Great expectations

[Ruck'n'Roll]

All the more praise for our "inexperienced" backline as we had a % of 97. And our average losing margin was 22 points. How much improvement do we need to bridge that gap?

Agreed the backline wasn't the problem last year. Bridging that 22 point gap does not appear to be something Buddy will be able to achieve. He will increase our scoring a bit, but the footywire stats suggest the majority of his goals would have been kicked by someone else if he was absent. In any case the forward line was said to be converting inside 50's into shots at goal at a very effective rate

The improvement needs to happen in the midfield.

On the + side

• Naismith looked extremely good in the 2's when he finally returned to the field.
• And while our veteran midfielders like Parker and Joey are getting old, others like Henney, Hewett and Florent have gotten 50 or 100 games under their belts - which is often when their output takes a step up.

On the - side

• The loss of Jones cost us some speed, fortunately we have been recruiting for for that for some time and I think we will be able to cover that aspect.
• Jones also brought a degree of forceful bustle to the midfield, I don't think we had anyone else on our list who could definitely provide that. O'Riordan, Rowbottom, Mcinerney (and Gould) may all have capabilities in that area but it'd be a big ask to expect it in 2020.

[Aprilbr]

I totally agree that the midfield is the key. We just need to win more of the ball in the clearances and force more inside 50s to increase our scoring opportunities. The last time we had a strong midfield and good numbers there was 2016.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[Ralph Dawg]

Looking at the most recent post by the club on FB (mark if the year type stuff), I'm feeling confident.

In Heeney, Dawson, Blakey, Mills, Hayward and McCartain, we have the core of an elite side in the coming years.

[bloodspirit]

Looking at the most recent post by the club on FB (mark if the year type stuff), I'm feeling confident.

In Heeney, Dawson, Blakey, Mills, Hayward and McCartain, we have the core of an elite side in the coming years.

If you're counting McCartin, you have to count Florent and Hayward as well plus Hewett and probably also at least one other of our youngest players: Rowbottom, Stephens, Gould. That's a lot of talent, most of whom are capable of playing through the midfield.

[Auntie.Gerald]

does this thread also lend itself to "great expectations" re the flexibility of our game plan and becoming more of a counter attack team?

...

Using turnovers as a weapon - we know that Richmonds game plan last 3 years has stacked up..... 2/3 premiership winners and exploited turnovers as their core identity

As we know an AFL side can win possession of the ball from one of three basic sources: clearances, kick-ins after behinds, or turnovers.

Although many pundits often focus on the former, it is the latter from which scoring is most often generated. In fact, about two-thirds of all points usually come from turnovers.

The stats to back it up : the number of turnovers per AFL game has increased by 13 per cent over the past four seasons, from 126 per match in 2015 to an average of 143 this season.

Games involving the Tigers feature even more: 155 per game this season, up from 125 four years ago. Crucially, no side is better at forcing its rivals into mistakes whilst minimising its own.

On average, the Tigers give up the ball nine times fewer per match than their opponents.

......

some quotes to back it up:

"Our game is a turnover game," said Hardwick at Wednesday's pre-match media conference.

"We acknowledge that, and most sides know that, so the way we set up [against Hawthorn tonight] will certainly be turnover-based."

From Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope fighting style, to Italian soccer's Catenaccio, the use of counterattacking tactics in sport has long been a source of fascination and debate.

Such strategies require an extraordinary strength of mind and purpose.

"It takes great discipline to play defence, but that's what we're doing," said Hardwick.

"If you take away [the opposition's] strengths, what are they going to do?" said Hardwick in Yellow and Black, a fly-on-the-wall recount of the club's 2017 premiership.

"They're gonna try to go for it, and eventually, they're going to lose."

[Legs Akimbo]

does this thread also lend itself to "great expectations" re the flexibility of our game plan and becoming more of a counter attack team?

...

Using turnovers as a weapon - we know that Richmonds game plan last 3 years has stacked up..... 2/3 premiership winners and exploited turnovers as their core identity

As we know an AFL side can win possession of the ball from one of three basic sources: clearances, kick-ins after behinds, or turnovers.

Although many pundits often focus on the former, it is the latter from which scoring is most often generated. In fact, about two-thirds of all points usually come from turnovers.

The stats to back it up : the number of turnovers per AFL game has increased by 13 per cent over the past four seasons, from 126 per match in 2015 to an average of 143 this season.

Games involving the Tigers feature even more: 155 per game this season, up from 125 four years ago. Crucially, no side is better at forcing its rivals into mistakes whilst minimising its own.

On average, the Tigers give up the ball nine times fewer per match than their opponents.

......

some quotes to back it up:

"Our game is a turnover game," said Hardwick at Wednesday's pre-match media conference.

