2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

If whoever we draft doesnt play round 1 en route to 18+ games, ill lose my sh8t

I believe you.

***

MattW, why do you see Paddy McCartin as a stopgap? If he's actually fit and up to the rigours of AFL football, then why can't he be a long term prospect? His ceiling is presumably high, having been #1 draft pick. And he is still relatively young (24 years old) and coming into his prime.

The problem is he has had at least 8 concussions in his AFL career including at least 3 in the 2016 season: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_McCartin. If he's had so many, why would they cease now? It's a remarkably high number coming in an era where concussions are not all that common, and are closely monitored. In each AFL round there are about 400 players who take the field and there's probably less than one concussion per round? So, probably that is your point. There is a high risk his career will be interrupted again - or ended - by concussion.

[The Runner]

A lot of the concussions appear to be a result of him flying for contests and getting accidental knocks to the head. You'd assume his longevity will be linked to his ability to protect himself in contests.
There's going when it's your time to go for a contest. And knowing you cannot impact the result of the contest and holding back. Or using your body to protect the head more effectively.
If he can get the balance right, he'll be a great player for a long time.

[bloodspirit]

Incidentally, may I commend to you all Draft Central's 3rd annual Guide to the Draft - available here: https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2020-afl-draft-guide/. There's a nice write up of Braeden Campbell - looks a gun, with the main knock on him being his endurance (took over 7 minutes in 2km time trial - more than 1.5 minutes behind the very quickest running machines) - and also one of Errol Gulden who they present as smart and consistent. Both are rated top 30.

Five other Swans Academy prospects rate a mention and get a short write up: Sam Gaden, Kye Pfrengle, Pierce Roseby (I don't remember ever hearing of him), Marco Rossman and Marc Sheather. I think Kinnear Beatson indicated that he thought one of the these guys would quite possibly get drafted, but he declined to say which.

I think GWS Academy prospects include: Joshua Green (Tom's younger brother), Jack Driscoll and Liam Delahunty.

Former GWS Academy player, Tom Highmore, is a great chance to be drafted. And former Swans Academy player, Sam Fisher, is also a chance.

[aardvark]

Class of 2020: Why Braeden Campbell is Sydney's next Academy star

[Ludwig]

I think most agree that we need a KPF the most, and with McDonald and Thilthorpe so highly rated, these 2 would be the preferred choices for our first pick. But the general consensus is that they are more than likely to be taken by Adelaide and North, so we will be left to find the best of the rest if the consensus turns out to be the case.

It looks most likely that this will be a choice between Elijah Hollnads and DGB. It would be surprising if we picked someone other than one of these 4. I would say Nik Cox is a very long shot; he's moving up in the rankings and is a KPP.

ACL injury aside, in most years I would favour Hollands. But with 2 gun midfielders being added to our list this year with our following 2 picks, I'm leaning slightly toward DGB, despite already having several defenders needing development time.

Picking up Gould and DGB in consecutive drafts should form a backline anchor a long-term to come, barring go home and TPP concerns.

[dejavoodoo44]

Class of 2020: Why Braeden Campbell is Sydney's next Academy star

Yes, as well as being skilful, he also seems to be a level headed kid.

Though I had a wry chuckle at the Callum Twomey line, that was something like, "Campbell will join a long list of high draft picks, that Sydney have got through their academy: a list that includes Heeney, Mills and Blakey". Well no, Cal; that is the list, not a part of a longer list.

[dejavoodoo44]

I think most agree that we need a KPF the most, and with McDonald and Thilthorpe so highly rated, these 2 would be the preferred choices for our first pick. But the general consensus is that they are more than likely to be taken by Adelaide and North, so we will be left to find the best of the rest if the consensus turns out to be the case.

It looks most likely that this will be a choice between Elijah Hollnads and DGB. It would be surprising if we picked someone other than one of these 4. I would say Nik Cox is a very long shot; he's moving up in the rankings and is a KPP.

ACL injury aside, in most years I would favour Hollands. But with 2 gun midfielders being added to our list this year with our following 2 picks, I'm leaning slightly toward DGB, despite already having several defenders needing development time.

Picking up Gould and DGB in consecutive drafts should form a backline anchor a long-term to come, barring go home and TPP concerns.

