2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

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  • bloodspirit
    Clubman
    • Apr 2015
    • 4448

    Originally posted by waswan
    If whoever we draft doesnt play round 1 en route to 18+ games, ill lose my sh8t
    I believe you.

    ***

    MattW, why do you see Paddy McCartin as a stopgap? If he's actually fit and up to the rigours of AFL football, then why can't he be a long term prospect? His ceiling is presumably high, having been #1 draft pick. And he is still relatively young (24 years old) and coming into his prime.

    The problem is he has had at least 8 concussions in his AFL career including at least 3 in the 2016 season: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_McCartin. If he's had so many, why would they cease now? It's a remarkably high number coming in an era where concussions are not all that common, and are closely monitored. In each AFL round there are about 400 players who take the field and there's probably less than one concussion per round? So, probably that is your point. There is a high risk his career will be interrupted again - or ended - by concussion.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

    Comment

    • The Runner
      Regular in the Side
      • May 2017
      • 718

      A lot of the concussions appear to be a result of him flying for contests and getting accidental knocks to the head. You'd assume his longevity will be linked to his ability to protect himself in contests.
      There's going when it's your time to go for a contest. And knowing you cannot impact the result of the contest and holding back. Or using your body to protect the head more effectively.
      If he can get the balance right, he'll be a great player for a long time.

      Comment

      • bloodspirit
        Clubman
        • Apr 2015
        • 4448

        Incidentally, may I commend to you all Draft Central's 3rd annual Guide to the Draft - available here: https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020-afl-draft-guide/. There's a nice write up of Braeden Campbell - looks a gun, with the main knock on him being his endurance (took over 7 minutes in 2km time trial - more than 1.5 minutes behind the very quickest running machines) - and also one of Errol Gulden who they present as smart and consistent. Both are rated top 30.

        Five other Swans Academy prospects rate a mention and get a short write up: Sam Gaden, Kye Pfrengle, Pierce Roseby (I don't remember ever hearing of him), Marco Rossman and Marc Sheather. I think Kinnear Beatson indicated that he thought one of the these guys would quite possibly get drafted, but he declined to say which.

        I think GWS Academy prospects include: Joshua Green (Tom's younger brother), Jack Driscoll and Liam Delahunty.

        Former GWS Academy player, Tom Highmore, is a great chance to be drafted. And former Swans Academy player, Sam Fisher, is also a chance.
        All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

        Comment

        • aardvark
          Veterans List
          • Mar 2010
          • 5685

          Class of 2020: Why Braeden Campbell is Sydney's next Academy star

          Comment

          • Ludwig
            Veterans List
            • Apr 2007
            • 9359

            I think most agree that we need a KPF the most, and with McDonald and Thilthorpe so highly rated, these 2 would be the preferred choices for our first pick. But the general consensus is that they are more than likely to be taken by Adelaide and North, so we will be left to find the best of the rest if the consensus turns out to be the case.

            It looks most likely that this will be a choice between Elijah Hollnads and DGB. It would be surprising if we picked someone other than one of these 4. I would say Nik Cox is a very long shot; he's moving up in the rankings and is a KPP.

            ACL injury aside, in most years I would favour Hollands. But with 2 gun midfielders being added to our list this year with our following 2 picks, I'm leaning slightly toward DGB, despite already having several defenders needing development time.

            Picking up Gould and DGB in consecutive drafts should form a backline anchor a long-term to come, barring go home and TPP concerns.

            Comment

            • dejavoodoo44
              Veterans List
              • Apr 2015
              • 8495

              Yes, as well as being skilful, he also seems to be a level headed kid.

              Though I had a wry chuckle at the Callum Twomey line, that was something like, "Campbell will join a long list of high draft picks, that Sydney have got through their academy: a list that includes Heeney, Mills and Blakey". Well no, Cal; that is the list, not a part of a longer list.

              Comment

              • dejavoodoo44
                Veterans List
                • Apr 2015
                • 8495

                Originally posted by Ludwig
                I think most agree that we need a KPF the most, and with McDonald and Thilthorpe so highly rated, these 2 would be the preferred choices for our first pick. But the general consensus is that they are more than likely to be taken by Adelaide and North, so we will be left to find the best of the rest if the consensus turns out to be the case.

                It looks most likely that this will be a choice between Elijah Hollnads and DGB. It would be surprising if we picked someone other than one of these 4. I would say Nik Cox is a very long shot; he's moving up in the rankings and is a KPP.

                ACL injury aside, in most years I would favour Hollands. But with 2 gun midfielders being added to our list this year with our following 2 picks, I'm leaning slightly toward DGB, despite already having several defenders needing development time.

                Picking up Gould and DGB in consecutive drafts should form a backline anchor a long-term to come, barring go home and TPP concerns.
                Yes, although if we can't get McDonald or Thilthorpe, I would be very happy with Phillips. Wouldn't mind Nik Cox either, if we could somehow trade down for him, but the logistics of that might be very messy on the night; and that would only become an option, if we miss out on the higher ranked KPFs.

