #19 and 195cm.

Burgan has the good oil on a lot of clubs. However, on the most recent evidence, he doesn't have a hotline to what the Swans are thinking (we might even be feeding him disinformation). This is what he had to say about our pick 11 last year:

11 ? SYDNEY ? ALEX RANCE

Swan Districts, WA, Tall defender, October 9 1989, 192.3cm, 87.6kg

Rance is one of the most difficult players to place in the top echelon, as he is highly rated by all clubs from No.5-13 ? including the Swans. It won't surprise where he is chosen, but any later than West Coast (No.13) would raise an eyebrow. Jack Grimes, who is similarly rated to Rance, is also a strong tip for No.11. Lachlan Henderson, Ben McEvoy and Patrick Dangerfield could come into play, and don't be surprised if Tony Notte, Tayte Pears, Andy Otten or Brendan Whitecross bolts here.

Rance was available and overlooked. As was Grimes. Henderson, McEvoy and Dangerfield had gone 8, 9 and 10. All of the last 4 names were available, and the last 2 were even available at our pick 26 and ignored! No mention of Veszpremi at all.

And guess what? Burgan had us plumping for Andy Otten at pick 26, with possibles being Harry Taylor, Callan Ward, Steven Gaertner, Jarrhan Jacky, Marlon Motlop and Chris Mayne. About 4 of whom were still available. Whoops.

[liz]

And guess what? Burgan had us plumping for Andy Otten at pick 26, with possibles being Harry Taylor, Callan Ward, Steven Gaertner, Jarrhan Jacky, Marlon Motlop and Chris Mayne. About 4 of whom were still available. Whoops.

To be fair to Burgan in this instance, Roos said after the draft that they went in with essentially two favoured choices at each of the first two picks. Vez or Grimes at 11, and Meredith or Otten at 26. Judging by the speed at which Maxfield read out Vez' name, one can assume that they'd made their mind up on that one well ahead of time. But they spent a fair time before plumping for Meredith at 26 so they were probably still tossing up between him and Otten.

If the Swans do "reach" tomorrow for someone not in most pundits top dozen, I won't be disappointed if it is Schoenmakers. He likens his style to O'Keefe, looks like a good mark and is reasonably skilled. He meets Roos penchant for run, run, run but is also tall enough to develop into a KPF, given time.

Another burning question is whether this will turn out to be another "OK" draft for us. One BF punter seems convinced that both Geelong and the Swans have been eyeing out NOK (Nathan) who is a tall, marking forward. And then there's a ROK2 lurking around too.

[ugg]

12 SYDNEY
LEWIS JOHNSTON
VITAL INFORMATION 17, from North Adelaide. 193cm, 84kg. Clever key forward.
THE RATIONALE Sydney needs a few things. A priority is a tall, marking forward to start preparing for life beyond Barry Hall and Michael O'Loughlin. Johnston has a lot of tricks, and backline potential should that be needed too.
THE COMPLICATION The Swans have been linked strongly to midfielder Nick Suban, and it wouldn't surprise to hear his name called here. Should Jack Ziebell or Steele Sidebottom fall, they'd be looked at. Ryan Shoenmakers is a chance here too.

Emma Quayle predicts your first round pick - realfooty.com.au

[ugg]

I'm happy if we pick at #12 anyone over 190cm who's in Quayle's top 25. Brown is #19 and 195cm.

Burgan has the good oil on a lot of clubs. However, on the most recent evidence, he doesn't have a hotline to what the Swans are thinking (we might even be feeding him disinformation). This is what he had to say about our pick 11 last year:

Rance was available and overlooked. As was Grimes. Henderson, McEvoy and Dangerfield had gone 8, 9 and 10. All of the last 4 names were available, and the last 2 were even available at our pick 26 and ignored! No mention of Veszpremi at all.

And guess what? Burgan had us plumping for Andy Otten at pick 26, with possibles being Harry Taylor, Callan Ward, Steven Gaertner, Jarrhan Jacky, Marlon Motlop and Chris Mayne. About 4 of whom were still available. Whoops.

Simon, Vesz was definitely a surprise, other pundits besides Burgan did not predict he would go so early. However, the Swans were hot on him, and knew they he wouldn't last till their next pick so weren't afraid to swoop. By the sounds of things, a similar thing is going to happen this morning.