2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Auntie.Gerald]

My gut feeling is that Campbell and gulden will get popped into the forwards and or run with roles until their tanks are truly ready

We heard KB say how difficult it is to build that tank for AFL level week to week

But after that development phase we would see, most likely Campbell playing a Saad, McGrath type role hurting teams from HBF and maybe Gulden playing a Lloyd type qtr back role?

Therefore if that was the the development with then a W Phillips style player would fit in the mids and take over from a Kennedy, Park in due course

But we may deem that between Rowbottom, Hewett, Warner are enough ? I suspect with our outside mid focus last few years ie blakey, florent, Ling, McInerny, Stephens etc we will be needing another inside quality prospect this year or next. Some of the above may travel thru the inside mid rotation but they are more adept on the outside for a while.

[Auntie.Gerald]

SWANs 2020

We ranked last for points scored from stoppages

17th for contested possession differential

17th for inside 50 differential.

[SwanSand]

Maybe, but we are also a club that has built successive, highly effective defensive units relying largely on the rookie draft and back end of the national draft - Barry (failed forward, zone selection), Bolton (PSD), Malceski, Kennelly, Grundy, Smith, Rampe, Aliir, Melican. Crouch was a high draft pick. So was Mills, but he was drafted with midfield in mind, regardless of the reasons why he's still in defence. McVeigh, another high draft pick, only went back to defence at the end of his career. He started in the forward line and through the midfield. Sure, we did give up a late first round draft pick to trade in Richards but he's a bit of an outlier.

I went back and rewatched the Phillips highlight reel to try and put my finger on why I was underwhelmed. I think part of it a lack of any evidence of overhead contests. (Compare to Campbell's reel - I don't think he's thought of as an overhead specialist, in the way that Parker, Heeney and Mills were when drafted, but there are several examples on his reel of very strong contested marks.) And also an almost complete absence of physically attacking contests - ie crashing into packs at draft level. I'm not suggesting he's soft - clearly he puts his head over the ball and seems happy to take contact. There's just not much evidence of him liking to initiate contact. It's more filled with swooping on the ball, almost uncontested ground ball and then backing out the back to find space, rather than crashing through. Compare that to the highlights of, say, Rowbottom before he was drafted (and we now have plenty of evidence that he has taken that to AFL level). And that bursting through traffic, rather than backing out of traffic, is one of the things that makes Rowell so damaging and exciting to watch. Maybe Phillips' raw possession numbers stack up well against Rowell at the same age but they seem to go about things in a different way.

I think Phillips will become a good AFL player, possibly a very good player. He's probably the lowest risk of the top handful of draft candidates. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to translate that back-out-the-back style to AFL level. He'll find there's far less space and time. And while he reminds me a little of Tom Mitchell, there's nothing on that highlights reel to suggest he has Tom's ability to dig the ball out from the bottom of a pack and fire off an instant, smart handball.

I might be more enthusiastic about us drafting him if we didn't also have Campbell and Gulden lined up. I'm not convinced he offers anything clearly different to them.

When Heath Grundy was playing and Mills came in as a first year player and became that intercept defender ... our team did look good. We do lack that pattern of play at present. So I can see why DGB will fit and fit well in the system.
But we already have plethora of defenders. Why do we need one more. we don’t need a intercept defender we need a tall lock down KPD who is already in development in Tom McCartin.
Anyways KB will have enough reasons to choose whoever he and the recruiters choose.

[MattW]

I reckon Aliir did pretty well in the ruck - except for one game. He looked absolutely terrified at the prospect at jumping against NicNat in the ruck. I don't really blame him. Not only does NicNat have a huge leap on him, he's a huge man. Far too big for someone who can still jump that effectively. Aliir didn't even both trying to compete at centre bounces in that game, and I got the feeling Longmire wasn't impressed with that. Maybe a tad unreasonably.

I've pretty much only got highlight reels to go on, other than some vague memories of the U17 Futures game before the 2019 Grand Final. I thought Hollands was the best player on the ground by some margin. Campbell was very good with what he did but Hollands' production level was much higher. I remember Phillips being busy in that game too - maybe the second best player but without the power that Hollands displayed.

Of the highlight reels I've watched, I think Thilthorpe's and Campbell's are the most impressive. I realise you need to approach them with caution, but it's the sheer variety of skills, plays and attributes that these two display that I find impressive. With Campbell, for example, we seem him running hard on the outside yet also winning the hard ball. We see him burst from traffic. We see some overhead contested marks and him going into tackle as hard as Heeney does. We see wonderful finishing in front of goal, and also beautiful, pinpoint field kicks. His limitation at the moment seems to be his endurance, which explains why he doesn't get the ball as much as other players. If he had the endurance of Errol, he'd likely be in the mix for the number one draft spot.

