2016 trading and drafting (merged thread)

[Markwebbos]

So Lewis is going to the Demons. Stuff up or genius by the Hawks?

[iigrover]

There could be a big man joining the Demons that many wouldn't have 'Tipped'... as if he was moving, he could have gone further north. #hmm

— DT Talk (@DTTALK) October 15, 2016

If it is a Tippett, my guess it would be Kurt's brother Joel (Nth Melb). Joel previously played for Brisbane.

[Dosser]

If it is a Tippett, my guess it would be Kurt's brother Joel (Nth Melb). Joel previously played for Brisbane.

Could have gone "further" north would infer that he already is. This could refer to the rumours about Tippett and Gold Coast. Maybe Melbourne wants a big body at FF to take the pressure off Hogan and relieve in the ruck.

[ScottH]

I can't see why Melbourne would go for Tippett while they've got Gawn

They need a backup ruckman.

[707]

And just how would Melb get a Tippett deal done as they only have a pick around 26-28 from memory.

Nankervis is weighing up opportunity and dollars at Richmond who could get the deal done by upgrading our 38 to their 26 or whatever the numbers are. I can't see us taking more than three picks in the ND so the higher up they are the better, unless there is more trading out of fringe players.

[Ludwig]

And just how would Melb get a Tippett deal done as they only have a pick around 26-28 from memory.

Nankervis is weighing up opportunity and dollars at Richmond who could get the deal done by upgrading our 38 to their 26 or whatever the numbers are. I can't see us taking more than three picks in the ND so the higher up they are the better, unless there is more trading out of fringe players.

I think a pick upgrade is totally inadequate for Nankervis. Their second rounder in a straight swap is around fair value, or their 2nd rounder in 2017 may work better for both sides. An upgrade of our 3rd round pick this year would also be helpful if we want a take a Nanka replacement with that pick.

I would try to use our 2nd round pick plus Towers for a pick upgrade.

[bloodspirit]

There's a review of Lewis Melican on the Swans' website. It sounds like he's staying for another year. This would mean that we need 3 senior spots for Papley, Newman and Foote (as Melican will be the 3rd year rookie).

I wouldn't be interested in trading our picks 14 and 17 for picks 5 or 6, which would likely get you either Ainsworth or Tarranto. Both are good players, but not so much better than other players likely to be available in the the mid teens - Berry, Witherden, Venables to name a few. Two of those seem better than one of Ainsworth or Tarranto.

* Why do we need to upgrade 3 rookies if we re-sign Melican?
* I would think Marsh will get upgraded before Foote.
* Why do you think Foote has gone past Robinson?
* I have some sympathy for your notion that it is better to have picks 14 & 17 than pick 5 or 6 - not as a general rule however, as you seem to be suggesting - I think you need absolute elite talent to win premierships and (presumably) your chances of getting it are better with a higher pick (although there are plenty of exceptions to that rule like Joey, Hanners , Goodsey, Parker to name a few). However, I think we are pretty well stocked for elite talent and may not be able to squeeze a lot more in at our club given the salary cap (as seen with Mitchell's departure) which means we need to spread our ages and talent so not too many of our players are commanding top dollar at once. For this reason we may be better off acquiring very good players who can perform a role rather than top-flight stars who will get squeezed out of the club down the track. Also, with two picks we have a better chance of hitting gold at least once than with one higher pick.

Currently, of the players outside our best 22 the one I am most excited about is Colin O'Riordan - I really hope he can keep developing and become and AFL star. I also like Newman and think he will do well but perhaps not as much upside as COR, else he'd be playing already.

Another thought/query: I have noticed that a lot more people have been talking up the prospects of Dawson compared to Leonardis. Why is this? Did he play that much better in the NEAFL this year? Is it his long kicking? Is it just because he is a forward/goal scorer? I thought they both distinguished themselves about the same, although did Leonardis have some injury issues...?

Another thought: why aren't we trying harder to profit off the GWS fire sale? Are we poison to them? Don't they want to deal with us? Surely they have players that would be of interest to us and that we might have picks to offer for??

[Ludwig]

* Why do we need to upgrade 3 rookies if we re-sign Melican?
* I would think Marsh will get upgraded before Foote.
* Why do you think Foote has gone past Robinson?
* I have some sympathy for your notion that it is better to have picks 14 & 17 than pick 5 or 6 - not as a general rule however, as you seem to be suggesting - I think you need absolute elite talent to win premierships and (presumably) your chances of getting it are better with a higher pick (although there are plenty of exceptions to that rule like Joey, Hanners , Goodsey, Parker to name a few). However, I think we are pretty well stocked for elite talent and may not be able to squeeze a lot more in at our club given the salary cap (as seen with Mitchell's departure) which means we need to spread our ages and talent so not too many of our players are commanding top dollar at once. For this reason we may be better off acquiring very good players who can perform a role rather than top-flight stars who will get squeezed out of the club down the track. Also, with two picks we have a better chance of hitting gold at least once than with one higher pick.

