Top 4 finish likelihood

[top40]

The only way that we were a terribly serious chance (IMO) of finishing ahead of Freo was if we won, and Freo lost, today. Fortunately, it happened!

Looking at those below us who might overtake: the 8th spot team (currently Port, but whomever) is obviously well out of the running. We have our fate in our own hands regarding the 6th and 7th teams (Richmond and Collingwood), because we play both of them and therefore have 8-point games which will make it effectively impossible for them to overtake us if we beat them.

So then it's down to Freo. Even with the extreme ordinariness of their upcoming opponents, they simply don't play a game style that lends itself to 129-point victories, so it's open to question whether they can make up the 20.4% gap. They might, if they can string together three 10-to-12 goal victories while Sydney plays in a similar number of photo finish games. For current purposes, I'll assume they don't overtake our percentage and so they need to make up 2 games on us. The problem is that they're pretty consistent under Lyon?a hallmark of Lyon-coached teams?and if they play near their potential they should win all 6, Carlton in Melbourne being the biggest danger game. There's no individual game that Sydney can't win, but with a schedule of 2 winnable, 2 challenging and 2 very tough games left to go, to expect Sydney to win 5 is probably going too far. 4 would be a pass mark. So I reckon that Freo will probably overtake us.

Then when we look at those above us who we might overtake:

Forget Hawthorn. Essendon, however, don't have a single 'gimme' game in 6 matches. They might be made of sterner stuff than the 2012 self-destruct model, but I still don't think they're tough enough to win a flag, and I reckon the next fortnight will tell the tale. If they win 1 out of their 2 vs Hawthorn and Collingwood, they'll be very tough to run down. If they lose both?and I think they will?then they will pretty definitely lose one of their last 4, making them vulnerable.

With Geelong, they have a relatively simple draw (unless West Coast can find some late-season form), but twice in recent weeks they've started making a habit of losing to mediocre teams, so there must be a chance that they drop a silly one. But like with Collingwood and Richmond, we play them, making it fairly simple: if we can beat Geelong in Geelong, it's at least possible for us to overtake them. If not, then not.

So I reckon our best chance of making the top 4, is not by holding our position against Freo, but by overtaking one of Essendon or Geelong. Could very easily come down to our final round vs Hawthorn, and Essendon's final round vs Richmond. Call it a 50/50 from here. Exciting times ahead.

Your assessment is comprehensive and well thought through. Nevertheless, I can't help but feel a glass half empty approach to the present Sydney Swans .We might not be the best team in the competition, but we do have the best mid field, along with impressive key defenders and key forwards.

Sydney's last six games in the Home and Away season stand like this:

Very likely wins- Bulldogs (Away), St Kilda (Home)
Fairly likely wins- Richmond and Collingwood (both at Home)
Even money-Hawthorn (Home)
Marginal underdogs-Geelong (Away)

I've got 17 wins and 1 draw, with a Second place finish. That would mean that for only the second time in the 32 year history of the Sydney Swans, they would host a Qualifying Final game.

[Bloodthirsty]

"... and the prescription-only drug Cerebrolysin, used to treat dementia." (The Age)
That seems to have worked out well.

Just on the Essendon thing...if even a fraction of what Dean Robinson said last night is true, I can't imagine Essendon not neing stripped of points. However, it will be completely irrelevant to the Swans as we will finish above them anyway.

Also, on their 'expert' panel, Mark McVeigh came across as a real tool. His head is so far up James Hird's @@@ that it was uncomfortable to listen to his arrogant and blind bias. He even contradicted Hird's own admissions. The whole panel was so scared to say anything bad against the 'boy's club', that they avoided the discussion of obvious logic and honest opinion like the plague.

[giant]

Just on the Essendon thing...if even a fraction of what Dean Robinson said last night is true, I can't imagine Essendon not neing stripped of points. However, it will be completely irrelevant to the Swans as we will finish above them anyway.

Also, on their 'expert' panel, Mark McVeigh came across as a real tool. His head is so far up James Hird's @@@ that it was uncomfortable to listen to his arrogant and blind bias. He even contradicted Hird's own admissions. The whole panel was so scared to say anything bad against the 'boy's club', that they avoided the discussion of obvious logic and honest opinion like the plague.

Maybe, but in what season? I just don't see there is any chance of this being resolved in the 2013 season.

[Bloodthirsty]

Maybe, but in what season? I just don't see there is any chance of this being resolved in the 2013 season.

FWIW, I just think that a) the AFL can't risk Essendon being successful in the finals series, and b) if you were going to hand down a points penalty so that you looked tough but really didn't want to disenfranchise one of the big clubs by thwarting a genuine premiership tilt, you would strip them of points this year, when other teams are likely to win the flag anyway, and this also wipes the slate clean for next year and beyond.

[Matimbo]

Is there actually any precendent in the AFL for stripping points during the season?

It was done in the NRL to the Bulldogs where they lost their entire season's points, but for gross salary cap rorts. And also various NRL clubs have lost the points for one win - usually for a player interchange infringement i.e. one too many on the field at a game-changing moment.