"We acknowledge that, and most sides know that, so the way we set up [against Hawthorn tonight] will certainly be turnover-based."

From Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope fighting style, to Italian soccer's Catenaccio, the use of counterattacking tactics in sport has long been a source of fascination and debate.

Such strategies require an extraordinary strength of mind and purpose.

"It takes great discipline to play defence, but that's what we're doing," said Hardwick.

"If you take away [the opposition's] strengths, what are they going to do?" said Hardwick in Yellow and Black, a fly-on-the-wall recount of the club's 2017 premiership.

"They're gonna try to go for it, and eventually, they're going to lose."

Great post. Our 2012 slingshot game style was similar. Pressure forcing turnover and counter attack when the opposition is out of position. You need the right cattle to make it work.

My great expectations are on Warner. I've taken a liking to him from the first minute I saw his highlights. Hard nut goes 100 percent all the time.

[Markwebbos]

I thought every team except for us is already playing the “forward 50” or “territory” game based on turnover but in the offensive end of the ground?

[bloodspirit]

The shift towards more counter-attacking, turnover footy might explain why we have prioritised pace in our drafting and why we chose Dylan Stephens ahead of, say, Tom Green. Has the JPK role become devalued?

[Auntie.Gerald]

hey all
apologies re the deletes above
was using my samsung mobile to log on and it deletes each time and did the other day also
logged back in via laptop now

For me Matt Ling our no 1 (pick14) draftee in 2017 is the type of player we need to jump ahead and feature in our 22 thru out 2020
my fav video from the draft by far of any recruits for years

Pick 14: Matthew Ling

matt obviously has had a terrible run with injuries.
Yet Ling reminds me so much of a young Bacher Houli who only played 26 games in his first 4 seasons

So watch out if Matt Ling starts to get some serious training under his belt in 2020 as his blistering run and carry, give and goes and silky skills are awesome to watch.

[dejavoodoo44]

hey all
apologies re the deletes above
was using my samsung mobile to log on and it deletes each time and did the other day also
logged back in via laptop now

For me Matt Ling our no 1 (pick14) draftee in 2017 is the type of player we need to jump ahead and feature in our 22 thru out 2020
my fav video from the draft by far of any recruits for years

Pick 14: Matthew Ling

matt obviously has had a terrible run with injuries.
Yet Ling reminds me so much of a young Bacher Houli who only played 26 games in his first 4 seasons

So watch out if Matt Ling starts to get some serious training under his belt in 2020 as his blistering run and carry, give and goes and silky skills are awesome to watch.

Yes, I really liked some of Ling's work in the NEAFL; on the few occasions that he was approaching full fitness. Plenty of pace and even more elusiveness. He gave the impression, that if you tried to keep him in a phone box, somehow he would get out before you.

Hmm: am I showing my age, using the term phone box? Do we still have any phone boxes?

[Jimitron5000]

Yes, I really liked some of Ling's work in the NEAFL; on the few occasions that he was approaching full fitness. Plenty of pace and even more elusiveness. He gave the impression, that if you tried to keep him in a phone box, somehow he would get out before you.

Hmm: am I showing my age, using the term phone box? Do we still have any phone boxes?

Lots of phone boxes, kept mainly for advertising revenue rather than the actual phone. They are quite lucrative for Telstra apparently.

[SeanM]

Some posters on the other swans forum are negative about Ling because he has been injured. But I like him. He looked very good in the few reserve games he played. I remember a game where he came on after half time and did some classy things. He had the ball on the boundary line, stepped past the player on the mark, went for a run then did one of those flat passes off the inside of his boot to set up a shot for goal.

He does not seem to be in full training yet. So my guess is that they might be super cautious with his training loads and match time just to get him through a whole season without injuries. It might be light training and half a NEAFL game for the first part of the season. So I am not sure if he will be playing senior football in the short term. But if he does debut maybe he might be more of a winger than a half back initially.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

We will need a runner off half back, a successor to Rhyce and Captain Gumby. Both Ling and Stoddart were recruited to fill that need, but does anyone think either would be ready in 2020?
They're both still awfully light to be mixing it with the big boys - even if Ling is over his injury woes.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The big Caveat

It was recently reported in the preseason thread that Sam Naismith had been seen running laps rather than taking a full part in training. Then it was rumoured that he'd done his Achilles.

It just reminded me just how fragile our ruck situation is.

Based on recent years. With Sinkers as our primary ruckman we can expect an average of about 30 hitouts per game (the vast majority from him, rather than the part-timers).
When both Naismith and Sinkers play, we get an average of more than 45 hitouts per game. With Naismith contributing close to 30 and Sinkers chipping in with 17 (with a goal every game or two).

