Top 4 finish likelihood

[Ludwig]

Just imagine if Carlton finish 9th and the Dons don't lose premiership points. Malthouse would go nuts.

It's hard to imagine the Bombers playing finals this year. It would be too much of a scandal.

I think we should win every game up to the last 2 big ones. Then it's anyone's guess. It may well come down to relative injury lists. I don't think anyone will overtake Hawthorn for 1st this year. If they beat Geelong on the weekend, we've got a shot at top 2, otherwise we will likely settle for top 4. Freo are a real possibility to go undefeated from here on.

The Eagles and Magpies look very beatable at this moment, although they are a threat if we don't bring our best game. I am not that worried about Richmond either. They are a talented team, and well-balanced, but they are not a pressure team. They don't tackle and don't move the ball so well when put under pressure. We will have to play our pressure game to win, but that goes without saying.

[hot potato]

The Bombers situation will be sorted in August, but if Colless can't figure it out, then what hope have we got to figure it out.
The Dons have to drop some games soon, the pressure on the group must be massive.
Sydney just have to stay composed, Listen up to all the coaches and enjoy the journey .
HP

[mcs]

We just need to keep winning, hopefully stop the bad injury run we are having, and everything will take care of itself.

To me, its pretty clear we have 4 games that should prove straight forward - Melbourne, GWS, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda
1 game which will be tough, but on recent form against them we should win, but far from an easy fixture - West Coast
1 game which on this season's form we should win (but history has not been kind) - Collingwood.
1 game which we should be winning, but will be a toughy - Richmond
2 very tough games - Geelong, Hawthorn

We currently sit on 9 1/2 wins. I think a minimum of 15 1/2 will be required, but to be sure I think we will need 16 1/2.

That leaves us needing to win our 4 more straightforward games and winning 3 of the remaining 5 at a bare minimum. I think most likely, we will need to win one out of the two against Geelong and Hawthorn. Certainly difficult but not impossible, especially as Hawthorn may have top spot well and truly stitched up by Rd 23, and geelong may comfortably be top 2/top 4 by Rd 22.

The one good thing is that while we are down on troops at the moment, we have 2 games that we should do comfortably, despite the absentees. We need to start getting our troops back pretty soon after that though, or we will eventually come up short due to missing some very good footballers.

[MightyBloods]

The rumour is strong that there will be premiership points docked as part of the penalty. The AFL keep saying that they are confident and have requested ASADA to complete the investigation so that the penalty can be announced PRIOR to the finals (ie August). This tells me that the AFL doesn't want to be embarrassed.with the Bombers playing on the big finals stage. The AFL and all of us saw a trailer to what could happen with the boos to Jobe Watson in Perth. And in my opinion, I believe most of the crowd wren't having a personal go at Jobe but a bigger go at the AFL to allow him to play.

[Swansongster]

The rumour is strong that there will be premiership points docked as part of the penalty. The AFL keep saying that they are confident and have requested ASADA to complete the investigation so that the penalty can be announced PRIOR to the finals (ie August). This tells me that the AFL doesn't want to be embarrassed.with the Bombers playing on the big finals stage. The AFL and all of us saw a trailer to what could happen with the boos to Jobe Watson in Perth. And in my opinion, I believe most of the crowd wren't having a personal go at Jobe but a bigger go at the AFL to allow him to play.

My thoughts as well.

[ernie koala]

With Essendon likely to either drop 3- 4 games from here, or be docked points by the AFL.

We should finish above them, therefore top 4 if we win a minimum of 5 from the 8 left.

Freo has what looks the easiest run from here, but the thing with them is they keep other teams in the game with their low scoring.

It wouldn't surprise me if they were to drop a couple of games unexpectedly...Can they keep their defensive press up for every quarter of every game....doubt it.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong (which will be my tip- it's time) then our game with Geelong at Kadinia park could be for 2nd place....That'll be hard but not impossible.

Prediction :
1) Hawks
2) Cats
3) Swans
4) Freo
5) Tigers
then whoever

[Swansongster]

Prediction :
1) Hawks
2) Cats
3) Swans
4) Freo
5) Tigers
then whoever

This is about how I see it. If we could get even just half of our injureds back, I'd fancy us at the G against the Cats. Not as intimidating as a game at Kardinia Park.

[bloods1984]

I wouldnt lock the cats in for top 4 just yet

[The Big Cat]

There is a possibility that if Essendon loses points they will be awarded to the teams they beat. This will hurt the Swans in some way as it will give Freo 4 extra points as they lost to them whereas we have those points anyway! Fairest way would be to just take Essendon's points and don't neutralise hard fought wins by teams who have beaten them. Also the teams that play them twice would be given a freebie compared to those who play them once. The only way for it to work and not comprise other teams wins and losses is to say that Essendon will be penalised, say, 30 points and not attach these to any games.

[Swansongster]

There is a possibility that if Essendon loses points they will be awarded to the teams they beat. This will hurt the Swans in some way as it will give Freo 4 extra points as they lost to them whereas we have those points anyway! Fairest way would be to just take Essendon's points and don't neutralise hard fought wins by teams who have beaten them. Also the teams that play them twice would be given a freebie compared to those who play them once. The only way for it to work and not comprise other teams wins and losses is to say that Essendon will be penalised, say, 30 points and not attach these to any games.

Won't happen.

[MightyBloods]

Won't happen.

Agree. That newspaper article was to help sell papers. In any code or comp I cant think of any penalty to a team that gave points to other clubs....only the penalty of that team being docked.

[barry]

Won't happen.

Agreed. Teams that lost to Essendon wont get the points back. However once Essendon realise that they wont make finals (either before or after points stripped), they may put the cue in the rack, and be easy beats for the last few rounds.

Plus, the wont have Jobe and a host of other players avaliable to play.

[Ludwig]

Essendon's last 6 games are all against top 8 contenders. I don't think the AFL want there to be an outcome on Essendon's penalties until after the H&A season ends, because it would be unfair to the competition if, say, it was announced that Essendon would lose premiership points and players would suspended before the last 2 games were played. That would seem to give an advantage to those teams (Carlton and Richmond in this case) over teams that Essendon had already beaten. The AFL might be delaying the conclusion of this investigation to drag it out just enough not to prejudice the 2013 competition. But in the end I don't think they will be playing finals this year.

[ShockOfHair]

Agreed. Teams that lost to Essendon wont get the points back. However once Essendon realise that they wont make finals (either before or after points stripped), they may put the cue in the rack, and be easy beats for the last few rounds.

Plus, the wont have Jobe and a host of other players avaliable to play.

Going by the Melbourne Storm experience, I'd wouldn't assume the Bombers will run dea.

If they're missing half their team, they'll look just like... us!

[Bloodthirsty]

Big game today - Port v Hawks. Hawks without Sewell and Franklin, in what is supposed to be wet weather on Port's home deck. Hoping for an upset there to help our top 4 chances.