Top 4 finish likelihood

[Ludwig]

A team certain to win every game! That is the most ridiculous comment I have seen on here this year. They may well win every game, but nothing is certain in footy as this weekend has made evident.

Technically correct. I should have said 'will be heavily favoured to win their remaining 4 games against GWS, Melbourne, Port and St. Kilda'. You would have to give Port a chance, even though it's in Perth. Nonetheless, it would be very surprising if they dropped any of these games.

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[SimonH]

A dream weekend for Sydney (although for large parts of today's game, it didn't look like such a dream in the most important part!). Essendon are wobbly to say the least, and they have two teams left who will likely have plenty to play for in Carlton and North Melbourne (if next weekend's matches go to ladder position, they'll both still have a chance of running Port down for 8th), as well as a tricky assignment in West Coast and finishing with Richmond who on current form are miles ahead of them. So our fate is absolutely in our hands? if we lose 2 more matches than Essendon from here, we don't deserve to finish top 4.

One thing that I think is potentially dangerous, that's only just occurred to me, is the prospect of playing the same team twice in a row, if we lose the first game against them. Even though 4th is nothing to sneeze at? and we do have a history of shocking the minor premiers in the first week when we finish 4th? I wouldn't much like a scenario where we play Hawthorn in round 23, and if we lose to them, we play them again the next week.

In a previous year I'd back Freo to drop at least one game, but now they've been re-made in the Lyon mould and are now a super-consistent team. Geelong, who seem to almost only lose against teams they shouldn't be troubled by, would love a bit of that consistency now.

[MightyBloods]

Did the ladder predictor....two wins (against the Pies and Saints) should get us 4th. Drop the Pies game and only winning one may put us 5th and an uncomfortable home final against Port. Interestingly, if we only win against the Saints I have the Tiges squeezing into 4th. If we win 3 games (including Pies, Saints and Hawks I have us finishing 3rd...behind Hawks and Cats. If we win 3 games (Pies, Saints and Cats), I have us in 2nd place behing the Hawks. This all assumes Essendon do not lose any premiership points (ie our home final vs Pt Adelaide may well be vs Nth Melb).
Clearly, the Pies game is a must win. It will give us the double chance. In addition, beating the Cats and not Hawks would put us in the top 2.
I'll need my scotch again for next Sat night!!

[ScottH]

Did the ladder predictor....two wins (against the Pies and Saints) should get us 4th. Drop the Pies game and only winning one may put us 5th and an uncomfortable home final against Port. Interestingly, if we only win against the Saints I have the Tiges squeezing into 4th. If we win 3 games (including Pies, Saints and Hawks I have us finishing 3rd...behind Hawks and Cats. If we win 3 games (Pies, Saints and Cats), I have us in 2nd place behing the Hawks. This all assumes Essendon do not lose any premiership points (ie our home final vs Pt Adelaide may well be vs Nth Melb).
Clearly, the Pies game is a must win. It will give us the double chance. In addition, beating the Cats and not Hawks would put us in the top 2.
I'll need my scotch again for next Sat night!!

Unfortunately, 5th is still a very real possibility, unless there are more upsets on the cards.
I'm still banking on 3rd.

[0918330512]

With Freo winning tonight, they are certain to finish the rest of the H and A season undefeated

There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes & that nothing in football is certain!

Geelong losing to the Crows & North within 3 weeks and Hawthorn copping a 7 goal flogging from the Tigers are evidence that the footy Gods like to keep things interesting

[Bloodthirsty]

Unfortunately, 5th is still a very real possibility, unless there are more upsets on the cards.
I'm still banking on 3rd.

3rd is going to be a big problem, given that Freo may finish second with their easy run home and likely boost in percentage. Playing them at Pattersons will be a huge task. However, last year I knew in my bones that Adelaide's soft run home would be a far inferior preparation to our tough run home. If the cards fall this way and we play Freo, we'll be a lot more battle-hardened than them. That's the only positive.

[ScottH]

3rd is going to be a big problem, given that Freo may finish second with their easy run home and likely boost in percentage. Playing them at Pattersons will be a huge task. However, last year I knew in my bones that Adelaide's soft run home would be a far inferior preparation to our tough run home. If the cards fall this way and we play Freo, we'll be a lot more battle-hardened than them. That's the only positive.

And that is the thing. Come the first finals game, all previous form is thrown out the window.
We proved that last year too.

[RogueSwan]

... That's the only positive.

