Roos warns of Sydney "catastrophe"

[pinkemu]

Something that no one has mentioned as best as I can tell, there are alot of VERY LARGE Islander kids playing rugby league. So parents will want the kids to play something else. If the team can be competitive straight away, it will work. However it might be at the expense initially of Swans supporters rather than new converts.

Very true, in fact the weight divisions that used to exist many moons ago are often spoken about as the saviour of the junior categories in rugby league. Especially in the eyes of mums.

[ShockOfHair]

Of course the kid who epitomises the wild west is tyro Bevo. Tough as a Bandido's missus with PMT and a flannelette footballer if ever there was one. Unhappily both the Bear and one percent reckon that the fibro kid is not good enough for their suburban outfit. Apparently it will be a team of silky skills out west.

Make sure you enter that in the "Alarming Metaphor of the month" competition, Connolly. One of the few memorable things said on this thread, which I fear is going to be repeated ad nauseum over the next five years.

Can I suggest all those in favour of the West Sydney team put a flannel tag under their avatar.

All those against post a flannel tag with a red line running through it.

It will save time.

[top40]

What the AFL should never have done several years ago was to deny the Swans a priority over Greater Sydney based kids in the draft. (The same crazy policy also applied to the Lions and kids from South East Queensland).

The decision to stop this priority policy came from Eddie McGuire and Collingwood, who threaten legal action if the policy continued. (I may add that the best man at Eddie's wedding is the AFL's chief legal officier)

Players like Lenny Hayes, Dylan Addison and Mark McVeigh all grew up in Sydney. They should have grown up as teenagers knowing that they would become Swans, not that they could be drafted to clubs away from New South Wales.

[connolly]

The decision to stop this priority policy came from Eddie McGuire and Collingwood, who threaten legal action if the policy continued. (I may add that the best man at Eddie's wedding is the AFL's chief legal officier)

That was the nuptials with Bucks presumably. The one with Andy as bridesmaid?

[Nico]

The new ground is very well placed in terms of access from 5 major Council areas. Liverpool to the south, Blacktown nearby, Penrith west but linked by freeway so about 15 minutes away, Richmond about 20 kms away.

Add to this Parramatta down the road by freeway and Baulkham Hills connected by M7 and Campbelltown by M7 and freeway (about 30 to 40 mins drive).

So it is well placed to access a HUGE population probably close to 1.5 million if not more. Would be very similar to Collingwood supporters and Swans would be the Carlton.

Something that no one has mentioned as best as I can tell, there are alot of VERY LARGE Islander kids playing rugby league. So parents will want the kids to play something else. If the team can be competitive straight away, it will work. However it might be at the expense initially of Swans supporters rather than new converts.

That's not the demographic Bas. What I am after is nationalities, race, religions etc. Are the people who live there likely to follow an AFL team. eg. most Muslims follow soccer as far as I know. You spoke about Tongans; are they likely to watch AFL. The anglo saxons who have lived there for generations; are they likely to pick up AFL and shun Rugby. Is there a fair slice of Kiwis out that way? They don't appear to have a high conversion rate.

In Melbourne there are some asians who have picked the game up but very few as % of total crowds. In Melbourne 2nd and 3rd generation Italians and Greeks go to the footy with a large proportion following Carlton because Carlton as a suburb has a tradional Italian culture. When you go the footy in Melbourne, if you take a cursory look around it will Anglos, Italians and Greeks with a smattering of other groups.

Will the AFL go back to free tickets to get people along. I'll bet the family jewels that they bulk up crowds by manipulating the draw to have high drawing Melbourne clubs play them in Sydney. Cheap airfare and accommodation packages anyone. At least on the GC you have a hard core of expat Vics who will go to the footy regardless.

I may have missed it but I have never seen it explained as to who is going to go. Just broad statements about the population growth out West.

[Cheer Squad]

That's not the demographic Bas. What I am after is nationalities, race, religions etc. Are the people who live there likely to follow an AFL team. eg. most Muslims follow soccer as far as I know. You spoke about Tongans; are they likely to watch AFL. The anglo saxons who have lived there for generations; are they likely to pick up AFL and shun Rugby. Is there a fair slice of Kiwis out that way? They don't appear to have a high conversion rate.

I may have missed it but I have never seen it explained as to who is going to go. Just broad statements about the population growth out West.

You're spot on with your observation.

As far as demographics are concerned, western Sydney is a very diverse place these days. You have the stereotypical white working class as well as as just about every other nationality under the sun.

There are plenty of Indians around the Harris Park area, who've been getting plenty of publicity lately. I wonder if they'll be barracking for the new AFL team?

Perhaps Bear can tell us exactly who the supporters of the new club will be?

[JF_Bay22_SCG]

Been chatting to Hatley, a former Blacktown resident. He basically said that the AFL & everyone HAS to realise that playing games at Homebush does NOT constitute the real western suburbs. It is in the inner west, 5-8 minutes train trip from Strathfield.

