Expectations for 2021 season

[Ludwig]

I usually don't like making predictions about the next season. There are too many variables, particularly around injuries, that make a major impact on any given season. I agree with most of what previous posters have said, with the typical disagreement here and there that we all have regarding where we see particular players going next year.

I'm happy with the list we have and that we are going to draft 2 gun midfielders and another gun prospect with pick 3, whoever that player might be. These 3 should have a big influence on the future, but probably not so much next season. Much will depend on our senior players being fit and playing close to top form, particularly Buddy, who is worth a few places on the ladder in his own right.

We have the players on board now that can fully implement the new game plan, with quicker ball movement and more reliable skill execution. Perhaps more will depend on our coaching than the players. How quickly can our coaching staff teach the game plan to a group of players that had little practice doing so this past season? When will things start to gel as a team, rather than just a group of players not on the same page as their teammates?

We will have a change in the ruck and hopefully we can put our best forward line on the ground most games. Our depth is solid over most positions, although still young and inexperienced. We should have Melican, McCartin, Dawson and Blakey passing the 50 game mark this year, and hopefully stepping up and looking more like senior players, executing there skills with poise and precision.

Like the rest of us, I too would like to see significant development in the young group along with a move up the ladder. I don't think finals are out of the question. In fact, if Buddy can stay healthy and play up to his capabilities, we should be good enough to make finals.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

In fact, if Buddy can stay healthy and play up to his capabilities, we should be good enough to make finals.

I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.

[Thunder Shaker]

We lost 5 games last year by 10 points or less, so if we can improve our scoring by 2 goals, we'd win most of those.

I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.

Having Franklin in the side would do a lot to close the gap on this year's performances. Even 8 points a game would do a lot when we lost to Geelong by 6, Carlton by 5, Essendon by 6, Richmond by 8 and Collingwood by 9.

We weren't horribly beaten in any game this year, with the largest loss being about nine goals (St Kilda). We were competitive this year, even if we weren't winning a lot of games.

We're not that far off being a chance for finals again, but we won't improve dramatically. I think we'll end up about 12th. Don't knock a 12th-place finish. That's where we finished in 1995. The following year we finished on top and made the Grand Final.

[Ludwig]

I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.

I still think Buddy can be up there with the best key forwards in the game if he's fit, even at age 34. In other sports, top players are still at peak production into their mid thirties, but AFL takes a big toll on the body. I'm not sure if the 2019 sample size is significant enough to reach any conclusions. And he was playing with an injury when did play. In any case, 8 points on offence is significant. I wonder what the points allowed differential is, because with Buddy, we may be having more time in possession, hence reducing the opposition's time with the ball and scoring opportunities.

The difference, at least for 2021, is that Buddy gives the forward line a particular look. We will play the game differently if he's not on the ground. So it's more about how smooth we transition to a post-Buddy era.

This is the reason I said that I didn't like making predictions about the following season. Too many contingencies that can be endlessly debated.

BTW, I noticed that my name was the 2nd word you wrote upon your return. Thanks for having me in your thoughts. I imagine it was quite haunting being away from me so long. Glad to see you back on RWO. injecting more incisive commentary than an Essendon pharmacist.

[Nico]

We looked a much better side in the latter part of the season with Blakey and McInerney giving us real run off the wings along with the running Stevens. That looked an indication that the team was getting the game style. You can't underestimate natural improvement by young players.

People forget that Rampe missed from Round 12 so he makes a huge difference down back. I think we should play Heeney at full forward to give a genuine target up forward. Hark back to Round 1 against Adelaide when he took the game apart. With the return of injured senior players we have to be a much better side.

With the above there is every chance we can turn those under 2 goal defeats into wins to make significant moves up the ladder. I am positive about us sneaking into the 8. How other teams improve on their 2020 performance who knows. I don't think Carlton will improve that much, Essendon is a basket case, Hawthorn have hit bottom and North is starting again. I expect Adelaide to be a lot better. If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.

We might surprise every one.

[MattW]

We looked a much better side in the latter part of the season with Blakey and McInerney giving us real run off the wings along with the running Stevens. That looked an indication that the team was getting the game style. You can't underestimate natural improvement by young players.

People forget that Rampe missed from Round 12 so he makes a huge difference down back. I think we should play Heeney at full forward to give a genuine target up forward. Hark back to Round 1 against Adelaide when he took the game apart. With the return of injured senior players we have to be a much better side.

With the above there is every chance we can turn those under 2 goal defeats into wins to make significant moves up the ladder. I am positive about us sneaking into the 8. How other teams improve on their 2020 performance who knows. I don't think Carlton will improve that much, Essendon is a basket case, Hawthorn have hit bottom and North is starting again. I expect Adelaide to be a lot better. If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.

We might surprise every one.

This is how I see it.

[Thunder Shaker]

If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.