... and I don't think Subiaco holds any fears for the team. We have won our last four over there, the last loss being in 2009 Rnd 5, against Freo 121-100. We haven't lost to the Weagles at Subi since Rnd 16 2007, 112-100! Granted this years Freo is a lot different but we will have a decent break before the game.
Personally, I'd like us to finish on the opposite side of the draw (preferably 1st and 2nd not 3rd and 4th) and then meet the GF, gotta love an all interstate final.

[mcs]

3rd is going to be a big problem, given that Freo may finish second with their easy run home and likely boost in percentage. Playing them at Pattersons will be a huge task. However, last year I knew in my bones that Adelaide's soft run home would be a far inferior preparation to our tough run home. If the cards fall this way and we play Freo, we'll be a lot more battle-hardened than them. That's the only positive.

3rd and an away final to Freo is probably the next worst result apart from finishing 5th. But it would be an interesting game - we haven't played Freo over there for a number of years, but our game style now is much more suited to Subiaco than it has been previously. Plus I think, in terms of head to head matching up, Freo are better suited to playing us in Sydney (at the SCG or ANZ) then they are suited to playing us in Perth. I'd give us every hope of knocking them off over there like we knocked off Adelaide at AAMI stadium last year.

I do think we should have too much for Collingwood if we play well, and frankly it'll take a pretty huge upset for a weak and generally poor St Kilda to trouble us the week after. Barring essendon suddenly finding its form of earlier in the season (maybe Hird has a stash he kept at home from last year he can pep them up on ), you would expect them to drop at least one game, which should see us finish top 4.

Other than that, who knows where in that top 4 we will finish. I have a feeling we may knock off one of Geelong or Hawks (Hawks more likely to me, and they could potentailly have little to play for in the last round), which may give us a hope to finish top 2

But whatever happens, we should be battle hardened come finals time last year. And we lost 3 of the last 4 last year and things turned out ok

[swantastic]

3rd is going to be a big problem, given that Freo may finish second with their easy run home and likely boost in percentage. Playing them at Pattersons will be a huge task. However, last year I knew in my bones that Adelaide's soft run home would be a far inferior preparation to our tough run home. If the cards fall this way and we play Freo, we'll be a lot more battle-hardened than them. That's the only positive.

not worried bout playing freo any where...

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3rd and an away final to Freo is probably the next worst result apart from finishing 5th. But it would be an interesting game - we haven't played Freo over there for a number of years, but our game style now is much more suited to Subiaco than it has been previously. Plus I think, in terms of head to head matching up, Freo are better suited to playing us in Sydney (at the SCG or ANZ) then they are suited to playing us in Perth. I'd give us every hope of knocking them off over there like we knocked off Adelaide at AAMI stadium last year.

I do think we should have too much for Collingwood if we play well, and frankly it'll take a pretty huge upset for a weak and generally poor St Kilda to trouble us the week after. Barring essendon suddenly finding its form of earlier in the season (maybe Hird has a stash he kept at home from last year he can pep them up on ), you would expect them to drop at least one game, which should see us finish top 4.

Other than that, who knows where in that top 4 we will finish. I have a feeling we may knock off one of Geelong or Hawks (Hawks more likely to me, and they could potentailly have little to play for in the last round), which may give us a hope to finish top 2

But whatever happens, we should be battle hardened come finals time last year. And we lost 3 of the last 4 last year and things turned out ok

well said

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we will finish 1st/2nd no doubt so all u worry warts...chill out...the only game we mite lose is v cats

[Swansongster]

God I hope these phalluses don't taint the second of our back-to-back premierships.

I almost want them to play so that there is no asterisk in the history books. However, I also want those responsible for the blight on the world's greatest ball game that this saga has generated to be held accountable. And, then a few extra lashes with the cat o' nine tails added in for good measure.

Dons need to take a reality check

[dawson]

We've dodged a bullet with the Bombers likely to lose to the Eagles. That leaves them, Collingwood and Richmond all on 52 points.
We beat St Kilda and one of Geelong/Hawthorn and we will finish 4th

[Go Swannies]

I was more nervous about this game than the end of ours last night. It means that Collingwood, Essendon and the Tigers have to win two more games than us out of the last three. And presuming Freo win this afternoon (I'll bless Sheads if they lose) then they have to win one more than us of those three. It means we can be Top 4 without the Bombers forfeiting points.

[Bloodthirsty]

Can't see Freo dropping a game from here, but the Hawks (play Pies) and Cats (play Eagles in Perth) have decent challenges next week, as does Essendon who will probably lose to NM. Hopefully we get a round of results go our way again.

[DamY]

Really have to win at least 2 more games to make top 4.