Top 4 finish likelihood

[ernie koala]

According to this article - http://news.com.au/sport/afl/where-w...-1226680333288 - Freo have the easiest run home in the comp. Top 4 is going to be tricky from here.

The only game that looks remotely tricky for them, is this week against the Tigers.... but I'll certainly be tipping Freo.

Essendon have many tricky games and I'd expect them to drop at least a couple of them, particularly without Watson.

The Swans, on other side of the coin, if we only loose 2 games that would be a great effort..... but would still leave us in 5th or 6th spot.....IMO

[AnsweredPrayers]

Have to agree. I expect us to finish 5th. Too many injuries. Players coming back from long term injuries often drag a team down until they find form so I take little comfort from the fact some may be back in time for finals. I think Rohan is more likely to have an influence. At least he'll have some match fitness by then which is more than can be said for Goods, Jetta, Reid.......... Such is life.

[mcs]

The next two weeks are critical if you ask me. Get through them and I reckon we can finish Top 4. Drop one of them and we are in trouble. There is a very high likelihood that come Rd 22/23, Geelong and Hawthorn will have all but sewn up top 2 spots, and may have the opportunity (and will take it) to rest players against us. I think that we need to win all our games against West Coast/Richmond/Bulldogs/St Kilda, and then 1, but probably 2 out of Collingwood/Geelong/Hawthorn to make top 4.

We are the reigning premiers because we are a damn good side, and even with all the guys out, its up to us to stand up and be counted. If we finish top 4, then imo we are as good a chance of any of the other top 4 teams of going all the way. We showed last year that we can win at the MCG, can win big finals away from home.

Keep the faith, boys and girls! We know just how wonderful this club is, and just how good it has become at doing its best in trying circumstances! We can still, and I think we will make the top 4, and from there anything can happen!

[wolftone57]

I believe the deal for Essendons penance has already been done by Vlad and the AFL management. It will be a fine I believe. I don't think they are going to start taking points away, they never have before. I know this is the first doping scandal but in the case of Carlton & Essendon breaching the salary cap they were just fined and in the case of Carlton banned from the draft for a year.

So with all things now equal the Swans should finish 5th if we can't beat Pies, Hawks & Cats. But I think we can beat at least two of them. Our big test is getting over Weagles on their own dunghill because unlike the last couple of years we have quite a few players who have never played there.

[SimonH]

The only way that we were a terribly serious chance (IMO) of finishing ahead of Freo was if we won, and Freo lost, today. Fortunately, it happened!

Looking at those below us who might overtake: the 8th spot team (currently Port, but whomever) is obviously well out of the running. We have our fate in our own hands regarding the 6th and 7th teams (Richmond and Collingwood), because we play both of them and therefore have 8-point games which will make it effectively impossible for them to overtake us if we beat them.

So then it's down to Freo. Even with the extreme ordinariness of their upcoming opponents, they simply don't play a game style that lends itself to 129-point victories, so it's open to question whether they can make up the 20.4% gap. They might, if they can string together three 10-to-12 goal victories while Sydney plays in a similar number of photo finish games. For current purposes, I'll assume they don't overtake our percentage and so they need to make up 2 games on us. The problem is that they're pretty consistent under Lyon?a hallmark of Lyon-coached teams?and if they play near their potential they should win all 6, Carlton in Melbourne being the biggest danger game. There's no individual game that Sydney can't win, but with a schedule of 2 winnable, 2 challenging and 2 very tough games left to go, to expect Sydney to win 5 is probably going too far. 4 would be a pass mark. So I reckon that Freo will probably overtake us.

Then when we look at those above us who we might overtake:

Forget Hawthorn. Essendon, however, don't have a single 'gimme' game in 6 matches. They might be made of sterner stuff than the 2012 self-destruct model, but I still don't think they're tough enough to win a flag, and I reckon the next fortnight will tell the tale. If they win 1 out of their 2 vs Hawthorn and Collingwood, they'll be very tough to run down. If they lose both?and I think they will?then they will pretty definitely lose one of their last 4, making them vulnerable.

With Geelong, they have a relatively simple draw (unless West Coast can find some late-season form), but twice in recent weeks they've started making a habit of losing to mediocre teams, so there must be a chance that they drop a silly one. But like with Collingwood and Richmond, we play them, making it fairly simple: if we can beat Geelong in Geelong, it's at least possible for us to overtake them. If not, then not.

So I reckon our best chance of making the top 4, is not by holding our position against Freo, but by overtaking one of Essendon or Geelong. Could very easily come down to our final round vs Hawthorn, and Essendon's final round vs Richmond. Call it a 50/50 from here. Exciting times ahead.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We'll finish above Fremantle and Essendon.

[Captain]

I think 3rd is our most likely spot. Based on following assumptions:

- We win 4 out of the next 6.
- Freo will drop a game, they won't win every game to come
- Essendon will likely lose 3, starting with Hawthorn this weekend

[Swansongster]

Essendon v. Hawthorn is a good game for us this week.

If we beat Richmond, either result in Melbourne (Hawks win or Essendon win) benefits us. If Hawks win we leap-frog Essendon. If Essendon win, the minor premiership is not out of he question.

Meanwhile Adelaide's resurgent is also good for the Swans. Freo will be nervous about hosting them this week.

It's amazing what a difference a good win makes to my outlook for the rest of the year. I am bullish about our form and would back us to beat anybody at the moment - even with the starting 22 from yesterday.

[barry]

Our game against the cats will decide who gets 2nd spot

[Dosser]

My ladder predictor sees us coming 5th. I am now hoping for some upsets (in our favour).

[billyboob]

Second. We'll win all our games here on in. Minor premiers if Hawks drop an extra along with a loss to us in round 23. Too much coffee today to be downbeat about anything.

[cyanide]

Basically, if we win all 6 remaining games we will be top 2 no matter what the other results are. If we win 5 out of 6 we will be top 4 no matter what. If we win 4 out of 6 we will need other results to go our way.

If we drop any of the next 4 games we be very unlikely to make top 4, as it would leave us needing to beat both Geelong and Hawthorn.

If we win all of the next 4 games and jag one of those final two (most likely Hawthorn at home, although we did beat Geelong away in the corresponding fixture in 2011) we'll be a lock for top 4 and premiership contenders.

Win all 6 and we'll be top 2 with a home qualifying final and arguably premiership favourites.

Luckily for us the coaches and the players will not be engaged in this futile exercise...the only thing they'll be thinking about is the Tigers this weekend.

[Ludwig]

Yet another damning article on Essendon's drug program:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-in-doctor-shopping-to-beat-ban-20130722-2qf3x.html

It's hard to imagine anything but severe penalties for them. Even if half of this stuff is true, there's no way the AFL can let them play finals this year. I have already written them out of the finals picture. I put us in 3rd now. Hope they can beat the Hawks.

Brad Johnson also thinks we are a shoe-in to repeat.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/07/23/369808_news.html

I also heard Cam Mooney raving about us too. He was at the game.

Methinks too much Swans love going around. Danger time!

[dimelb]

"... and the prescription-only drug Cerebrolysin, used to treat dementia." (The Age)
That seems to have worked out well.

[Jewels]

Just did the ladder predictor and had us finishing third with the second best percentage. If memory serves me correctly, that finish has worked out pretty well for us in the past!