To challenge for the Flag in 2016....

[Nico]

No doubt our disposal skill is the big thing we have to improve. We finished top 4 this year and had a bad run of injuries. I am excited about Heeney who looks a sublime footballer. He was injured or carried an injury for a lot of his first season. A very special player who will add big time to our stocks and performance.

It will, as usual be a tougher season. You would expect the top 4 to be thereabouts again and Geelong, simply because they have Dangerfield will be right in it for top 4 as will the improving Bulldogs. I reckon we have the stocks to improve on 2015. As some people have said maybe introduce a more free flowing style.

I don't agree that we are restocking/reloading for a tilt at the flag beyond 2016. I think we are working on winning in 2016.

MUG; if we have to rely on Towers and Cunningham in the best 22 then we are in big strife. If we have a decent run with injuries they will only be top up players.

I also think that 4 interchange will assist us in the tweaking of our game plan and iron out those flat spots we had in 2015.

My new year wish: get that bloody centre clearance work fixed.

[stevoswan]

As a perennial Swans optimist, I am agreeing with Cosmic Wizard(are you into Hawkwind by any chance?) and Mug, on our prospects for 2016. I find myself a bit excited looking forward. But that said, a lot of things have to go right, so I also agree with Wolftone's assessment of our team's approach to next season. Hoping Horse and fellow coaches have an 'enlightening' off season. Getting it right could mean the difference between a top four season and a disastrous one, by our standards at least.

[Mug Punter]

MUG; if we have to rely on Towers and Cunningham in the best 22 then we are in big strife. If we have a decent run with injuries they will only be top up players.

I tend to agree re Harry but it is the bottom of your best 28 where you get exposed.

I know I'm a Towers fan but I think he could be a very very handy player if he can carry on from his finals form. Sometimes all a player needs is a bit of confidence and Dean came into the game quite late and has had a path less travelled to the AFL. He plays very very tall for a someone of his size and mobility and he can take a grab. For mine he is the type of player who could well just burst on the scene next year

[111431]

After re-watching last season we need to change a lot.

1. We need to rid ourselves of our little sleepy lapses where we simply play like U 14's for a quarter or two.

2. We need to improve our disposal incredibly. Our disposal efficiency was one of the worst in the AFL from clearances. Only 30% of our clearances even reached a Swans player and then only 40% of them were to advantage. We were wasteful out of defence too.

3. Stop the panic under pressure. If a player can't hack the pressure then drop him.

4. Our goal kicking wasn't the best, especially from our specialists. Tip, Bud and Reid accounted for a fair whack of our misses and our small forwards/resting mids were also wasteful.

5. Our mids need to deliver better, especially to the forward line, and kick goals on the run. The spray factor from these each game could have kept the ground wet for a week.

6. Our smalls have got to stop spoiling our KF by contesting against them. We all love to see Parks, Deano, BJ, Hannas etc take a specky but there is a time and place and running with the flight of the ball into a pack isn't one of them. Parks wasn't the only one to commit this sin. All those mentioned spoiled their taller teammates at some stage of the season by flying against the flow into a big pack that was controlled by our KF. Several injuries, none serious except Parks, ensued. They are there to crumb and when the ball did come down were outnumbered because they were on the ground. If you are a small forward your first responsibility is to crumb.

7. You talk about defence and ours was ordinary for most of the season. Quite frankly I think we were lucky to draw so many teams who just ended up crappier than us. The defence has to be much better. No more stupid kicks across goal. No more stupid handball to players standing still, the panic handball that kills a coach. Every defender was guilty of this at some time last season. No more panic kicks out of defence to a wall of opposition players. If we are going to be a good team we are going to have to learn to block and set a wall like Hawks do.

8. Need to kick more and HB less. Simple really the name of the game is 'FOOTBALL' NOT 'HANDBALL'. How about we go back to basics and learn how to kick with precision. That would be refreshing. Funny we did it in 2012.

9. The coaches have to change the game plan to suit the personnel. They drafted them. They must have had a reason? If they did then they have to introduce the special talent each player brings to the game and make it a part of our strategies. Stoppages must get even better than last year. We got better than 2014 but were still way down on the best sides. NO MORE BOMBING INDISCRIMINATELY TO THE FORWARD LINE. LEARN HOW TO PUT THE BALL TO ADVANTAGE. In the last few games of last season there was some work by Deano that was just sensational. Kicking at 100% against Suns he continually put the ball to the forwards advantage and it paid off in most cases.