Phillips' highlights reel left me a bit nonplussed for the counter reason. It was pretty much one note. He clearly can run all day, knows where to go to get the ball, and can distribute it competently. All teams need a player or two like that, but they're not the most exciting to watch. Think Mitchell. Think Neale. Both have won Brownlows on the basis of accumulating huge possession numbers, but others are far more damaging with ball in hand. I'm somewhat surprised to read him linked to Hawthorn because he seems to be what they already have.

I don't entirely agree with Ludwig that our midfield is set for youth, but I don't think Phillips is what we really need. Part of that is based on the highly likely recruitment of Gulden. Yes, he's a little shorter than Phillips but otherwise they seem to be similar players. Phillips may be a tiny bit quicker - certainly his testing suggests that - but Errol is deceptively quick when the ball is there to be won. Phillips' skills might be a bit better honed, but I think Errol might edge him for creativity and vision (with the qualification that I've watched a lot more of Errol).

I doubt McDonald will be available. I'd be happy with either Hollands or Thilthorpe, notwithstanding injury concerns. Groin problems for young, very tall players who try to run around like midfielders are always a concern, maybe more so than ACL injuries. Look what Daniher has gone through over the last three seasons.

I've seen nothing of Grainger-Barrass. Haven't even watched his highlight reel. As a general rule, I reckon using very high draft picks on rucks, defenders of any kind or small forwards is a complete waste. If you look through the best of all those types of player in the league, they're just as likely to have emerged from the rookie draft (or late in the ND) as they are from the first round. And any tall player, whether key position or ruck, drafted at age 18 poses a high risk of not reaching their potential due to injury. There's just so much more physical development left to happen for a tall teenager than for a "normal sized" player. With tall forwards the risk of taking them with early picks is warranted because you generally have to take that risk. But given you can find perfectly serviceable tall defenders and rucks with much later picks, I'm not a fan of using pick 3/4 on GB.

You're right about history suggesting elite tall defenders often come from later draft picks or the rookie draft.

However, I don't think that should determine, slavishly, how we should approach the draft if we genuinely think he's the best player available and that he'll be an elite tall defender - a Moore, Grimes or Andrews. Those players are among the most important players in their team, and it's a position we lack (unless we think McCartin is going to be an elite tall defender, which is not impossible to imagine).

I suggest you consider giving this clip a watch, as it includes an interview - there's a competitiveness and drive which you can imagine impressing our recruiters.

Draft Class of 2020: Denver Grainger-Barras https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/video/839182/draft-class-of-2020-denver-grainger-barras?videoId=839182&modal=true&type=video

[Auntie.Gerald]

just out of interest
(I think 707 or TS did an analysis somewhere on this thread)

If Campbell isnt quite rated is highly for what ever reason and he goes at say 10 or 13 due to go home factor being significant and he may only get 10 games or so first two seasons at a melb club for example.

And Gulden isnt rated as highly due to go home factor and other clubs having other needs or comparable type players on their list.....Gulden goes at pick 30

10, 30 = 1120, 500 = 1620 discounted
13,30 = 960, 500 = 1460 discounted

and our picks are 3, 34, 37, 43, 48, 58, 60 and 82 we have a total value of 2021 ........then if we only used say picks 10 and 30 discounted we would have remaining 400 pts or pick 41 which we could trade for next year if we dont need to use it ?? it may end up a pick 35ish next season if lucky?

3 =
34 = 542
37 = 483
43 = 378
48 = 302
58 = 170
60 = 146
82 = 0

[gloveski]

just out of interest
(I think 707 or TS did an analysis somewhere on this thread)

If Campbell isnt quite rated is highly for what ever reason and he goes at say 10 or 13 due to go home factor being significant and he may only get 10 games or so first two seasons at a melb club for example.

And Gulden isnt rated as highly due to go home factor and other clubs having other needs or comparable type players on their list.....Gulden goes at pick 30

10, 30 = 1120, 500 = 1620 discounted
13,30 = 960, 500 = 1460 discounted

and our picks are 3, 34, 37, 43, 48, 58, 60 and 82 we have a total value of 2021 ........then if we only used say picks 10 and 30 discounted we would have remaining 400 pts or pick 41 which we could trade for next year if we dont need to use it ?? it may end up a pick 35ish next season if lucky?

