Home preliminary vs collingwood

[GongSwan]

I think Dermie was spot on yesterday when he said all the teams that have played finals so far have looked tired, I think the week off is huge. I hope Collingwood get through and for us to break our losing srteak in a final...how good would that be Knocking Collingwood out off a prelim...

Cheers

waz

Yep, this, knocking those ferals out in a prelim would be almost as sweet as knocking off the GF

[Nico]

With Maxwell likely to rubbed out it is very hard to see the Pies beating the WC. The Pies weren't that bad against Hawthorn and North was very poor, so that brings them back to a close game. Was it a case of North poor or the WC very good? If Maxwell doesn't play their backline is much the poor for that against a very hot WC forward line. History looks to be in grave danger on this one.

[Danzar]

No such thing. It's the Law of Probability and has nothing to do with averages but rather factors which have various influences on the result. If Collingwood have better personnel and effectively counter our game plan, then the Laws of Probability say they will continue to beat us. If the result was always a 50 - 50 chance then probability would say we have a 50% chance of winning next time. If we have always had a 50 - 50 chance of beating them then losing the last ten in a row would have had a probability of 1024 to 1.

Hah. Good post.

[Danzar]

Well that's me out, definitely can't get to Sydney for a Friday night game, bugger.

7:50pm bounce. A few years back, we drove from Armidale direct to the SCG and just made it. But yes, you would have to leave no later than 1pm.

Edit: And loop around the traffic in Sydney when you arrive. Hmmm.

[Reggi]

I've won handsomely over the years following this very rule. I'd have won even more however would never bet against Sydney when they were ridiculously short before the Hawks semi last year. I know the prices were seriously all over the place because of the Buddy knee factor, but we were never entitled to be anywhere near favourites on the back of a win over StKilda.

That said, if the rule is ever going to be broken, the Pies/Weagles game is when it will happen given it is 4 v 5 and there was not much between them in the end. If not for a seriously bad injury run which is now better, the Eagles probably would have edged the Pies out of 4th.

Maybe I'm just hoping for a Weagles win. We obviously have an excellent recent record against them and they are travelling to Melbourne this week on a 6 day break and if they win will need to come back to Sydney, again on a 6-day break. May just be the straw that breaks that camel's back...

I would prefer an Eagles win, you must go with the numbers plus Eagles have a six day break.

As a footy lover, this is just an awesome finals series - the medias second favorite is already eliminated.

Either way I expect Eagles and C/wood to bash the suitcase out of one another, also looks like the tribunal and injuries will have a big bearing

Could Roughhead and Maxwell get two weeks? MRP will probably be controversial

My only worry is that we have been involved in all the unusual outcomes from this finals structure in terms of making the GF

[Lucky Knickers]

Eagles will have two road trips too.....

[iigrover]

Could Roughhead and Maxwell get two weeks? MRP will probably be controversial

Maxwell sure has. :-)

[Hazcam]

Ive been aware of this for a while, but never put any money down on it.

With the NRL finals now like the AFL, I think I might put $50 on all 4 finals in both codes this weekend, all backing the top 4 loser.

I'm actually going to do the opposite. I can Definately see the cowboys upsetting manly and the raiders beating Souths. I won't put it past freo to choke the crows and eagles to outclass the pies.

[barry]

The fear of straight set exit is greater than the desire for 2 finals wins.

[AnnieH]

Wobbles... Wet Coke Budgies...

Really don't want to see either of them win.

Can we play GWS?

[Beerman]

Either way I expect Eagles and C/wood to bash the suitcase out of one another, also looks like the tribunal and injuries will have a big bearing

Could Roughhead and Maxwell get two weeks? MRP will probably be controversial

Eagles game was pretty "bruise free" based on Luke Darcy on the afl site. I don't have high hopes that it will be a real slug-fest. Still - our preparation has been perfect. Very hard games followed by a week break.

My only regret is that my fantasy has gone off the rails. We had the close regular season win as per plan, but we weren't supposed to meet and beat the pies until the grand final :-(

[crackedactor]

Magpie win

I would prefer an Eagles win, you must go with the numbers plus Eagles have a six day break.

As a footy lover, this is just an awesome finals series - the medias second favorite is already eliminated.

Either way I expect Eagles and C/wood to bash the suitcase out of one another, also looks like the tribunal and injuries will have a big bearing

Could Roughhead and Maxwell get two weeks? MRP will probably be controversial

My only worry is that we have been involved in all the unusual outcomes from this finals structure in terms of making the GF

Can't Believe I am the only one hoping for a Magpie win. They are short of confidence at the moment and two hard games in a row will take its toll. History will mean nothing. Though I feel confident the Eagles will win.

[Ludwig]

Can't Believe I am the only one hoping for a Magpie win. They are short of confidence at the moment and two hard games in a row will take its toll. History will mean nothing. Though I feel confident the Eagles will win.

I am also hoping for a Pies win. And not because I think it will be easier, but rather it's an important hurdle for the Swans to jump to take it to the next level. If they beat the Pies, they will go into the GF full of confidence. They know they can beat WCE, so even though we would be more likely to get in the GF, it would not be the confidence boost that a victory over CW would be. It would be like winning a GF before the real GF. If we can beat the Pies then no one can doubt the GF will be between the two best sides. Even Eddie would have to admit it.

[Red]

I am also hoping for a Pies win. And not because I think it will be easier, but rather it's an important hurdle for the Swans to jump to take it to the next level. If they beat the Pies, they will go into the GF full of confidence. They know they can beat WCE, so even though we would be more likely to get in the GF, it would not be the confidence boost that a victory over CW would be. It would be like winning a GF before the real GF. If we can beat the Pies then no one can doubt the GF will be between the two best sides. Even Eddie would have to admit it.

Except he wouldn't. He'd say how tough they had it going into the Prelim, playing Hawks first-up, exhausting game v. Eagles, coming up against a rested Swans, robbed of recovery time by the NRL, etc etc.

Playing the Pies in the Prelim would make for great drama. What a perfect opportunity for us to break their stranglehold at the worst possible time for them.

[Ludwig]

We broke the Crow hoodoo last week. Now we have to break the Magpie hoodoo.

Yes, of course, Eddie would make every excuse in the book. What a pleasure to see him squirm.