He argues that as opposed to building a 10000 capacity stadium in Blacktown, make it 15000-20000 & have the western Sydney team actually play there.

People say that people in the greater west are staunchly rugby league. Well if that is so, why are the crowds at both Parramatta AND Penrith NRL games so bad so often? If that the the heartland of the game both teams would have full grounds every week. But they don't.

As we know NRL clubs have only just now cottoned onto the concept of memberships & season-long support. They have little clue about how to get people to games. AFL people DO! Averaging 8-10000 at a Blacktown venue is DEFINITELY attainable. But only if the AFL do things right & promote the club properly.

Whether as a Swans supporter I'd actually like to give Sydney AFL fans a chance to leave the red and white is another thin entirely. Having spent over 20 years trying to get Sydney people to see the Swans as THEIR team, it would kill me seeing once-Swans fans supporters and/or members of the new club. But then again, if the new club wins new fans to the game, then I'm supportive of it. It is an emotional double-edged sword.

The AFL knows that in terms of corporate involvement with the game the Sydney market is largely untapped. That is why they are going for Western Sydney over Tasmania etc. They want more for their TV rights. And by having a weekly game in Sydney have a better chance at being attractive to potential corporate suitors.

JF

[Cheer Squad]

Been chatting to Hatley, a former Blacktown resident. He basically said that the AFL & everyone HAS to realise that playing games at Homebush does NOT constitute the real western suburbs. It is in the inner west, 5-8 minutes train trip from Strathfield.

There's an element of truth in that, because anyone living west of Homebush has to travel east to get there. Geographically, Homebush is in the centre of Sydney. However, for the rest of Sydney - the eastern suburbs, the inner west, the Shire, the entire north shore - Homebush is perceived to be right in the heart of the western suburbs.

He argues that as opposed to building a 10000 capacity stadium in Blacktown, make it 15000-20000 & have the western Sydney team actually play there.

He's right. That would be key to developing a genuine western Sydney identity. They won't achieve that objective if they're part-basing the team in Canberra.

Whether as a Swans supporter I'd actually like to give Sydney AFL fans a chance to leave the red and white is another thin entirely. Having spent over 20 years trying to get Sydney people to see the Swans as THEIR team, it would kill me seeing once-Swans fans supporters and/or members of the new club.

JF

This is exactly what the Swans are afraid of - for good reasons - as made clear in this article today by Tim Lane. Here are the key paragraphs:

"A major concern for the Swans in relation to the AFL's expansion plan is that they can't afford to lose any of their supporters. As the 2009 season began, the Swans' Sydney-based membership was 16,000. That is an extraordinarily low number.

Yet the formation of a second club in Sydney will inevitably fragment what has been the undivided attention of the footy-interested public from the Swans. That has the potential to translate into numbers and the Swans simply can't afford that to happen. The only alternative to it is that the new club's support base be derived entirely ? repeat entirely ? from the previously unconverted. That is not so much a big ask as a preposterously ambitious one."

Swans' main man should say what he really thinks - RFNews - realfooty.com.au

[Bear]

Perhaps Bear can tell us exactly who the supporters of the new club will be?

That's exactly the same ignorant question asked 25 years ago when the VFL plonked a team in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney.

Well guess what, the Swans have a decent share of the market now in their geographic heartland - middle class anglo families would probably be the single biggest representation because that is the single biggest share in the heartland areas. And... we are now starting to see more Asian Australians come along to the Swans as they increase numbers in the inner city areas and get introduced to the game.

The West is a broad mix, so trying to pidgeon hole demographics and ruling in or out different people as likely supporters is a stupid strategy.

Try telling Sri Lankan-origin Ranga from Western Sydney that he should not be playing Australian football and/or with Geelong. We may as well pack up and retreat back to Victoria - then die out - if we take that attitude.

[Bear]

This is exactly what the Swans are afraid of - for good reasons - as made clear in this article today by Tim Lane. Here are the key paragraphs:

"A major concern for the Swans in relation to the AFL's expansion plan is that they can't afford to lose any of their supporters. As the 2009 season began, the Swans' Sydney-based membership was 16,000. That is an extraordinarily low number.

Yet the formation of a second club in Sydney will inevitably fragment what has been the undivided attention of the footy-interested public from the Swans. That has the potential to translate into numbers and the Swans simply can't afford that to happen. The only alternative to it is that the new club's support base be derived entirely ? repeat entirely ? from the previously unconverted. That is not so much a big ask as a preposterously ambitious one."

Swans' main man should say what he really thinks - RFNews - realfooty.com.au

No, Tim Lane is someone who has a warped view because he would rather a team in Tassie and is a PR man for that flawed cause. Tassie is a VERY small market, and even worse, is fragmented into two bitter rival cities with few if any national companies headquartered in either city. A recipe for disaster if ever there was one.

His ignorance of the situation in Sydney is clear from the spin in that article.