                Comment

                • bloodspirit
                  Clubman
                  • Apr 2015
                  • 4448

                  Yeah, I'm warming to DGB too. Possibly edging in front of Elijah Hollands. I like his ambition and I like that his role is so clear - key tall defender - never mind versatility! I feel more confident that we will get what we want with DGB whereas Elijah somehow feels a bit more mercurial. He could be a megastar but could he be a relative bust? Maybe it's just because DGB got to play this year and Elijah didn't. I really don't know which is best but I'm no longer going to be disappointed if we select DGB in front of Elijah.

                  Another question is which to choose between Riley Thilthorpe and DGB if we have the choice. Probably RT but mostly because we have greater need for a forward and RT can play ruck too, but Logan McDonald (and JUH) are the only players I have clearly ranked as first two. I reckon DGB, RT and EH are 3-5 but I'm not sure in what order. Then Will Phillips. Then it starts to open up a bit more.

                  I still really like the idea of offering the Suns our 2021 first for pick 5/6 and take Will Phillips or Elijah Hollands, whichever hasn't been taken. I'm not sure if I would do that deal if I were the Suns, but I might. The Suns don't urgently need more talented youth and they are getting two Academy guns this draft already and they may get a better player in next year's draft, suiting their age profile better. This is the idea our recruiters should be paying attention to RWO for. Hats off again to whoever suggested this - great proposal.
                  All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                  Comment

                  • Markwebbos
                    Veterans List
                    • Jul 2016
                    • 7186

                    Aren't we supposed to take "best available" in the first round and worry about needs with our later picks? Then it's about who is the best player likely to fall to us at pick 4 out of RT, EH and DGB.

                    Comment

                    • The Big Cat
                      On the veteran's list
                      • Apr 2006
                      • 2350

                      SEN saying North have resolved to taking pick 2 to the draft after Essendon refused to trade two of their 3 top ten picks for the second pick. Probably helps the Swans as the rumour is that North will take Holland and not one of the taels. Let's hope Crows go with SA boy.
                      Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.

                      Comment

                      • liz
                        Veteran
                        Site Admin
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 16739

                        Originally posted by The Big Cat
                        ... after Essendon refused to trade two of their 3 top ten picks for the second pick.
                        Presumably Essendon were offering the third of those picks plus a future 5th round draft pick...

                        Comment

                        • Thunder Shaker
                          Aut vincere aut mori
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 4160

                          AFL Road to the Draft has done their annual mock draft for 2020.

                          Sydney's picks in this mock draft: 4 E.Hollands, 9 B.Campbell (matching Essendon), 18 E.Gulden (matching GWS).

                          The mock draft covered the first round of the draft, which went out to pick 26.

                          The full list that I compiled while listening to the podcast:

                          1. Ade R.Thilthorpe
                          2. WB. J.Ugle-Hagan (A)
                          3. NM. L.McDonald
                          4. Syd E.Hollands
                          5. Haw D.Grainger-Barras
                          6. GCS A.Perkins
                          7. Ess W.Phillips
                          8. Ess O.Henry
                          9. Syd B.Campbell (A)
                          10 PA. L.Jones (A)
                          11 Ess N.Cox
                          12 Ade F.Macrae
                          13 GWS Z.Reid
                          14 NM. H.Chapman
                          15 Fre T.Bruhn
                          16 GWS T.Powell
                          17 Col B.Cook
                          18 Syd E.Gulden (A)
                          19 GWS S.Berry
                          20 Col C.Poulter
                          21 Ric N.O'Driscoll
                          22 Col R.McInnes (A)
                          23 Mel J.Carroll
                          24 Mel C.Stone
                          25 GWS B.Laurie
                          26 StK J.Bowey

                          I don't agree with all the choices.
                          * I don't see T.Bruhn sliding to pick 15. I think he'll be drafted by Essendon, who will quickly draft any of the Fantastic Five who are still available, and IMO will consider T.Bruhn closely.
                          * I think Hawthorn may consider the best available midfielder with their pick. That would be Hollands or Phillips.
                          * This mock draft had GWS bidding on Gulden, but it's also possible that they would bid on R.McInnes (Coll).
                          "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                          Comment

                          • Markwebbos
                            Veterans List
                            • Jul 2016
                            • 7186

                            Originally posted by liz
                            Presumably Essendon were offering the third of those picks plus a future 5th round draft pick...
                            Dodoro insisted that any deal would have to include a player: either LDU or Cunnington

                            Comment

                            • bloodspirit
                              Clubman
                              • Apr 2015
                              • 4448

                              Given that Elijah Taylor's departure has freed up a list spot, what do people think about us drafting a project ruck with our fourth pick: e.g. Max Heath or, if he's gone, possibly Shannon
                              Neale?
                              All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                              Comment

                              • The Runner
                                Regular in the Side
                                • May 2017
                                • 718

                                Originally posted by Markwebbos
                                Aren't we supposed to take "best available" in the first round and worry about needs with our later picks? Then it's about who is the best player likely to fall to us at pick 4 out of RT, EH and DGB.
                                Given its not apples for apples, it's not easy to have a clear winner

                                Comment

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