2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[Captain]

Absolutely no chance. Nothing to see here.

[southsideswan]

Well Tippett "wanted" to go to the Gold Coast but only got as far as Sydney. Maybe O'Meara might also only go part the way. Of course I say this in jest as the real situation is rarely the one in the papers which is often a smokescreen supplied by the player manager.

[Doctor]

I read JOM wants to move to Melbourne as his girlfriend is from here. I also read that GC don't want draft picks as compo - they want an elite player. The only elite player that might leave the Swans is Mitchell and he wouldn't want go to the GC.

Can't see JOM landing in Sydney.

I can't see why living where your girlfriend lives should make any difference at all. It's not like that's ever landed US a big name player or anything...

[Swansongster]

I can't see why living where your girlfriend lives should make any difference at all. It's not like that's ever landed US a big name player or anything...

I don't know. I think Lebron James went to Miami for few seasons because of the girls.

[707]

2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

Can't see a thread for this, most of the discussion seems incorrectly embedded in other threads like Tom Mitchell.

Anyway, to get clear air on this fun topic, I've started this one.

I'll kick it off with some analysis done by "Swansfan51" on BF last year. It shows why KPF are the most valuable asset in the game, why you get them where ever you can and why you don't trade them out.

"Here are the top 25 tall forwards for goals scored in 2015 (in order), plus how they initially got on an AFL list. (As a side note, look at the massive prevalence of shenanigans in this list - this is not matched elsewhere)

Josh J Kennedy - Pick 4
Jeremy Cameron - Shenanigans
Taylor Walker - Shenanigans
Jack Gunston - Pick 29
Jack Riewoldt - Pick 13
Jarryd Roughead - Pick 2
Josh Bruce - Shenanigans
Lance Franklin - Pick 5
Josh Jenkins - Rookie Draft
Tom Hawkins - Shenanigans
Kurt Tippett - Pick 32
Jesse Hogan - Shenanigans
Jay Schulz - Pick 12
Tom Lynch (GC) - Pick 11
Drew Petrie - Pick 23
Jarrad Waite - Shenanigans
Charlie Dixon - Shenanigans
Matthew Pavlich - Pick 4
Cameron McCarthy - Pick 14
Joe Daniher - Shenanigans
Travis Cloke - Shenanigans
Tom Lynch (Ad) - Pick 13
Ben Brown - Pick 47
Tyrone Vickery - Pick 8
Nick Riewoldt - Pick 1

Only 4 on the entire list were taken outside the top 25. Two of the four are ruck/forwards and one is a basketball convert. Jack Gunston is not a traditional contested key target.

TLDR: Don't bother trying to get a gun key forward if you don't have a high draft pick, maybe you can have a crack at a basketball player but your odds are low. The moral of the story is if you get a chance to get a gun key forward you simply, absolutely, must take it. And you sure as hell don't trade them away unless you are forced to."

[Nico]

Or they are always injured and have proved of little value to the team. eg. Sam Reid has hardly been on the park the last 2 years and doesn't appear on this list.

[707]

Or they are always injured and have proved of little value to the team. eg. Sam Reid has hardly been on the park the last 2 years and doesn't appear on this list.

I almost never play the man but gee this takes the cake. You don't let facts get in the way of your big statements do you Nico? Or maybe you have a short term memory? Also looking forward to your list of KPF we have drafted and developed in the last 20 years over in the Tom Mitchell thread.

I've watched a lot of the 2015 games again and Sam Reid had a very good year, for hardly being on the park in the last two years he amazingly played 22 games in 2015 he also played 75 games in the previous 4 years!

[Faunac8]

No disputing how important a Key forward is. I would suggest however that no matter how you look at the figures that Sam unfortunately doesn't perform as a well as a key forward as some of our other scoring options.
AFL Player Comparison - FinalSiren.com

[bandwagon]

Given that this year we certainly won't be receiving a high draft pick, we might as well take 'best available' with our first round pick.
Our usual practice of trading for a key forward has been very successful, though we may well be out of the market for a couple more years.