Currently, of the players outside our best 22 the one I am most excited about is Colin O'Riordan - I really hope he can keep developing and become and AFL star. I also like Newman and think he will do well but perhaps not as much upside as COR, else he'd be playing already.

Another thought/query: I have noticed that a lot more people have been talking up the prospects of Dawson compared to Leonardis. Why is this? Did he play that much better in the NEAFL this year? Is it his long kicking? Is it just because he is a forward/goal scorer? I thought they both distinguished themselves about the same, although did Leonardis have some injury issues...?

Another thought: why aren't we trying harder to profit off the GWS fire sale? Are we poison to them? Don't they want to deal with us? Surely they have players that would be of interest to us and that we might have picks to offer for??

Good questions, bloodspirit.

• My preference for keeping picks 14 & 17 is based on the group of players available in this range. It it worth reviewing Cal Twomey's latest phantom draft guide ( Callum Twomey?s Phantom Form Guide - October edition - AFL.com.au ) to get an idea of who's available. The group of players from 13 to 23 is where our picks are likely to come from. This group has a lot of players with pace and skill who can add to quality of list in areas we might be a bit deficient.
• Foote and Melican are both 2nd year players on our rookie list. The rules say we can only carry one into the third year. It seems like Melican thinks he's staying and imagine he will be that 3rd year rookie. That means Foote has to be upgraded. We've already promised Papley and Newman upgrades (Newman would be in the same category as Foote anyway). It's hard to see upgrading Marsh unless we get a few others offloaded in the trade period. I think Marsh is okay, but think he will be squeezed out by others in due course. I would try to find him another home.
• Foote has had an excellent year in the NEAFL. He has a burst of speed and urgency about his game that I don't see in Robinson. I see Robbo as a solid all around player who should have a future in the AFL and is likely to grow his game with the passage of time. It's just so tough to break into our midfield.
• I think it's becoming more evident by the day that contracts mean little and salary cap is king. A club also needs to create the kind of environment players want to be in so much that they are willing to play for less rather than go to another club.
• COR will spend another year developing in the NEAFL. I expect he will have a great year and be upgraded for 2018. Looking forward to his addition to the senior team down the road.
• Dawson has a lot of class about him. He could show more urgency in his game, but he's a clever player, an excellent mark and has a booming accurate kick. He's not ultra quick, but moves well enough. He's had a few minor injuries this year, but with the right development he has the potential to be a high grade AFL player.
• Leonardis is a hard one to call. He looks like a Bulldogs player, running into contests and causing havoc. He's a bit unpredictable. He has some good traits and will look forward to see his development next year.
• Another interesting player to watch is Sam Murray. He started the year as a raw and undisciplined player, but has made a lot of progress in controlling his game and leaning to play a role within a team structure. He still has a long way to go, but he has good pace and can kick the ball well, although erratically all too often.
• There's been a lot of praise headed the way of Rhyce Shaw on how he's helped the development of our young players this year. We have a good record developing players and the addition of Shaw as our reserves coach adds to an already strong group. Success is born behind the scenes as much as on the field and I feel we have an all star team in that regard.

[Billericay]

Another thought: why aren't we trying harder to profit off the GWS fire sale? Are we poison to them? Don't they want to deal with us? Surely they have players that would be of interest to us and that we might have picks to offer for??

It's a good question, as you think we'd know the GWS team pretty well from the NEAFL. A few Swans have gone West, but none have come the other way. Either we don't rate their players or can't afford them. You think it would be worth nabbing one to get our hands on their IP, given how they're become our bogey team in 2016

[bloodspirit]

I can't imagine we don't rate their players. They have so many first round picks on their list it's not funny. Can't afford maybe, although with the ones in the NEAFL they can't be earning that much.

(That said, I noticed that the reason given for Ahern being traded for pick 69 is that he is on about $300K for next year and won't be able to play due to injury. So North (?) have picked up a prospective gun (with asterisk due to injuries) for peanuts. With the envy I'm having at the moment, I really hope Carlton don't get Marchbank, Pickett and Stewart for pick 5. Pickett alone was pick 4, wasn't he? And Marchbank pick 6. I would think they're worth has increased not decreased (at least in Marchbank's case) because it is less of a speculative investment as he has gone further to proving he deserves his reputation.)

- - - Updated - - -

Thanks for explaining about the limit of one 3rd year rookie, Ludwig. I had overlooked that and now follow your logic. However, we could also de-list and re-rookie, couldn't we? That could be quite feasible with a player like Melican who is a project player who hasn't proven anything yet (but could, and hopefully will, still be excellent).

[ScottH]

AFL quizzes Hawthorn for a second time over Vickery deal - AFL.com.au

[ugg]

HS reporting Xavier wants to be traded.

[Brettb]

Xavier Richards has requested a trade - according to Neil Cordy

[troyjones2525]

Yes just saw that. Unexpected and interesting to see his worth.

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[Billericay]

AFL quizzes Hawthorn for a second time over Vickery deal - AFL.com.au

Looks slightly dodgy to me. I hope that all free agency deals get the same scrutiny as our Buddy one did