2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Aaron]

We don't know the "real" reason why Paps wants to go but I really don't want him to leave. We have so many interstate young players. We don't want this to be an example for them and use similar "excuses". We don't want to encourage other Victorian Clubs to target them thinking that we will oblige easily. When Oliver just extended to 2022 while Hayward extended to 2024, I thought it was a sign to me that perhaps some young players might have other thoughts and plans. Without COLA, it has been very difficult for us to attract quality players in the trade so it is paramount that we have to keep our own talents as hard as possible.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I also think we haven’t had the sal cap to attract the right players as yet

We went with plan B or Or maybe even Plan C ???? last year for depth and the capacity to compete and develop our youth ie fairly low cost low upside players traded in

Ie Menzel, Thurlow and Clarke enable a young team to function and grow but those three boys don’t dominate games. The irony is they place more pressure on our youth to develop faster

So what is our next steps after 4 ex gun players just retired and possibly two important players moving on in Jones and especially Paps -

It feels like the ledger isn’t balancing at all

we are developing internally well and Dawson, Blakey, Hayward, AA, Rowbottom, Florent, McCartin etc are all exciting but we need to balance out the age/experience etc so we can sustain the full season and be ripe and ready for a final series in 2020/21

We need to see a trade period be fruitful and deliver

So far we are not in alignment with fighting for the top8 for 2020 and that is in part because of a disappointing trading last season

Let’s be honest and candid we need to nail this trade period to be in alignment with a strong team for 2020 and a top4 competitive team for 2021

Our competitors have shown the way Re trading with excellence while rebuilding and maintaining serious fight

Geelong
Collingwood
Hawks
Etc

Maybe being in Sydney hasn’t been an option for many players we wanted to recruit?

Let’s make us a serious option again

[Ralph Dawg]

We don't know the "real" reason why Paps wants to go but I really don't want him to leave. We have so many interstate young players. We don't want this to be an example for them and use similar "excuses". We don't want to encourage other Victorian Clubs to target them thinking that we will oblige easily. When Oliver just extended to 2022 while Hayward extended to 2024, I thought it was a sign to me that perhaps some young players might have other thoughts and plans. Without COLA, it has been very difficult for us to attract quality players in the trade so it is paramount that we have to keep our own talents as hard as possible.

Aaron, it all really makes no sense. Paps playing for the club of his family (both maternal and paternal side), great mates in Will and Ollie, much loved by the coach, fan favourite, his best season yet and the fact we gave him a chance when no one else did. And now he wants to go Melbourne because of his girl friend and an unspecified family crisis. Plus his management leaks out that he has been really unhappy in Sydney, felt really unsupported etc
It's just a big WTF situation!!

I'm going to try to explain it with the following:
1) Paps was actually happy to stay, as evident by his long term deal.
2) Daniher expresses interest, Swans management goes all Gaga and starts to work on how they can possibly satisfy an unreasonable Essendon
3) Know blues need a small forward, realise Paps has currency and decide he is expendable for pick 9; might also be aware Paps GF would prefer him Melbourne. Approach Blues with the trade and they jump at the opportunity.
4) Tell Paps that this is what they are working towards. Paps cracks it and his management release all the rubbish about his unhappiness. Swans then trott out lines about family reasons etc to soften the blow to supporters. Then also continue with BS about him being wanted and only trading if deal is right to demonstrate to supporters they are exercising due diligence, even though they have every intention of trading him to facilitate Daniher deal.

Conspiracy 101

[Melbourne_Blood]

Been having a look over on BF , and saw what seems a reasonable deal for all parties posted by a swans fan( assuming how much we are prepared to give up for a potentially cooked JD that we could get for nothing next year ) .

We trade paps and 25 to carlton for 9 and their future second rounder .

We trade 9 and our future first rounder to Essendon for Daniher and a future third rounder.

We keep 5, and stockpile second and third round picks that come back for Jones and Daniher so we have enough points for the academy boys .

I really don’t mind this one. still think it’s too much but I don’t think it’s us getting bent over, and dodo may just go for it.


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[troyjones2525]

As I said in an earlier post, my main preference is to arm ourselves with a bunch of first round picks and back ourselves at this year's draft! There is talent there both small and tall throughout the first and second rounds so why not try and go in with say 5,9 and 12 or 18 (from St. Kilda) and try and build a dynasty similar to the Cats and Hawks did in the early/mid 2000's.

