Swans 2013 Draft Strategy

[liz]

I just went and watched Lobb's highlight package on afl.com.au

While I think highlights packages can be very misleading in terms of understanding a player's whole game, they can give you a glimpse of what they may be capable of. His shows some good taps to advantage, several excellent contested marks, some follow up at ground level and a couple of snapped goals.

[GordonS]

lets not forget that lobb is being a little overhyped due to the lack of kpps and big bodies in the draft

[Ajn]

by a conservative estimation we have 15 senior mids and 2 rooks.
Rucks 1 senior 2 rookie (both not ready) (including US import)
FWD
Not hard to see the need to pick up the best available... may be apeness, but think Lobb is the best pure ruck

[ugg]

15 senior mids? Can you list them?

The thing about mids is that you can never have enough of them. Despite all our injuries last year the midfield group was relatively untouched and I'm not sure how we would have fared if there was significant injuries to JPK KJ and or Hanners

[liz]

15 senior mids? Can you list them?

The thing about mids is that you can never have enough of them. Despite all our injuries last year the midfield group was relatively untouched and I'm not sure how we would have fared if there was significant injuries to JPK KJ and or Hanners

Guess it depends on how liberally one defines a "mid". We have 33 on the list at the moment. The following are definitely not mids:

Pyke, Tippett, Richards, Grundy, LRT, AJ, Buddy (in the conventional sense), Reid, Laidler, Lockyer.

Shaw and Smith have midfield capabilities but haven't played there and are needed in the backline. Malceski is a pseudo mid in that he does push up to the wings and forward at times, but in no way can be described as an onballer. Rampe may have midfield capabilities but that would be pure guesswork. Similarly, to describe any of Towers, Dick or Membrey as midfielders would be pushing things to the extreme. McGlynn can play through the middle. Jack and, especially, Harry could make the transition but haven't really been used in those roles in the senior team.

Goodes could be classified as a mid, given he has played there in the past. A forward line of Buddy, Reid and Tippett might free him up to play more in the middle of the ground.

Rohan we don't really know much about, position wise, but he's a fringe midfielder at best at this stage.

So that is 19 players of our current 33 who you'd be hard pushed to describe as midfielder at this stage - and that is including all of Goodes, McGlynn and Cunningham as mids. Leaving a total of 14 senior mids (including those three). But that is stretching things.

[aardvark]

One hit from Mummy or Cox ect. and Lobb would snap in half. There's no way he'd be ready next year even as a fill in. If we pick him with Pick 15 I'll eat my cap.

[Ajn]

15 senior mids? Can you list them?

1 Tim Membrey 188 89 26.05.94 Traralgon/Murray U18 0 0 0 0
3 Jarrad McVeigh 183 82 07.04.85 Rd 1,2004 Pennant Hills/NSW-ACT U18 25 219 16 157
4 Daniel Hannebery 181 81 24.02.91 Rd 16,2009 Kew Rovers/Xavier College/Oakleigh U18 24 101 17 43
5 Ryan O'Keefe 187 88 24.01.81 Rd 10,2000 Strathmore/Calder U18 25 282 12 260
6 Tom Mitchell 181 83 31.05.93 Rd 10,2013 Ashburton/Claremont (WA) 14 14 11 11
7 Harry Cunningham 180 80 06.12.93 Rd 1,2012 Turvey Park/NSW-ACT U18/Wagga (NSW) 5 6 4 4
12 Josh Kennedy 188 96 20.06.88 Rd 9,2008 Xavier College/Sandringham U18/Hawthorn 25 111 14 67
14 Craig Bird 179 85 21.01.89 Rd 1,2008 Nelson Bay/NSW-ACT U18 23 110 10 47
15 Kieren Jack 178 78 28.06.87 Rd 6,2007 Pennant Hills/NSW-ACT U18 25 139 24 102
16 Gary Rohan 189 89 07.06.91 Rd 7,2010 Cobden/Geelong U18 5 27 5 23
21 Ben McGlynn 171 75 06.08.85 Rd 10,2006 Wentworth (NSW)/Bendigo U18/Box Hill Hawks/Hawthorn 21 125 30 141
26 Luke Parker 183 86 25.10.92 Rd 8,2011 Langwarrin/Dandenong U18 25 57 22 35
32 Lewis Jetta 181 77 04.05.89 Rd 1,2010 Swan Districts (WA) 13 78 10 71
33 Brandon Jack 182 77 25.05.94 Rd 11,2013 Willoughby Junior AFL Club (NSW)/Pennant Hills (NSW) 9 9 7 7
37 Adam Goodes 191 100 08.01.80 Rd 1,1999 Horsham/North Ballarat U18 12 331 20 409

