Expectations for 2021 season

[bloodspirit]

I've just looked at the fixture and, if I'm looking into my crystal ball, I think we actually are a sneaky chance of making the top 4. We are currently level on points with Port, Geelong & Brisbane but we have a significantly easier draw over the rest of the season than Port or Geelong. I'm optimistic we can overtake at least one of those two teams and possibly both. The problem may be coming more from below. The other team that I think is going to make up a lot of ground is Richmond. I reckon they'll go 8-2 over the rest of the season and probably overtake us, if only by percentage.

My tip is that we will finish 5th-6th. At this stage, I don't think we deserve to finish higher and, possibly, we will be able to thank the draw for not finishing 7th-8th. If that's the way it finishes up, I'll be very happy. I want us to win a final and, best case scenario, play in a prelim, perhaps after upsetting the top 4 team in our second final. And I absolutely think we can do it!

I've just realised that I overlooked that Geelong and Port both have a game in hand compared to us when I was gazing into my crystal ball. I therefore think the "sneaky chance" to make top 4 becomes a much more of a long shot. But we still need to overtake someone to claim our home final and avoid being knocked into 7th if Richmond overtake us. I will remain optimistic that we can rely on our kinder draw to overtake either Geelong or Port, whichever loses form the most. And, although it is now a little bit harder (especially if we do get bumped down to 7th), I will stand by my other expectations/hopes for the season.

[Matty10]

I think it is a realistic proposal that we could win 7 of our remaining 10. That would put us on 15 wins. Some years that would get us to the top 4 and other years not. It might depend on who we beat.

Still, I would take that if offered.

[bloodspirit]

I think it is a realistic proposal that we could win 7 of our remaining 10. That would put us on 15 wins. Some years that would get us to the top 4 and other years not. It might depend on who we beat.

Still, I would take that if offered.

Yep, 7 out of 10 is what I'm thinking too. (Hence my thinking the Tigers may overtake us if they win 8/10.) And I would take it if offered.

[SwanSand]

Yep, 7 out of 10 is what I'm thinking too. (Hence my thinking the Tigers may overtake us if they win 8/10.) And I would take it if offered.

The number of wins Is going to come down to - health of the team and if the younger swans are going to hold up the level. The whole season is a grind and some of the younger players will struggle to perform with niggles. The only reason we may not end up in top four is because we don’t have the battle hardened bodies and we may wilt under pressure in the second half as the top teams will go a notch up.

But geez we have the makings of a great team, good coaching group who understand the game and plan accordingly, and a good organisation that keeps everything together to foster on field success.

Hope we somehow get into top 4. And then anything is possible !

[The Runner]

- Warner to become our #1 tagger and become a favourite
- Gould to have gotten his body in a shape to be up for the aerobic demands of AFL, and play 18 games
- Stephens to be rated better than Serong and cover the most km in the team across 2021
- Buddy to play 12 games and be highly managed, Reid to play 5 in his final year and retire mid season
- Kennedy to play his final year
- The McCartin brothers to be stars at either end
- Rowbottom to have a seemingly down year after the return of some other big bodies in the middle
- Overall excitement over our future with the quality on the list, but consistency being the issue meaning we finish 10th

Not a lot right.. but Warner a favourite and RB (albeit injury a significant impact), one McCartin had a great year, and excited with the quality in the list are close ish

[rojo]

Great to read the posts in early June by ORB and Blood Spirit. ORB, we may not have a Bont or a Petracca but since June we have discovered that we do have - a Blakey!!! It's such a shame he is not able to play in the finals.

[TheBloods]

My forecast was ####### lousy ,

Lousy and lazy

[royboy42]

I've not been on the forum for quite some time: work is a constant state of crisis (I work in Higher Education). However, I have been getting to all the Swans home games, as well as the mighty Mosman Willoughby Swans U14 Womens' team (who train three nights a week: no wonder I have no time).

Highlight of the year for me is actually McInerney. A couple of mistakes, for sure, but stuff happens when he gets near the ball. Beautiful fast acceleration which allows him to beat a man, and then take a beat to compose himself, resulting (generally) in judicious disposals. And so competitive. I always feel excited when he trots over to take his place on the O'Reilly wing. He and Heeney are the closest we've got to gamebreakers.

Close second is Harry Cunningham. He's a fast Nick Smith, and I think uses it a bit better. I generally feel relief when the ball gets into his hands, and in particuarly when he is able to manufacture a bit of run and to break the half-back lines. McCartin, Hewitt, Rampe are a solid core, but that impactful running half-back role is still eluding us. I guess we'd hoped that Ling, O'Riordan, or even Campbell might take up that role—Dawson is terrific, but more valuable as a distributor-by-foot that running half-back.

I've also changed my mind about Lloyd. Always thought that he compiled possessions but was limited as a defender per se, and often not particularly incisive as a distributor (lacking, say, Malceski's penetration), but I think that his tackling and defensive pressure has gone up a notch this season. Or maybe I'm just noticing it more now.

Hickey is a wonder, and all too clearly shows us what we've been missing for several seasons.

I loved Amartey's game on Saturday. It was hard for him to play his first game basically as principal ruck last year, but he showed plenty against the Saints as high half-forward and chop-out ruck. Sam Reid 2.0, clunking marks on the wing.