To say that it will "inevitably fragment" the Sydney market is ignorance of the make-up of Sydney. The East and West are different markets, just as Footscray and Hawthorn are to a smaller extent.

The caption should read - "Tim Lane - cash for comment".

[connolly]

That's not the demographic Bas. What I am after is nationalities, race, religions etc. Are the people who live there likely to follow an AFL team. eg. most Muslims follow soccer as far as I know. You spoke about Tongans; are they likely to watch AFL. The anglo saxons who have lived there for generations; are they likely to pick up AFL and shun Rugby. Is there a fair slice of Kiwis out that way? They don't appear to have a high conversion rate.

In Melbourne there are some asians who have picked the game up but very few as % of total crowds. In Melbourne 2nd and 3rd generation Italians and Greeks go to the footy with a large proportion following Carlton because Carlton as a suburb has a tradional Italian culture. When you go the footy in Melbourne, if you take a cursory look around it will Anglos, Italians and Greeks with a smattering of other groups.

Will the AFL go back to free tickets to get people along. I'll bet the family jewels that they bulk up crowds by manipulating the draw to have high drawing Melbourne clubs play them in Sydney. Cheap airfare and accommodation packages anyone. At least on the GC you have a hard core of expat Vics who will go to the footy regardless.

I may have missed it but I have never seen it explained as to who is going to go. Just broad statements about the population growth out West.

Hit the nail on the head there matey. Western Sydney isn't anything apart from a collection of suburbs to the west of Sydney CBD. A wonderful selling point though for bum politicians (yes thats you Leo), professional government grantees and wankers of all descriptions (yes thats you Andy). Its a chimera. And guess who fell for it.

[Midfield]

That's exactly the same ignorant question asked 25 years ago when the VFL plonked a team in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney.

Well guess what, the Swans have a decent share of the market now in their geographic heartland - middle class anglo families would probably be the single biggest representation because that is the single biggest share in the heartland areas. And... we are now starting to see more Asian Australians come along to the Swans as they increase numbers in the inner city areas and get introduced to the game.

The West is a broad mix, so trying to pidgeon hole demographics and ruling in or out different people as likely supporters is a stupid strategy.

Try telling Sri Lankan-origin Ranga from Western Sydney that he should not be playing Australian football and/or with Geelong. We may as well pack up and retreat back to Victoria - then die out - if we take that attitude.

Correct bear. I think demographics matters little. Bottom line is we've got kids playing the game in ever increasing numbers and i have no doubt that any kid playing auskick in the greater western region will turn into avid WS supporters. Aussie rules will never compete with league in the western suburbs, no doubt about that, but it doesn't need to. The market is so big that WS will be successful. Andy is wanker but he's got this one right.

[BSA5]

Correct bear. I think demographics matters little. Bottom line is we've got kids playing the game in ever increasing numbers and i have no doubt that any kid playing auskick in the greater western region will turn into avid WS supporters. Aussie rules will never compete with league in the western suburbs, no doubt about that, but it doesn't need to. The market is so big that WS will be successful. Andy is wanker but he's got this one right.

Certainly not in 50 years or so. I reckon it will get there eventually though. Whether we get to see it or not....

[Cheer Squad]

That's exactly the same ignorant question asked 25 years ago when the VFL plonked a team in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney.

Well guess what, the Swans have a decent share of the market now in their geographic heartland - middle class anglo families would probably be the single biggest representation because that is the single biggest share in the heartland areas. And... we are now starting to see more Asian Australians come along to the Swans as they increase numbers in the inner city areas and get introduced to the game.

The West is a broad mix, so trying to pidgeon hole demographics and ruling in or out different people as likely supporters is a stupid strategy.

Try telling Sri Lankan-origin Ranga from Western Sydney that he should not be playing Australian football and/or with Geelong. We may as well pack up and retreat back to Victoria - then die out - if we take that attitude.

I think you're speaking with a forked tongue, mate.

You're the one trying to pigeon-hole the Sydney Swans as an exclusively eastern suburbs outfit. I come from the western suburbs and I've never perceived the club to be like that. All this romanticised twaddle about the eastern suburbs being a "heartland". The only reason the club played at the SCG in the first place was that there was no other suitable ground in Sydney when the club moved north.

If the eastern suburbs is the club's "heartland", it was beating very faintly in the late 80s and early 90s, wasn't it? Hardly anyone had the heart - or the stomach - to show up on match day.

If we follow your logic about east and west, we may as well rename the club "The Eastern Sydney Swans". Yuck!

As far as Ranga is concerned, I'd want him to support the Swans, not the western Sydney whatevers.

[Cheer Squad]

To say that it will "inevitably fragment" the Sydney market is ignorance of the make-up of Sydney. The East and West are different markets, just as Footscray and Hawthorn are to a smaller extent.

All I can say is that the Swans have worked very hard to sell up to 10,000 club-branded superpasses to people largely from Sydney's west. You don't seem to care that we might lose these people to the new team. I do.