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[liz]

There is a young chap who recently won the NSW MVP award at the U16 championships and who stands 193cm (already). His father has a fair AFL pedigree (playing over 350 games). He's also in the Swans academy (and potentially eligible to two other clubs under the FS rule).

[Ludwig]

Before there was Tippett and Franklin we probably saw Sam Reid as a future KPF, but as things have turned out he will never be a KPF with us. He plays the present role of Xavier Richards, or he could be a wingman or key defender. His versatility is his greatest strength. With Sam's injury history he will probably be forced into retirement before Buddy goes. A KPF is the main go to goal kicker on the team. That's Buddy, followed by Tippo.

We will have a first round pick this year and next year to get a couple of KPF prospects. We are likely to get a first round pick for Tom Mitchell, if he's traded and there's that kid Liz mentioned for the 2018 draft. There are 2 possibilities that might be available at our first pick this year in Patrick Kerr and Josh Battle. Next year is supposed to have a good selection of KPPs. Buddy's got 6 years left on his contract. I think Aliir can play forward if we want, but with Buddy in our side, he's better off in defence. Abe Davis will be a very good player, although probably not a main target KPF but who knows; he's still young. And maybe by the time Buddy and Tippo are gone, we will pull off another Buddy-like trade. Jesse Hogan will be a free agent when Buddy's contract ends. And Pauline Hanson will be PM, so we've got a lot more to worry about than our KPF stocks in 2023.

There is a young chap who recently won the NSW MVP award at the U16 championships and who stands 193cm (already). His father has a fair AFL pedigree (playing over 350 games). He's also in the Swans academy (and potentially eligible to two other clubs under the FS rule).

And no way in the world he's going to North Melbourne, if his old man wants to keep his job.

[Faunac8]

We once had a big athletic Key Position Forward who was much maligned by almost all who posted on RWO. He was paid probably about 50% of the pay packet that young Sam pocketed. Much venom was cast in his direction and when he was traded many rejoiced.
I present for your perusal the indisputable facts that show that there was very little between them statistically, although the maligned one had a 20% higher return in scoring.
AFL Player Comparison - FinalSiren.com

[CureTheSane]

Before there was Tippett and Franklin we probably saw Sam Reid as a future KPF, but as things have turned out he will never be a KPF with us. He plays the present role of Xavier Richards, or he could be a wingman or key defender. His versatility is his greatest strength. With Sam's injury history he will probably be forced into retirement before Buddy goes. A KPF is the main go to goal kicker on the team. That's Buddy, followed by Tippo.

Um, this.
Kind of sums up the Reid issue.
Add that he didn't work in the back line and he's gonna struggle to find a place.

[Ludwig]

We once had a big athletic Key Position Forward who was much maligned by almost all who posted on RWO. He was paid probably about 50% of the pay packet that young Sam pocketed. Much venom was cast in his direction and when he was traded many rejoiced.
I present for your perusal the indisputable facts that show that there was very little between them statistically, although the maligned one had a 20% higher return in scoring.
AFL Player Comparison - FinalSiren.com

Fascinating how Reid and White have had such similar unproductive careers.

Read that Adam Tomlinson has committed to GWS. With Corr on their list and McCreadie to be drafted this year, I would think that KPD Sydney boy Jeremy Finlayson should be very getable if we want him. He's been impressive in the NEAFL. He's out of contract and surely he can't see a future at the Giants. But he would have a fight on his hands for a spot in our defence as well. But we would have the 'stay home' factor on our side. There are also some reasonable KPD prospects that might be available at our second round pick this year. With all the worry about our depth at the beginning of year, especially at KPD, we are now looking very strong, even in a post-Grundy era.

[707]

There is a young chap who recently won the NSW MVP award at the U16 championships and who stands 193cm (already). His father has a fair AFL pedigree (playing over 350 games). He's also in the Swans academy (and potentially eligible to two other clubs under the FS rule).

Don't tease us Liz, who would this be, a Langford?