Top 4 finish likelihood

[GoSouth33]

I think we have to try to win both games, irrespective of the consequences. Melbourne have been so badly burned with their tanking practices that I don't think you should ever try not to win a game. It's better to generate a winning culture in a club than a losing one.

[DK_]

I think we have to try to win both games, irrespective of the consequences. Melbourne have been so badly burned with their tanking practices that I don't think you should ever try not to win a game. It's better to generate a winning culture in a club than a losing one.

With the competition for team spots in the finals, I think there's zero chance of anything but maximum effort from the players. The only thing which could result in avoidable losses is Horse experimenting / tweaking, but that's his prerogative. He should use Malthouse's early Xmas present to maximum effect and the name of the game is now finals preparation, not competition points.

[Go Swannies]

We will only finish ahead of the Dockers if Port achieve a major upset. Or the Saints play like they did yesterday. But I think it'd still work in our favour if we beat the Cats and had to play Freo in WA. They are finishing the season with such relatively soft games that a home final might be the perfect ground for an upset.

[ScottH]

I had us pegged for 5th.
So I'm very happy with the weekends outcome, although it was more to do with teams losing than the fact we won!!

[mcs]

I had us pegged for 5th.
So I'm very happy with the weekends outcome, although it was more to do with teams losing than the fact we won!!

That fact, whilst important now, will very much be a footnote in history - hopefully one that reads of the Swans defending the crown. Doesn't matter how you get there (in terms of Top 4), as long as you get there, that's all that matters in the long term

[Bloodthirsty]

Just to be clear, I wasn't talking about tanking. The players will want to win, no doubt. But Longmire will try game plans, test out structures and players. It it works, great, if it doesn't, it's a lesson for the finals. If Tippett isn't fit, he gets a rest and isn't risked. In finals, players put themselves at huge risk of injury with unrealistic or desperate plays, and do crazy things like play on one leg. I'm saying that a win over the next two weeks isn't worth that, and they know it. We all do. As we saw last year, getting some structures right is the main thing. Whether or not we lose by 7 points or not is irrelevant and only impacts the players' momentary pride.

[Jewels]

Just to be clear, I wasn't talking about tanking. The players will want to win, no doubt. But Longmire will try game plans, test out structures and players. It it works, great, if it doesn't, it's a lesson for the finals. If Tippett isn't fit, he gets a rest and isn't risked. In finals, players put themselves at huge risk of injury with unrealistic or desperate plays, and do crazy things like play on one leg. I'm saying that a win over the next two weeks isn't worth that, and they know it. We all do. As we saw last year, getting some structures right is the main thing. Whether or not we lose by 7 points or not is irrelevant and only impacts the players' momentary pride.

Totally agree. I think it's a wonderful chance to get some run into the returning troops, rest the battle weary ones and overall get our game back to where it was a month ago.

[barry]

People say that you need to be top 4 to win a flag, but are the statistics skewed because the swans have won it from 3rd and 4th ?

Maybe the stats are, you need to be top 2 to win a flag, unless you are the Swans, where top 4 is enough.

[mcs]

People say that you need to be top 4 to win a flag, but are the statistics skewed because the swans have won it from 3rd and 4th ?

Maybe the stats are, you need to be top 2 to win a flag, unless you are the Swans, where top 4 is enough.

I often wonder that too - but you would expect that on average, interstate teams are more likely to do well from finishing 3rd and 4th in the league than melbourne teams finishing 3rd and 4th, as they are more used to playing on the road, and with some notable exceptions (Collingwood is one I believe, and geelong of course) have better interstate records than most.

This year is very open I think - I don't buy that Hawthorn is that far out in front of the rest, and I still don't buy the hype around Geelong (perhaps my vision is coloured by the utter asshat of a geelong fan in my office, who is already talking about the need to buy another cup for his wanky office full of wanky geelong memorabilia). freo are a dark horse who can't be underated, but I do think it'll be a close finals series, and if the cards fall right, any of the four teams could win the flag.

[Captain]

If we beat Geelong and over-take them, and Freo finishes above us on percentage, that means we'd be playing them at Pattersons, 3rd v 2nd.

Doubt that will happen. Even if it did, would much rather play Freo in first week of finals then Cats or Hawks. Who have Freo beaten that is any good?

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Been saying it for a while, best case scenario other than finishing 2nd would be 3rd and an away final against Fremantle.

They're very overrated.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i would do anything to ensure we have the best and fittest teams on the field for the finals

if that meant playing a couple of our gun returning players this wknd or next to gain match fitness and the result being we might loose a game or two pre the finals then so be it !!!

who cares now we are in the top 4

eyes on the fries

eyes on the fries

[annew]

Doubt that will happen. Even if it did, would much rather play Freo in first week of finals then Cats or Hawks. Who have Freo beaten that is any good?

One less team in the top 8 than the Swans. Freo have beaten Essendon and Richmond plus lost one to Richmond. Swans have beaten Essendon, Richmond and Collingood plus lost one to Collingwood. We drew with each other so pretty even I would say.