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Probably the main interest for the round, is where we finish on the ladder, and consequently, which draft pick we get. We can end up with either pick 3, 4 or 5. Of those, pick 5 is the least likely, as it involves us having an upset win over the Cats and then leapfrogging over the Suns, if they’re beaten by the Hawks. Pick 3 becomes ours, if we suffer a predictable loss against the Cats, and the Hawks beat the Suns by enough to overcome the current percentage gap of roughly 3.2%: which requires a for and against swing of around 60 points. That is, our for and against is now -181, while for the Hawks, it is -241. So, if we lose by around 30 and they win by around 30, then pick 3 comes into play. However, for and against is only a rough guide. For instance, if we lose by a scoreline of 20 to 50, then our percentage drops to 80.06%, but if the score is, us 70 and Cats 100, then our percentage only drops to 80.10%. So, if things start to play out that way, the calculators might need to come out.
Of course, there’s also the question of, what would you prefer: pick 3 or finishing above the mustard on turd? Personally, I’d be perfectly happy with pick 4. Without looking it up, I doubt if there’s been any real significant historical difference, between the careers of those taken at pick 3 and those taken at pick 4.
The other area where calculators might be needed, is the battle for the last spots in the eight. The crucial games are; Saints v Giants, Bombers v Demons and Dockers v Bulldogs. Looking at the ladder, the Giants only have a very slim chance of making it. For instance, they need to beat the Saints by over 55 points, to get above them on percentage, and then either the Bulldogs or the Demons have to lose. A win by less than 55, means that both the other sides have to lose (or the Demons draw), (or the Demons only have a very narrow win). But anyway, it would be very surprising if the Giants made it. Premiership window almost closed? Quite possibly. The Demons need a bit of luck, but not as much as the Giants. They have a better percentage than the Bulldogs, so if they win and the Bulldogs lose, then they’re in.
There can be a few changes in the eight. For instance, the Saints jumping above the Magpies, into sixth, but since the upshot might be playing a final at Metricon, instead of the Gabba, then that’s much of a muchness. And I suppose that it’s worth mentioning that we could knock the Cats out of the top four. Don’t really like our chances, but hey, stranger things have happened.
Of course, there’s also the question of, what would you prefer: pick 3 or finishing above the mustard on turd? Personally, I’d be perfectly happy with pick 4. Without looking it up, I doubt if there’s been any real significant historical difference, between the careers of those taken at pick 3 and those taken at pick 4.
The other area where calculators might be needed, is the battle for the last spots in the eight. The crucial games are; Saints v Giants, Bombers v Demons and Dockers v Bulldogs. Looking at the ladder, the Giants only have a very slim chance of making it. For instance, they need to beat the Saints by over 55 points, to get above them on percentage, and then either the Bulldogs or the Demons have to lose. A win by less than 55, means that both the other sides have to lose (or the Demons draw), (or the Demons only have a very narrow win). But anyway, it would be very surprising if the Giants made it. Premiership window almost closed? Quite possibly. The Demons need a bit of luck, but not as much as the Giants. They have a better percentage than the Bulldogs, so if they win and the Bulldogs lose, then they’re in.
There can be a few changes in the eight. For instance, the Saints jumping above the Magpies, into sixth, but since the upshot might be playing a final at Metricon, instead of the Gabba, then that’s much of a muchness. And I suppose that it’s worth mentioning that we could knock the Cats out of the top four. Don’t really like our chances, but hey, stranger things have happened.
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