Yes, although if we can't get McDonald or Thilthorpe, I would be very happy with Phillips. Wouldn't mind Nik Cox either, if we could somehow trade down for him, but the logistics of that might be very messy on the night; and that would only become an option, if we miss out on the higher ranked KPFs.

[bloodspirit]

Yeah, I'm warming to DGB too. Possibly edging in front of Elijah Hollands. I like his ambition and I like that his role is so clear - key tall defender - never mind versatility! I feel more confident that we will get what we want with DGB whereas Elijah somehow feels a bit more mercurial. He could be a megastar but could he be a relative bust? Maybe it's just because DGB got to play this year and Elijah didn't. I really don't know which is best but I'm no longer going to be disappointed if we select DGB in front of Elijah.

Another question is which to choose between Riley Thilthorpe and DGB if we have the choice. Probably RT but mostly because we have greater need for a forward and RT can play ruck too, but Logan McDonald (and JUH) are the only players I have clearly ranked as first two. I reckon DGB, RT and EH are 3-5 but I'm not sure in what order. Then Will Phillips. Then it starts to open up a bit more.

I still really like the idea of offering the Suns our 2021 first for pick 5/6 and take Will Phillips or Elijah Hollands, whichever hasn't been taken. I'm not sure if I would do that deal if I were the Suns, but I might. The Suns don't urgently need more talented youth and they are getting two Academy guns this draft already and they may get a better player in next year's draft, suiting their age profile better. This is the idea our recruiters should be paying attention to RWO for. Hats off again to whoever suggested this - great proposal.

[Markwebbos]

Aren't we supposed to take "best available" in the first round and worry about needs with our later picks? Then it's about who is the best player likely to fall to us at pick 4 out of RT, EH and DGB.

[The Big Cat]

SEN saying North have resolved to taking pick 2 to the draft after Essendon refused to trade two of their 3 top ten picks for the second pick. Probably helps the Swans as the rumour is that North will take Holland and not one of the taels. Let's hope Crows go with SA boy.

[liz]

... after Essendon refused to trade two of their 3 top ten picks for the second pick.

Presumably Essendon were offering the third of those picks plus a future 5th round draft pick...

[Thunder Shaker]

AFL Road to the Draft has done their annual mock draft for 2020.

Sydney's picks in this mock draft: 4 E.Hollands, 9 B.Campbell (matching Essendon), 18 E.Gulden (matching GWS).

The mock draft covered the first round of the draft, which went out to pick 26.

The full list that I compiled while listening to the podcast:

1. Ade R.Thilthorpe
2. WB. J.Ugle-Hagan (A)
3. NM. L.McDonald
4. Syd E.Hollands
5. Haw D.Grainger-Barras
6. GCS A.Perkins
7. Ess W.Phillips
8. Ess O.Henry
9. Syd B.Campbell (A)
10 PA. L.Jones (A)
11 Ess N.Cox
12 Ade F.Macrae
13 GWS Z.Reid
14 NM. H.Chapman
15 Fre T.Bruhn
16 GWS T.Powell
17 Col B.Cook
18 Syd E.Gulden (A)
19 GWS S.Berry
20 Col C.Poulter
21 Ric N.O'Driscoll
22 Col R.McInnes (A)
23 Mel J.Carroll
24 Mel C.Stone
25 GWS B.Laurie
26 StK J.Bowey

I don't agree with all the choices.
* I don't see T.Bruhn sliding to pick 15. I think he'll be drafted by Essendon, who will quickly draft any of the Fantastic Five who are still available, and IMO will consider T.Bruhn closely.
* I think Hawthorn may consider the best available midfielder with their pick. That would be Hollands or Phillips.
* This mock draft had GWS bidding on Gulden, but it's also possible that they would bid on R.McInnes (Coll).

[Markwebbos]

Presumably Essendon were offering the third of those picks plus a future 5th round draft pick...

Dodoro insisted that any deal would have to include a player: either LDU or Cunnington

[bloodspirit]

Given that Elijah Taylor's departure has freed up a list spot, what do people think about us drafting a project ruck with our fourth pick: e.g. Max Heath or, if he's gone, possibly Shannon

Neale?

[The Runner]

Aren't we supposed to take "best available" in the first round and worry about needs with our later picks? Then it's about who is the best player likely to fall to us at pick 4 out of RT, EH and DGB.

Given its not apples for apples, it's not easy to have a clear winner