Excellent analysis - can I also add:
- we need a Plan B when game is not on our terms
- when it is wet (we seem to cop a few) can we forget about over possessing and kick it long

[Meg]

Just to put things into perspective of where we stand in the pecking order as far as experience goes, here is a list of the number of 50 game players that each club will have at the beginning of next season, barring any additional experienced players being picked up, like Jed Adcock for example.

Whether there is a relationship between this stat and how clubs might finish next year, well, I'll let you be the judge of that.

Eagles........... 24
Freo.............. 23
North Mel...... 22
Port Adelaide. 22
Hawthorn...... 21
Richmond..... 21
Collingwood.. 20
Essendon..... 20
Geelong....... 19
Adelaide...... 19
GWS Giants. 19
Brisbane...... 18
Melbourne ... 17
GC Suns...... 17
Carlton........ 16
Bulldogs...... 16
Sydney........ 16
Saints.......... 14

That's an interesting analysis Ludwig. Have you done (or will you do) the same for last year compared with how the teams finished the year on the premiership ladder?

[Mug Punter]

That's an interesting analysis Ludwig. Have you done (or will you do) the same for last year compared with how the teams finished the year on the premiership ladder?

Over a 10 year period for statistical integrity if possible Ludwig

[Meg]

Over a 10 year period for statistical integrity if possible Ludwig

You didn't have anything planned for tomorrow, did you Ludwig?

[Ludwig]

You didn't have anything planned for tomorrow, did you Ludwig?

Seriously, I have to travel tomorrow to go to a wedding and won't be back till Sunday, then I've got visitors for a few days. Everyone just assumes its all fun and games over here in Thailand. I feel like Jack Watts sometimes, the weight of expectations are so heavy.

In any case, I did the list from the current rosters from the Footywire website and don't know how to get previous year rosters.

The list is interesting. It would be very unusual for a club with our depth of experience to win a flag. I still feel we have a good team with some of the best young players going around. I'm looking forward to some excitement from the 2016 Swans, if not necessarily a serious challenge for the premiership.

[Triple B]

For me from that day came the realisation that if you shut down Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Buddy and Lewis you effectively shut the Hawks down....

Brilliant...

[bloodspirit]

Just to put things into perspective of where we stand in the pecking order as far as experience goes, here is a list of the number of 50 game players that each club will have at the beginning of next season, barring any additional experienced players being picked up, like Jed Adcock for example.

Whether there is a relationship between this stat and how clubs might finish next year, well, I'll let you be the judge of that.

Eagles........... 24
Freo.............. 23
North Mel...... 22
Port Adelaide. 22
Hawthorn...... 21
Richmond..... 21
Collingwood.. 20
Essendon..... 20
Geelong....... 19
Adelaide...... 19
GWS Giants. 19
Brisbane...... 18
Melbourne ... 17
GC Suns...... 17
Carlton........ 16
Bulldogs...... 16
Sydney........ 16
Saints.......... 14

Thanks for sharing this Ludwig. I can't help thinking this goes some way to explaining our season. If I had known this sooner I might have lowered my expectations and been happier with the outcome.

IMO most of the analysis and commentary we produce on RWO underestimates our coaching staff. I'm sure the stuff that frustrates us so much is perfectly apparent to them only harder to fix than we seem to think or might like.

I think we're all poorly qualified to assess the coaching staff on their technical ability and I prefer to place weight on the fact that Horse has been voted best in the business by his peers two out of the past four years. That and the team's results during his tenure.

Instead I am buoyed by my impression that we have a pretty good spread of ages across the team, especially in the critical midfield. This gives me hope that we will continue to be competitive in the years ahead. [I don't know if this is impression is accurate or how our age spread compares to other teams actually - do any of you know the data? ]

Finally this leads to the point that one disadvantage we have as an AFL team in the Sydney market is, as the club has publicly acknowledged, that we can't afford to put all our eggs in one basket and throw everything at winning a premiership during a finite "window " period knowing we will crash afterwards. Our challenge is to remain continuously competitive, preferably playing finals, and still find the wherewithal to reach beyond ourselves and snatch some premierships against the odds a la 2012.

(As an aside, the acquisition of Buddy flew in the face of this strategy but was justified in the same way i.e. for marketing purposes /reasons. And it meant that, for a short time anyway, we were genuine flag favourites.)