I guess what I'm asking is why is there currently an expectation that a penalty on the Bombers will in fact be points stripping ... other than media speculation?? Has the AFL mentioned it? The usual response is fines and/or draft pick penalties - although I acknowledge this is far from a usual situation.

[grarmy]

I guess what I'm asking is why is there currently an expectation that a penalty on the Bombers will in fact be points stripping ... other than media speculation?? Has the AFL mentioned it? The usual response is fines and/or draft pick penalties - although I acknowledge this is far from a usual situation.

If the ASDA report is anything like the Ziggy findings, the outcome for the Bombers will be severe. There is no way the AFL will let them play finals if found guilty of doping no matter if the drugs were 'legal' or not. The whole saga of injecting players with weirdo enhancement stuff is a disgrace. They will be heavily sanctioned - expect loss of all premiership points and possibly the Brownlow to Watson (technically he got it fraudulently didn't he?). Anything less would incur the wrath of the football community, sponsors, and anyone else who has a scintilla of respect for the integrity of sport. If proven that Hird was the mastermind and ultimate manager of this saga, then he should be banned from the game. God almighty, they ban trainers for doping horses, what penalty is too harsh for doping humans?

[DK_]

Is there actually any precendent in the AFL for stripping points during the season?

It was done in the NRL to the Bulldogs where they lost their entire season's points, but for gross salary cap rorts. And also various NRL clubs have lost the points for one win - usually for a player interchange infringement i.e. one too many on the field at a game-changing moment.

I guess what I'm asking is why is there currently an expectation that a penalty on the Bombers will in fact be points stripping ... other than media speculation?? Has the AFL mentioned it? The usual response is fines and/or draft pick penalties - although I acknowledge this is far from a usual situation.

The AFL has mentioned it. Operations Manager maybe?

[wolftone57]

Is there actually any precendent in the AFL for stripping points during the season?

It was done in the NRL to the Bulldogs where they lost their entire season's points, but for gross salary cap rorts. And also various NRL clubs have lost the points for one win - usually for a player interchange infringement i.e. one too many on the field at a game-changing moment.

I guess what I'm asking is why is there currently an expectation that a penalty on the Bombers will in fact be points stripping ... other than media speculation?? Has the AFL mentioned it? The usual response is fines and/or draft pick penalties - although I acknowledge this is far from a usual situation.

Richmond VFL Under 19's side was docked points when Ray Jordan was coach in Royce Hart's first season at the Tigers. They would have been minor premier but due to playing an unregistered player they did not play finals. Hart did though. He played in the Reserves and kicked the winning goal a 60 metre spiral punt. I thought Fitzroy were deducted points in a season but I can't find any evidence at the moment.

As to top 4 likelihood, either 2nd or 3rd.

[Swansongster]

The AFL has mentioned it. Operations Manager maybe?

I think your right. In a press conference, he said that (paraphrased) The AFL Commission has the power to bring down any number of penalties on Essendon if deemed necessary, including fines, draft exclusions and loss of competition points.

[Bloodthirsty]

As to top 4 likelihood, either 2nd or 3rd.

If the Roos pull off an upset tonight, 2nd is looking like a decent possibility. Don't want to finish 4th though and have to play the Hawks at the MCG first up. 2nd or 3rd would not only be an amazing achievement given our injuries, but our best chance of gettting straight through to the prelim.

[Ludwig]

I hope Hawthorn go undefeated until they meet us in Round 23. If we too can go undefeated as well, then Hawthorn would be a game and a half in first place and would remain in first even if they lost to us. So they could even afford to rest key players. The Hawks big fear would be facing Geelong. So if the Cats finish 3rd, it would be a good result for both us and Hawhtorn. Second would be a good result for us as we would probably play the Cats at ANZ.

[Swansongster]

Carn North (and the Tiges). We can still finish top. On sale at $5.80 through Betfair. Probably a bit skinny but not totally out of the question.

[Triple B]

The Hawks big fear would be facing Geelong. So if the Cats finish 3rd, it would be a good result for both us and Hawhtorn. Second would be a good result for us as we would probably play the Cats at ANZ.

That scenario would set up a probable Hawks/Geelong PF. I doubt very much that would be Hawthorns preference...

In all honesty, running 2nd is the best result for us as far as the probable path to the GF is concerned, even better than 1st, but absolutely anything can happen between now and then....

[undy]

Carn North (and the Tiges). We can still finish top. On sale at $5.80 through Betfair. Probably a bit skinny but not totally out of the question.

North are doing their bit right now, but anticipating q4 fadeout...

[Ludwig]

That scenario would set up a probable Hawks/Geelong PF. I doubt very much that would be Hawthorns preference...

In all honesty, running 2nd is the best result for us as far as the probable path to the GF is concerned, even better than 1st, but absolutely anything can happen between now and then....

That's what I said. Second would be a good result for us as we would play Geelong (3rd) at home.