It's little wonder that a 50% reduction in hitouts is going to adversely affect a midfield, ours more than most because our top midfielder JPK is one of the games pre-eminent first receivers.

I think we need a double ruck approach and I was hopeful given Sam's last two games in the 2's that we would have a functional ruck division in 2020 which would propel us back up into the finals. The below suggested Horse was of a similar mind:

* What are we going to do to fix our midfield issues? Horse: A big part of the problem was the ruck not being able to get first hands on it. Getting first use of the footy allows you to play a territory game and to put pressure on and get repeat entries. Not winning enough taps made it hard for us, although of course we tried to combat it in other ways.

* Someone asked, well, what about Richmond and the Giants who didn't have dominant ruckmen? e.g. GWS v Pies prelim Grundy v Mummy? Horse avoided the main point and focused on saying what a smart player Mummy was and how he used his body to force Grundy to tap to a particular spot where everyone would know the ball was going which went some way to neutralising Grundy's big advantage in the hitouts.

* When the club recruited Knoll they had hoped that he might be able to play a couple of games towards the back end of the season but they felt he was just coming from too far back with his game knowledge given his basketball background and it wouldn't be fair to play him in the AFL. [Unclear whether he is ready yet. If Naismith isn't available I think Knoll's a chance at some stage. Incidentally, Naismith said he would resume full training after Christmas and that his knee is fine now. He's only in rehab due to his shoulder reco.]

So our ruck situation is fragile, but its also parlous.

We have 2 Genuine Ruckmen
Naismith and Knoll, but what can we expect from them. Sam is injury prone and Knoll is an untried and last chance/mid-season draftee.
We have one excellent 2nd Ruck/Forward
Sinkers is a great support ruckman, but in his 30's he is becoming less (not more) likely to be able to carry our ruck.

So we have 3 possible ruckmen After those 3 the cupboard is bare
2 Emergency Rucks
Reid and Aliir can both fill in during emergencies, much like LRT but that's a long way from holding your own.
Kids
With all respect to McLean's efforts, he doesn't look like a ruckman to me, nor do Amarty etc.

* Horse emphasised what an important role rucks have and just generally reinforced the impression that he believes you can't have too many of them or overestimate their importance.

So how come we only have 3 ruckmen, each with significant questions about the durability or capability?

[dejavoodoo44]

It was recently reported in the preseason thread that Sam Naismith had been seen running laps rather than taking a full part in training. Then it was rumoured that he'd done his Achilles.

It just reminded me just how fragile our ruck situation is.

Based on recent years. With Sinkers as our primary ruckman we can expect an average of about 30 hitouts per game (the vast majority from him, rather than the part-timers).
When both Naismith and Sinkers play, we get an average of more than 45 hitouts per game. With Naismith contributing close to 30 and Sinkers chipping in with 17 (with a goal every game or two).

It's little wonder that a 50% reduction in hitouts is going to adversely affect a midfield, ours more than most because our top midfielder JPK is one of the games pre-eminent first receivers.

I think we need a double ruck approach and I was hopeful given Sam's last two games in the 2's that we would have a functional ruck division in 2020 which would propel us back up into the finals. The below suggested Horse was of a similar mind:



So our ruck situation is fragile, but its also parlous.

We have 2 Genuine Ruckmen
Naismith and Knoll, but what can we expect from them. Sam is injury prone and Knoll is an untried and last chance/mid-season draftee.
We have one excellent 2nd Ruck/Forward
Sinkers is a great support ruckman, but in his 30's he is becoming less (not more) likely to be able to carry our ruck.

So we have 3 possible ruckmen After those 3 the cupboard is bare
2 Emergency Rucks
Reid and Aliir can both fill in during emergencies, much like LRT but that's a long way from holding your own.
Kids
With all respect to McLean's efforts, he doesn't look like a ruckman to me, nor do Amarty etc.



So how come we only have 3 ruckmen, each with significant questions about the durability or capability?

For what it's worth, I thought that Knoll improved in the NEAFL as the season went on. At first I was a bit underwhelmed, as he was supposed to be a gun in the SANFL, but he only looked to be barely up to NEAFL standard. He seemed unable to get off the ground in ruck contests and was a bit clumsy around the ground. But then either extra confidence or fitness kicked in, and he developed more agility, along with showing a few clever skills. So I'm now confident that he can perform well in the NEAFL, and vaguely optimistic that he can step up to AFL level. And maybe the club feels some sort of confidence in him, as well. Otherwise they may have either, threw a few impediments in the way of Cameron leaving, or drafted a project ruckman.
And it now seems that the Naismith rumour was a false alarm.