3 =
34 = 542
37 = 483
43 = 378
48 = 302
58 = 170
60 = 146
82 = 0

I’ll be gobsmacked if Essendon don’t bid on Campbell with one of their picks


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[707]

I’ll be gobsmacked if Essendon don’t bid on Campbell with one of their picks

The Dodo is thrilled to have three consecutive picks this high in the draft, not only should he get three good players but he can do some academy/NGA damage as well. Campbell almost certain to get a bid from the Dodo that we'll match, highly likely he bids on Jones that Port will match, a chance he could throw one in for McInnes at what would then be pick 11 giving the Pies a headache to add to their already disastrous off season - I like that :-)

Please note that from pick 19 onwards there is a fixed discount of 197 points and not the 20% applied for picks 1-18 which assists us the further out the Gulden pick comes.

[Thunder Shaker]

I suggest you consider giving this clip a watch, as it includes an interview - there's a competitiveness and drive which you can imagine impressing our recruiters.

Draft Class of 2020: Denver Grainger-Barras Draft Class of 2020: Denver Grainger-Barras

One interesting thing from this video: Denver Grainger-Barras played for a half on McDonald in the WAFL. McDonald scored three goals in the first half, but when DGB was on him in the second half, McDonald scored no further goals.

Here is the stats for the match in question: Swan Districts v Perth (WAFL, round 8)
DGB is #15 for Swans, McDonald #6 for Perth.

[Markwebbos]

My gut feeling is that Campbell and gulden will get popped into the forwards and or run with roles until their tanks are truly ready

We heard KB say how difficult it is to build that tank for AFL level week to week

But after that development phase we would see, most likely Campbell playing a Saad, McGrath type role hurting teams from HBF and maybe Gulden playing a Lloyd type qtr back role?

Therefore if that was the the development with then a W Phillips style player would fit in the mids and take over from a Kennedy, Park in due course

But we may deem that between Rowbottom, Hewett, Warner are enough ? I suspect with our outside mid focus last few years ie blakey, florent, Ling, McInerny, Stephens etc we will be needing another inside quality prospect this year or next. Some of the above may travel thru the inside mid rotation but they are more adept on the outside for a while.

AG, why wouldn’t they both end up playing in midfield?

[Auntie.Gerald]

MW
U might have to ask the more dominant midfielders at the same age called Heeney and Mills

Its a mystery this player trajectory thing once an AFL player

I've always thought great HBFs impact the game more than wingers who play more so one on one. A great HBF can split an opposition apart.

[Ludwig]

Philips looks a tough, solid in and under mid, with pace and clean hands and feet . I’m puzzled that you think our midfield is set and we don’t need to add to it. Rowbottom is good.. what else do we have there for the future ? On the inside ?

I am very much convinced that we have an excess of midfield depth, which is my primary objection to drafting Phillips.

My starting point is that I have 9 defenders to cover 6 spots: Rampe, Melican, Brand, McCartin, Gould, Fox, O'Riordan, Lloyd and Cunningham. I like both Dawson and Mills in defence, but I can't find a way to fit them in.

Let's overstock the forward line with another 9 players to fill 6 spots: Franklin, Reid, Dawson, Heeney, Hayward, Papley, Taylor, Ronke and Wicks. And then there's the developing Amartey and McLean. Campbell will more than likely start forward in his first few seasons. So I've pushed this up the 12 players to cover 6 spots; a few can be kicked out of the forward line for one objection or another (Ronke and Taylor doubters). Some can cover in the midfield if needed.

So that leaves the midfield. Let's omit JPK because of age. We will keep him in reserve this year. We have 9 spots left, including the bench, although a couple from the list of forwards and defenders could help fill those 9 spots :

Mostly inside: Parker, Mills, Hewett, Rowbottom, Warner (JPK in reserve and not counted)
Inside/Outside: Florent, Stephens, Gulden, Clarke, Bell
Mostly outside: Blakey, McInerney, Ling

That's 13 players to fill 7-9 spots. Yes, there's a lot of youth in there, including players just at the start of their development. But Phillips will not help this situation. He will just add to he queue of players trying to squeeze his way into the midfield, pushing past some of the less accomplished backups, like Clarke and Bell. Only time, both in regards to age and game numbers, will overcome the lack of experience. All the players on the list deserve to be in the senior side, either on merit or for the purpose of development.

Some might look at this list of midfielders and see a wooden spoon. But it looks a very good young group to me. I see a greater challenge in getting a sufficient amount of senior playing time into the likes of Ling, Warner and Bell, than finding some more players to add to the competition for spots. There's another draft next year, replacing those from the current list who don't make the grade. But the core of youth is solid.