Our two most likely fixtures would have these general patterns:

1-1-3 pattern:
* 2 games against one of Port, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, St Kilda or Collingwood (finished top 6 due to a finals win against West Coast)
* 2 games against GWS
* 2 games against three of Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North, Adelaide
* 1 game against all other sides

1-2-2 pattern:
* 2 games against one of Port, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, St Kilda or Collingwood
* 2 games against GWS
* 2 games against one of Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Melbourne, Carlton or Fremantle
* 2 games against two of Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North, Adelaide
* 1 game against all other sides

A very favourable fixture would be like this:
* 2 games against Collingwood or possibly Geelong
* 2 games against GWS
* 2 games against Melbourne
* 2 games against Hawthorn and North

This is a 1-2-2 pattern. Because we always play GWS twice in a normal season, a 1-2-2 fixture is to be expected, otherwise we would be playing none of the other middle-six sides twice.
* Collingwood are likely sliders next year. 2018: lost GF by 5 points, 2019: lost prelim to GWS by 4 points, 2020: lost semi final to Geelong by 68 points.
* If we got Geelong, they are more difficult but we have had good games against Geelong in the last 20 years. They would be beatable.
* Melbourne: we have performed better against Melbourne than almost every other side in the last 10 years (9 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss).
* Hawthorn and North would be fairly self-explanatory choices.

In practice, a likely 1-2-2 fixture would be expected to have more difficult opposition. We would be doing well if we get doubled games against three of these sides.

We could also get a 1-3-3 fixture, but that is less likely.

[wolftone57]

If we do not move up the ladder then it would be a huge failure on behalf of the coaches. I think our list is developing very well but the coaching needs to improve to match the talent at their disposal. We are gatting far more of the ball from the stoppages then we have of recent times. The coaches are slowly trying to change our style from an attack from the FB line and HB to a clearance focus. It is working to a degree and certainly was early when Naismith was out there.

If the coaches can be a bit more imaginative, spread the forwards instead of concentrating them and move the ball quickly by both foot and hand we are a shot of being just outside the eight. But we need a lot to go right;

We need our group to develop and create sustained effort and not drop off

We need players back like Heeney, Rampe and Hewett. I would put Bud here too except lately he looks great until the competitive stuff comes around and then he does a soft tissue. It would be good to get Naismith back too but an ACL is a long recovery although they say he is tracking better this time.

The new boys and the boys drafted last year who did not get a shot need to come in and make an impact.

The coaching staff to forget about the long bomb forward. Players to lose the panic kick out of defence.

[stevoswan]

I'm with Nico on our prospects for next season.....more glass half full. There's a heap of upside but we may have to have a bit of luck with all the 'variables' going our way.

As for Buddy, I'm bullish about his prospects. By all accounts, he was absolutely firing last pre season and we were all excited. Sure he had a niggle which kept him from playing round one but there is no doubt his season ending injury later on was a result of not having access to Swans physio and conditioning staff during post round one lockdown and largely being on his own rehab wise. AFL did us no favours there refusing this access.

So he's had basically a year off with no toll at all on his body, besides the injuries. No week after week bash and crash.....he's been resting up, on a working holiday if you will. He'll get another ripping pre season in under more normal and fully supported circumstances and be cherry ripe for a fair dinkum crack next season. He'll be champing at the bit if you ask me.

[The Runner]

Parker to kick 35 goals playing mostly as a forward

[SwanSand]

This is how I see it.

Agree with above but would want some consistency with inside ball winning and maybe Hickey would help us and possibly some consistency.
And improvement in contested ball winning.

[Markwebbos]

Parker to kick 35 goals playing mostly as a forward

Maybe Parker / Heeney play 50 / 50 fwd and in the middle

[Auntie.Gerald]

The minimal or nil appearances from our key players has provided a fast track opportunity in 2021 for our youth and fringe players .....this has been earlier than expected and healthy for our squads trajectory.

Downside, have we seen the best from Bud or worse still the last ?

Can our key forward Sam Reid kick 40 plus in 2021 to help paps etc make us dangerous up front with more scoreboard hurt? Unlikely !

Can more games played from those injured in 2020 actually lead to more wins in 2021....answer yes !

How many? maybe 3 to 5 more wins vs 2020 depending on total games played next season.

Is this acceptable to be outside the top8 again? Answer no. Not for 3 years running.

If we see a massive jump in games won in 2022 and we shoot into the top4 .....will the years outside the top8 be just a distant memory? Answer ... most likely unless a flash in the pan and we shuffle sideways or backwards because we can not attract enough strike power via fair dinkum mature marque talent.

[wolftone57]

So many people are mentioning getting the injured players back and keeping them on the park. This is imperative. As for Heeney's best position, I now believe it is forward. I think he could do a Modra for many year more than Modra did. Unless, like Modra, he gets the bug to just surf his life away lol. I also believe Mills mush come into the mids. He was really good the couple of times he went in there last season. Replace him in the backs with Gould. Hewee back into the mids will make a hell of a difference. He does not need 30-35 to hurt opposition. He is such a good user, creative and elusive.

I also thing That the Kennedy/Parker partnership has to be broken up as it is too predictable. With Hewett the third it is even more predictable. So I would like to see the mids split like this as the first two groupings;

Kennedy, Rowbottom, Hewett
Mills, Parker, Florent
Alternatively these players if they are playing pinch hit in there as well; Taylor, Papley, Clarke, Ronke, Warner, Campbell, Dawson, Blakey & Gulden.

The outside mids; Stephens, Dawson, Harry, Bell, Blakey, McInerney

[The Runner]

Whenever Mills is thrown in the middle it's because there are injuries or we're desperate. I really hope in 2021 we get 3 months straight of time in there for him to see what he's got.