I included Membrey as I think that's his role going forward, could easily include Dick, Towers, or even Rampe (who will be able to play mid next year)

[Ajn]

As for rooks I listed
27 Daniel Robinson 183 84 03.07.94 Mosman Swans JFC (NSW) 0 0 0 0
44 Jake Lloyd 180 75 20.09.93 Horsham (VIC)/North Ballarat U18 0 0 0 0

But could easily include Perris to make 3 spares.
Not saying all are ready but are at different stages of development along the path to ensuring they can build their engines to take over from the vets when they retire

From my estimation we need to replace Bolton and Lamb as mids from last year, despite the fact they primarily were fwds last year.
So where is the urgency to get a mid, when it is only going to be a long shot at best.... if one jet slips through then fine, otherwise look at the needs not just the next best player.

[Ludwig]

One hit from Mummy or Cox ect. and Lobb would snap in half. There's no way he'd be ready next year even as a fill in. If we pick him with Pick 15 I'll eat my cap.

Count me in. I can't see why at this point in his career Lobb is any more of a hopeful prospect than Naismith or Pat Mitchell. Why should we spend our first pick to get a third prospective replacement for Pyke 4 or 5 years down the road. We just need some ruck insurance to get us through next year. I saw that Renouf was delisted by PA with the promise to redraft him as a rookie. If he wasn't under an injury cloud, he would be one I would try to sign up in lieu of using pick 53. He may not be great, but at least he can play senior footy when fit.

We are fortunate that after Tom Boyd there's not that much difference in potential in the rest of the first round. The projection is that someone like Lewis Taylor, Blake Acres, or Jonathan Marsh will be available at pick 15. All of these have some serious credentials to suggest they could become elite AFL players. I think that's what we should be looking for at pick 15.

I wouldn't be looking at a ruckman before pick 44. I agree we need a backup for Pyke, but can't see how the untried ruckmen on offer in the draft fit that requirement.

With picks 32 and 35, I would be focusing on KPPs, with the hope of getting 1 or 2 of McStay, Giles, Hourigan and Cutler.

[Dosser]

One hit from Mummy or Cox ect. and Lobb would snap in half. There's no way he'd be ready next year even as a fill in. If we pick him with Pick 15 I'll eat my cap.

Totally agree. The Swans never draft a ruckman with an early pick as we prefer to pinch one that is almost developed from another club (Ball, Jolly, Mumford). Ruckmen are such speculative picks that it is best to wait and see when they have been in the system for a while before we get them, rather than waste an early pick.

[Melbourne_Blood]

The only difference being that Lobb has a couple of years development on must rucks in the draft, being 20 years old. If Pyke does go down, the Ruck is going to be an issue. That's forgetting Pyke is going to be stepping up from second to 1st Ruck anyway, and we've lost Mummy, so we're already going to be weaker in the Ruck to an extent ( depending on how you rate both Mummy and Pyke). We have no other significant deficiencies that I could note. It may be overs relatively speaking, but if pick 15 is what it takes to get the best ruck option then I'd be happy with that.

[GordonS]

but lobb has only played just the one season at the highest wafl level. i dont quite think he has the experience yet, hence why he's been labelled a developing ruckman by most commentators

[Melbourne_Blood]

I don't disagree he's still developing, but he's further developed than the Tac cup guys, and the Wafl is a top league. Is it better to draft a guy with potential like Lobb, or an older ruckman who likely has reached his peak? I guess well find out in a week how the swans recruiters view it.

[Ajn]

[QUOTE=Ludwig;630285]The projection is that someone like Lewis Taylor, Blake Acres, or Jonathan Marsh will be available at pick 15.
QUOTE]

Can't see a 174 mid who would be way down the order of our midfield, another quick but developing mid or a raw project like Marsh can be elite...

Pick 15 is not likely to be elite, but if Pyke goes down we need a good tap ruck, such as a 205cm, med build, tap ruck who can provide good insurance and even keep pressure on Pyke to perform.

If a Freeman or top ten slip through, otherwise best ruck or def.

P.S. This is just an opinion...

[Ludwig]

I hope the Rory Lobb rumours are just a ploy to trick GWS on taking him at pick 14, thinking he may not be available at 29, because they would be looking for a developing ruckman as well. With the likelihood they will take forward Boyd with 1 and midfielder Kelly with 2, perhaps they will be looking for a ruckman with one of the next 2 picks. I can't see the Swans leaking draft strategy information to the press. It would just seem to give GWS, who have already shafted us during the trade period, another opportunity to steal our first choice player just before us.