Top 4 finish likelihood

[Bloodthirsty]

I am interested to know what people's view is on our top 4 prospects. As I see it, there are 5 teams in a dogfight for top 4, as if you look at the run home for each one, you can mount a rock-solid case for all of them.

Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Essendon and Sydney.

I'd love to be of the view that with a few key players back and with the team clicking like it did before the bye, that I can see us absolutely dominating. I firmly believe that Tippett added to what we already have will be the key - that extra something that removes any 'scraping over the line' games and replaces them with comfortable wins.

However, there are tough games ahead and the Port loss may come back to haunt us.

Many people don't take Essendon too seriously, perhaps because we're not used to seeing them follow through with anything. You'd have to say though, still, that Essendon would miss if Sydney make it? I can't see Hawthorn, Geelong or Freo missing from here.

Thoughts about us...??

[longmile]

Freo have the easiest run home so its either us or Essendon to miss out of the top4 and I'm not too confident with our last 4 games of the season...

[Doctor]

It may come down to the timing of the release of the ASADA report and the sanctions that come with it as to what happens with Essendon. If we keep winning we'll make the top 4 and if we can't beat one of the top 2 when it matters we won't deserve it anyway, as they'll both have beaten us twice this year.

[jetts32]

^^^ every team we played in the finals, we lost to in the season, it was kind of like during the home and away season we were the Kobe Bryant of football, we were up there and playing great, scoring almost at will, but we weren't rated as the best, then finals came, we went into Lebron James mode and made Adelaide and Collingwood look second rate, like Lebron does when he matches up with anyone.
Then we played Hawks and they started shooting away, getting very confident, but like Lebron we stuck to our hustle and faught the whole way through and came out with an amazing win.

I had fun writing this haha.

[ShockOfHair]

Long story short: Freo look a lock for the four. Tthe Dons and the Swans have a similar run home, playing six of the same teams over the last nine rounds. Neither of us can afford to drop a game.

Essendon have a slightly easier draw but have danger games against Port next week, Collingwood, Carlton and Richmond. Hawthorn looks the one likely loss for them.

For us, Geelong at Skilled looks a likely loss, but tough games against Eagles in Perth, and Collingwood and Hawthorn at ANZ.

You heard it here first: it will come down to the last round, when we play the Hawks and the Bombers play the Tigers.


Current: Swans (4th) 38 131.5% Essendon (3rd) 40 129.5%
Rd Swans Essendon
15 Melb MCG Port ES
16 GWS SCG Bulldogs ES
17 West Coast PS GWS SK
18 Richmond SCG Hawthorn ES
19 Bulldogs ES Collingwood MCG
20 Collingwood ANZ West Coast ES
21 St Kilda SCG North ES
22 Geelong SS Carlton MCG
23 Hawthorn ANZ Richmond MCG

Likely: Swans 62-70 pts Essendon 64-72 pts

[swans_premiers]

Win everygame and we'll finish top 2. Our destiny is still in our hands at this stage.

We did win 10 in a row last year so we're capable.

[ScottH]

I went through the ladder predictor last night (mind you, my tipping is woeful)
I had us either 4th or 5th.
I'm sure the teams above us will drop more games than I had them losing. Probably the same for us too.

[ShockOfHair]

Actually Fremantle's run home isn't all downhill. All winnable but they have danger games against West Coast, Richmond, Carlton and Port Adelaide.

Rd 15: St Kilda at Patersons Stadium
Rd 16: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

[Swansongster]

The beautiful thing about sport is that unexpected results continue to pop up. Even in AFL (see Port and Brisbane winning last week).

Therefore, while it is fair and interesting to speculate, there is much water to pass under many bridges before anybody can count their chickens. Injuries and form (and regulatory jurisprudence) is guaranteed to blur the vision currently held about the future.

On the core evidence of list quality, I think it is fair to adjudicate that the Swans are one of the best four teams in the league. That alone leaves me confident that we will have a double chance come September.

[Melbournehammer]

i think there is another side which has just as good a chance of those you have nominated - richmond. i reckon the round 17 game against us will be critical. they are a pretty good side - and prone to wild mood swings but when they are on they are very very good.

[barry]

Essendon will be stripped of points, so in reality its a battle of 4 teams for a top 4 spot, so we should be a lock in.
Richmond are sneaking up, but I would think they arent top 4 material yet.

So our aim should be top 2, and the only one we can realistically dispose out of top 2 is geelong, who arent as strong as they once were. The game against them may decide their future. Would be handy if the hawks beat them this week.

Our biggest problem is injuries. We are on the brink of our depth at the moment. However with a couple of easy games coming up, we have a small time buffer to start regaining some stars.

[Swansongster]

Essendon will be stripped of points, so in reality its a battle of 4 teams for a top 4 spot, so we should be a lock in.
Richmond are sneaking up, but I would think they arent top 4 material yet.

So our aim should be top 2, and the only one we can realistically dispose out of top 2 is geelong, who arent as strong as they once were. The game against them may decide their future. Would be handy if the hawks beat them this week.

Our biggest problem is injuries. We are on the brink of our depth at the moment. However with a couple of easy games coming up, we have a small time buffer to start regaining some stars.

If the offences occurred in 2012, would they strip points from 2013? Quite possibly, I suppose.

Is it more likely they will have individual players suspended and perhaps a Brownlow revoked as well as monetary and draft pick penalties applied to the club?

I just wish they would get on with. It would be a travesty if we (or any other team) miss the Top four (or a finals spot) at the expense of a team that has been found to be systematic drug cheats. One thing is for sure, the AFL would want a conclusion now or not until after the final rounds and the final series.

[aardvark]

I just wish they would get on with. It would be a travesty if we (or any other team) miss the Top four (or a finals spot) at the expense of a team that has been found to be systematic drug cheats. One thing is for sure, the AFL would want a conclusion now or not until after the final rounds and the final series.

Afl have said no comment until the Asada finish their investigation. Likely to be the end of August.

[Bloodthirsty]

So I guess this Saturday it is better to barrack for Hawthorn, knowing that the Hawks won't be caught, putting us on a more even keel with Geelong? Or does one barrack for the lower-ranked team out of every clash from now on to even things up and drag competing teams down the ladder if possible...?

Freo's run is sweet. But does anyone feel that, critically speaking, Freo and Geelong, if you had to identify weaknesses, are both sort of one-trick ponies compared to Hawthorn and Sydney? Freo with their defensive press and Geelong with their play-on-no-matter-what philosophy? Endless winning can't be sustained that way. If it doesn't work, then what else do they have? They don't seem as rounded as us or Hawthorn, when we're in form. Maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better. I am not looking forward to many more weeks of feeling nervous. I'm too invested in this! Thanks Swans for setting the bar so high!

Whatever happens happens, I guess.

[Swansongster]

Afl have said no comment until the Asada finish their investigation. Likely to be the end of August.

This sort of answers my earlier question?

Bombers may lose premiership points - AFL.com.au