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[Ralph Dawg]

As I said in an earlier post, my main preference is to arm ourselves with a bunch of first round picks and back ourselves at this year's draft! There is talent there both small and tall throughout the first and second rounds so why not try and go in with say 5,9 and 12 or 18 (from St. Kilda) and try and build a dynasty similar to the Cats and Hawks did in the early/mid 2000's.

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That would just make too much sense, to the point of being a bit boring.

I mean, where's your sense of adventure. It's way more exciting for us all to see what happens when we sell the farm for a busted talent. If you need evidence, just see how many posts the Tippett thread generated (maybe we need a Daniher one?)!

[giant]

I've been thinking that, but not necessarily about the Saints. My guess is that they've been trying so hard to lure players to them, without success, that they've bitten off more than they can chew this year, but they'll find someway to fit them in, even if that means discarding other players.

But I have been wondering about the Giants and Eagles in particular.

Yeo, McGovern (who we know signed a big dollar contract last year, probably the biggest for a defender), Shuey, Gaff, JJK, NicNat, Darling, Sheed and now Kelly. Plus a pretty solid "next tier" of players like Shepherd, Jetta, Barrass, Ryan (who will still be on his first contract in 2020 but will earn a decent payrise when he renews). How do they fit Kelly in on top of what they already have?

Giants have secured Coniglio, and also have Kelly and Greene on handsome contracts - maybe not as much as they would have got elsewhere but still sizeable. Then you throw in the likes of Davis, Williams, Ward, emerging (or maybe fully emerged) mids in Hopper and Taranto. And yet they seem confident they will be able to retain both Cameron - the reigning Coleman medallist and AA Whitfield. Even with Tomlinson and Patton on the way out, it's really hard to see how they all fit.

The West Coast part of this equation seems to me a real opportunity - Yeo is fabulous midfielder of the type we'd love to have, but is likely now their 4th best paid mid with, as you point out, plenty of others in front of him salary-wise as well. Surely he's ripe for the picking? Same could be said for a number of the GWS talented under-used mids.

If we don't secure Daniher in this trade (and I still believe we will) it will be another period where we've gone backwards with no-one but the desperate and dateless seemingly keen to talk to us. Get this deal done folks!!

[waswan]

Good call, this would be as far as id go
"Jones + pick 42 for their Pick 18. That pick 18 is offered for Daniher. Take it or leave it)."

Keep Paps, make a stand we dont trade guys with more than 2 yrs on their deal, even then it is due to it being heavily in our favour

[liz]

The West Coast part of this equation seems to me a real opportunity - Yeo is fabulous midfielder of the type we'd love to have, but is likely now their 4th best paid mid with, as you point out, plenty of others in front of him salary-wise as well. Surely he's ripe for the picking? Same could be said for a number of the GWS talented under-used mids.

If we don't secure Daniher in this trade (and I still believe we will) it will be another period where we've gone backwards with no-one but the desperate and dateless seemingly keen to talk to us. Get this deal done folks!!

Yeo would be no chance to leave WC. I have no idea where he fits in their pay scale, but he's in their top 5 most important players. Even if, for some odd reason, WC could see their way to releasing him, he's playing in his home state for a club in a contending window. There's no way a move back east would be attractive to him.

That's why we need to look at players who are on the fringes of the best 22 of teams stacked with talent. They are the ones more likely to think about a move if it opens up senior opportunities for them, much as we did with one JPK a decade ago. If there has been a better "value trade" in the history of the club, I'd love to know what it was.

[troyjones2525]

Good call, this would be as far as id go
"Jones + pick 42 for their Pick 18. That pick 18 is offered for Daniher. Take it or leave it)."

Keep Paps, make a stand we dont trade guys with more than 2 yrs on their deal, even then it is due to it being heavily in our favour

That would be a sensational result if we could get 18 while handing back Jones and pick 42 for a draft perspective (getting 12 off them would be a dream Lol). If we did stick to our guns and claimed pick 9 off of Carlton without giving anything back except Papley and Essendon don't trade Daniher then we would be heading into the draft with 4 picks inside the top 25!