[SwanSand]

AG, why wouldn’t they both end up playing in midfield?

In all honesty, we won’t be able to fit Campbell or Gulden in the defensive end of the field. We are stacked with options.
JMac, Dawson, mills,Lloyd Cunningham and Rampe are good enough distributors.
Campbell goes in forward role and if Gulden has good tank he goes on the wing with Stephens.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I am very much convinced that we have an excess of midfield depth, which is my primary objection to drafting Phillips.

My starting point is that I have 9 defenders to cover 6 spots: Rampe, Melican, Brand, McCartin, Gould, Fox, O'Riordan, Lloyd and Cunningham. I like both Dawson and Mills in defence, but I can't find a way to fit them in.

Let's overstock the forward line with another 9 players to fill 6 spots: Franklin, Reid, Dawson, Heeney, Hayward, Papley, Taylor, Ronke and Wicks. And then there's the developing Amartey and McLean. Campbell will more than likely start forward in his first few seasons. So I've pushed this up the 12 players to cover 6 spots; a few can be kicked out of the forward line for one objection or another (Ronke and Taylor doubters). Some can cover in the midfield if needed.

So that leaves the midfield. Let's omit JPK because of age. We will keep him in reserve this year. We have 9 spots left, including the bench, although a couple from the list of forwards and defenders could help fill those 9 spots :

Mostly inside: Parker, Mills, Hewett, Rowbottom, Warner (JPK in reserve and not counted)
Inside/Outside: Florent, Stephens, Gulden, Clarke, Bell
Mostly outside: Blakey, McInerney, Ling

That's 13 players to fill 7-9 spots. Yes, there's a lot of youth in there, including players just at the start of their development. But Phillips will not help this situation. He will just add to he queue of players trying to squeeze his way into the midfield, pushing past some of the less accomplished backups, like Clarke and Bell. Only time, both in regards to age and game numbers, will overcome the lack of experience. All the players on the list deserve to be in the senior side, either on merit or for the purpose of development.

Some might look at this list of midfielders and see a wooden spoon. But it looks a very good young group to me. I see a greater challenge in getting a sufficient amount of senior playing time into the likes of Ling, Warner and Bell, than finding some more players to add to the competition for spots. There's another draft next year, replacing those from the current list who don't make the grade. But the core of youth is solid.

Hmmm we’re not going to agree on this one. I feel Parker is unlikely to be a key cog when we’re next contending. Mills looks firmly entrenched in defence. Remains to be seen if Clarke, Ling and Bell are best 22.
Warner I’m even less bullish on at this stage ( although I’ll withhold judgement for another season at least ). For me we are still short of top end talent in the guts, we lack major ball winners.

Anyway let’s see what unfolds come next week, whoever we choose at 3 we are going to be getting a very talented young player and we have several holes on the list that need to be filled. There’s no bad options of the obvious ones likely to be available come our first pick.


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[Ralph Dawg]

I was impressed by Tom Mc playing back but I still think his greatest worth to us is to continue his development as a tall forward. This is especially so if we don't draft McDonald or Thilthorpe.

With this in mind, I'm warming to drafting DGB and form permitting, getting games into Gould. I share Ludwig's concerns about being too heavy in midfielders. If we were going to get Phillips or Hollands (on top of Gulden and Campbell), then we should've moved on a few of our existing midfielders. Bell and Clarke are 2 that spring to mind.

A backline from Rampe, Gould, DGB, Lloyd, Cunningham, Mills, Dawson, Melican, Brand, Ling and Fox will still be handy. In particular, if Gould, Ling and DGB are best 22 by the end of 2021, we will be one step closer to our next tilt at the flag.

[AB Swannie]

MW
U might have to ask the more dominant midfielders at the same age called Heeney and Mills

Its a mystery this player trajectory thing once an AFL player

I've always thought great HBFs impact the game more than wingers who play more so one on one. A great HBF can split an opposition apart.

It’s a fallacy that Longmire refuses to play young players in the midfield. Sure, both Mills and Heeney have played in different positions but with good reason - they excel in those other positions. Mills has proven to be an outstanding defender from day one. Heeney causes headaches forward. He has played midfield but is much more dangerous forward. On the other hand, Rowbottom has played midfield almost from game 1. Florent is a midfielder. Stephens played midfield. McInerney the same.

I do believe that Campbell and a Gulden will likely start half forward but they are just as likely as anyone to be playing midfield by 2023 and saying there for 10 years.