[Auntie.Gerald]

i do think that we have always gone for an expensive and marque forward though

Bud
Hall
Locket

etc

but back the road ahead..........im still confident of top8..........not sure about top 4...........there are some seriously good emerging teams out and about now

- - - Updated - - -

Hall was on $700K PLUS........PA

that was a massive contract back then

[Auntie.Gerald]

Game Plan to win a GF ?

in another thread it was expressed how desperately we need a dominant small goal scoring forward

obviously Kinnear stated we have been looking for an accurate goal kicking small forward for some time but i wonder if we will seriously adjust our game plan to exploit this type of player........I mean Papley looks promising but lets be honest we don't play a leading one on one small forward structure at all.......and what is the likely hood Papley will be a Betts, Rioli, Walters - well i am saying 100-1

Hawks, Freeo and now Adelaide Have built their transition / forward entries to have players like Walters and Rioli etc to feature in pagans paddock one on one with a small defender and on their day they change the game

exhibit A - Rioli in the forward 50 one on one in the GF ......destroyed WC and kept the momentum for the Hawks to put WC to far behind in any game of football

We have certainly not rotated a small forward to be leading one on one much at all and that is probably because we haven't had one good enough but I would argue Brandon has that flair and would be hard to stop one on one

We have not wanted to get rebounded on from that position is my guess or we haven't had in our coaches mind enough talent in teh small forward dept to seriously bring this in our game plan

For me it comes down to we have recruited in the main to ensure we have very dominant inside mids as this has fit the game plan that the Swans Roos/Longmire have enjoyed coaching i.e. contested controlled field position rather then possession

2012 we started to see a little bit of slingshot footy which was more gut running one on one rather then leaving a Rioili in the attacking 50 one on one

The upside with the Swans is that we are one of the best defensive teams i.e. top 4 a lot more years then most.........we are close to the opposition on the scoreboard most of the time ...........we are a drought in our structure to control field position and to be tough to score against

BUT it has been very difficult for us to combat the other top 4 teams that love to play high possession and kick and catch footy

AFL Stats say that something like 86% of the time if you are 5 goals ahead at any stage of the game you win

AFL Stats say that 80% of the teams leading at the end of 3rd qtr go on to win

The Hawks have exploited chip and pass high possession great technical kicking players and this has with out doubt suited the MCG wider flanks where there is more angle and more room to pass by foot and maintain possession

We have recruited for the SCG smaller field less probability to maintain possession by foot

The Hawks have recruited and shown the way with players that possess great kicks and decision making

we have recruited opposite in the main with inside ball winners top priority

[Conor_Dillon]

I think we differ from Hawthorn in that they recruited specifically for a certain game-plan whereas we built our game-plan around the players we had recruited

[Ludwig]

we have recruited opposite in the main with inside ball winners top priority

Sometimes things just work out that way, even when it's not quite the plan.

With Mitchell being a FS bargain and Parker just sitting there at pick 40 we have 2 great inside mids that could not be passed up.

Let's look at the past 4 drafts:

• 2012 was a compromised draft where we took Towers with our first pick at #22. We didn't take any inside mids with our 4 ND picks.
• I think we targeted Jones in 2013, who has some pace and can play a number of positions. I believe we would have like to take a KPD next, but the better ones went between our 1st two picks. We were probably surprised to see George Hewett still available at pick 32 and felt we couldn't pass him up. That pretty much shaped that draft for us. But Hewett can play on the outside with his good skill set.
• Last year we got Heeney as an academy bargain and didn't take any other midfielders untill Jordan Foote in the rookie draft.
• This year we got Mills of course, who can play almost anywhere, and didn't take another pure inside mid, but rather predominantly outside speedy types with good skills. We had the points to take Dunkley, but passed, and traded Bird away for next to nothing.

The situation of having a lot of inside mids goes back to the good fortune of getting Parker and Mitchell, but they came in 5 and 6 drafts ago. Since then we have hardly targeted inside midfielders at all. The academy has shaped our drafting the past 2 years. Last year we targeted KPDs and this year, speed and skills. We had a number of opportunities this draft to take another KPD, with players like Mitch Brown, Hartley, Firns and a few other mature agers, available late in the piece, but we must be satisfied with what we already have on board.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Thanks Ludwig

Kennedy and McGlynn were also brought in for hard contested footy and i think it would be fair to say that our mix of contested style footballers i.e. inside middish type of players is as high if not higher then any in the comp and tends to suit the smaller SCG which makes sense week to week but not for a MCG final

either way........has our team mix changed enough to hybrid our traditional contested footy ie kick to a high traffic spot and win the ball with more dominant inside players

The Hawks can turn it on with inside footy when needed but from memory they generally only rank around 6th or 8th for inside contested footy wins which matches their chip and catch

They have evolved a style of footy that is high possession and suited brilliantly to the MCG and the MCG is after all the GF location each and every year