If we made the right selections along with 2 strong talents coming in next year via the Academy, as well as the young talent under 23 we have already, that's the type of off season that can set a club up for the next 10 years for a great run at winning multiple premierships!

I say back in Dalrymple and Beatson at the draft and give them a chance at doing something this club hasn't done in many, many years by bringing in top end talent via high draft picks! (Excluding previous Academy picks)

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[Thunder Shaker]

Been having a look over on BF , and saw what seems a reasonable deal for all parties posted by a swans fan( assuming how much we are prepared to give up for a potentially cooked JD that we could get for nothing next year ) .

We trade paps and 25 to carlton for 9 and their future second rounder .

We trade 9 and our future first rounder to Essendon for Daniher and a future third rounder.

We keep 5, and stockpile second and third round picks that come back for Jones and Daniher so we have enough points for the academy boys .

I really don’t mind this one. still think it’s too much but I don’t think it’s us getting bent over, and dodo may just go for it.


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Two first-round picks for a player who has significant injury concerns and has at best a 50% chance of playing 100 games for us is significant overs, even if we get a third-round pick back.

Remember the Tippet comparison. When recruited, he was the same age, same number of games, same number of goals. Tippett was drafted at pick 11 in the 2013 pre-season draft. He played 74 games for us.

[giant]

Yeo would be no chance to leave WC. I have no idea where he fits in their pay scale, but he's in their top 5 most important players. Even if, for some odd reason, WC could see their way to releasing him, he's playing in his home state for a club in a contending window. There's no way a move back east would be attractive to him.

That's why we need to look at players who are on the fringes of the best 22 of teams stacked with talent. They are the ones more likely to think about a move if it opens up senior opportunities for them, much as we did with one JPK a decade ago. If there has been a better "value trade" in the history of the club, I'd love to know what it was.

Yeo might be in their top 5 players but by your own calculations he likely sits on their salary ladder behind Gaff, Shuey, Kelly, NicNat and McGovern - quite possibly Kennedy & Darling as well. He can't be on more than $600K pa. An extra $3-400K pa for next 5 years might cure his homesickness (I didn't realise but he has literally just turned 26).

The moneyball picks of the past are a very hard road to run these days, especially in a post COLA environment. Arguably Brisbane did it last year with Lyons but god knows what GC were thinking.

The Neale deal showed that the big players will leave in the right circumstances and they can have a huge impact.

I do agree with you on the JPK deal though - a great article on the Swans website on that fabulous 2009 draft this week just highlighted how that trade period set up the 2012 flag. Man, those were the days...

[giant]

Two first-round picks for a player who has significant injury concerns and has at best a 50% chance of playing 100 games for us is significant overs, even if we get a third-round pick back.

Remember the Tippet comparison. When recruited, he was the same age, same number of games, same number of goals. Tippett was drafted at pick 11 in the 2013 pre-season draft. He played 74 games for us.

Remember the Barry Hall comparison - he had a slightly less goals per game average. Went on to become a premiership captain with the Swans.

[Is kinda remarkable that Daniher/Tippett stat but]

[liz]

Remember the Barry Hall comparison - he had a slightly less goals per game average. Went on to become a premiership captain with the Swans.

[Is kinda remarkable that Daniher/Tippett stat but]

And he cost us two late first round picks (mid to late teens). And didn't have serious injury clouds hanging over him when he arrived.

I don't think anyone would question that Daniher is worth two top ten picks had he played his last two seasons as he did 2017. But he didn't. And we don't know (and the club can have only somewhat more of an idea) what the likelihood of him getting back on the field consistently, let alone achieving those levels again.

(And even if he were fit and firing, it's still a valid question to wonder whether his addition will improve the Swans' list overall, given our forward line is much better stocked already than our midfield, and there's no point having a strong forward line if the team can't get the ball down there enough.)

[rickmat]

I cannot believe that the general media pick up what comes out of those "Melb experts" mouths. Front page is that Swans are prepared to consider putting Sam Reid as part of "package" to Essendon for Daniher. This is so much crap and repeating what these media experts are prepared to say to get a headline. As we all know, these "experts" are searching for dramatic headlines full of lies and innuendo. There is NO WAY Swans will give 5,9 and Reid to get Daniher, this does not make sense in every way.