The midfield is a fascinating work in progress. Florent played a bit more in the middle last week, with Chad on the wing, which meant that we didn't see so much of Ollie setting up play with his angled kicks. Rowbottom kind of impresses me, but he is getting relatively little game time, and I suspect is still suffering the effects of his injury. I'm pretty confident looking two or three years down the track, but worry about the expectations we are placing on very green players. Luckily in recent weeks Parker and Kennedy have lifted. Maybe Chad can get towards elite: I hope so. We need a Bont, a Petracca,

Overall, I suspect that we have been flattered by the draw: we managed to ambush the Lions and Tigers early, and rode the excitement of the new boys and a novel game plan over the first three or four weeks. Since then, as the new players were noticed (and accorded a bit more attention), and as opponents adjusted to the new game plan (the Pyke corridors, the precision 45s into the central corridor). We've not really had many remarkable wins since that first burst—the honorable exception is the fantastic effort against Melbourne. My feeling is that we have ground out wins, struggling to cash in on momentum and building the three-goal buffer that feels close, frequently. It seems that our opponents have the sense that they are in the game, and crack on a bit. I look forward to the next stage of our development, when we are able to put teams to the sword and take the pressure off ourselves.

I suspect that games such as the one that we saw last weekend are a fair indication of where we are at: bottom half of the top 8. That we found a way to win is good news, but I didn't feel like I was watching a top-end team.

Finally, I do think that the foot skills have improved remarkably. The handskills come and go. Against the Saints it felt like players were taking on the tackle, but struggling to come out of contact with good alignment to dish-off, resulting in spilled balls, or receivers under great pressure. My hope is that as Chad, Rowbottom, Mills and Florent mature, they can ride those contact bumps a bit better and have the composure to find space under pressure (the old Tom Mitchell seeing negative space trick).

We look like making the eight, and should be aspiring to a home final—and winning it. Longer odds to squeeze into the four, but not entirely beyond the realms of possibility.

So, in terms of a grading rubric:

Pass: position 5-8
Credit: secure home final
Distinction: win home final
High Distinction: top four finish/make it to Prelim
University Medal: play the last weekend of September

This is a post that has worn very well. Shame that we don't get to hear more from you ORB.
One post can talk more sense than 100 from a different poster.

[royboy42]

I've not been on the forum for quite some time: work is a constant state of crisis (I work in Higher Education). However, I have been getting to all the Swans home games, as well as the mighty Mosman Willoughby Swans U14 Womens' team (who train three nights a week: no wonder I have no time).

Highlight of the year for me is actually McInerney. A couple of mistakes, for sure, but stuff happens when he gets near the ball. Beautiful fast acceleration which allows him to beat a man, and then take a beat to compose himself, resulting (generally) in judicious disposals. And so competitive. I always feel excited when he trots over to take his place on the O'Reilly wing. He and Heeney are the closest we've got to gamebreakers.

Close second is Harry Cunningham. He's a fast Nick Smith, and I think uses it a bit better. I generally feel relief when the ball gets into his hands, and in particuarly when he is able to manufacture a bit of run and to break the half-back lines. McCartin, Hewitt, Rampe are a solid core, but that impactful running half-back role is still eluding us. I guess we'd hoped that Ling, O'Riordan, or even Campbell might take up that role—Dawson is terrific, but more valuable as a distributor-by-foot that running half-back.

I've also changed my mind about Lloyd. Always thought that he compiled possessions but was limited as a defender per se, and often not particularly incisive as a distributor (lacking, say, Malceski's penetration), but I think that his tackling and defensive pressure has gone up a notch this season. Or maybe I'm just noticing it more now.

Hickey is a wonder, and all too clearly shows us what we've been missing for several seasons.

I loved Amartey's game on Saturday. It was hard for him to play his first game basically as principal ruck last year, but he showed plenty against the Saints as high half-forward and chop-out ruck. Sam Reid 2.0, clunking marks on the wing.


The midfield is a fascinating work in progress. Florent played a bit more in the middle last week, with Chad on the wing, which meant that we didn't see so much of Ollie setting up play with his angled kicks. Rowbottom kind of impresses me, but he is getting relatively little game time, and I suspect is still suffering the effects of his injury. I'm pretty confident looking two or three years down the track, but worry about the expectations we are placing on very green players. Luckily in recent weeks Parker and Kennedy have lifted. Maybe Chad can get towards elite: I hope so. We need a Bont, a Petracca,

Overall, I suspect that we have been flattered by the draw: we managed to ambush the Lions and Tigers early, and rode the excitement of the new boys and a novel game plan over the first three or four weeks. Since then, as the new players were noticed (and accorded a bit more attention), and as opponents adjusted to the new game plan (the Pyke corridors, the precision 45s into the central corridor). We've not really had many remarkable wins since that first burst—the honorable exception is the fantastic effort against Melbourne. My feeling is that we have ground out wins, struggling to cash in on momentum and building the three-goal buffer that feels close, frequently. It seems that our opponents have the sense that they are in the game, and crack on a bit. I look forward to the next stage of our development, when we are able to put teams to the sword and take the pressure off ourselves.

I suspect that games such as the one that we saw last weekend are a fair indication of where we are at: bottom half of the top 8. That we found a way to win is good news, but I didn't feel like I was watching a top-end team.

Finally, I do think that the foot skills have improved remarkably. The handskills come and go. Against the Saints it felt like players were taking on the tackle, but struggling to come out of contact with good alignment to dish-off, resulting in spilled balls, or receivers under great pressure. My hope is that as Chad, Rowbottom, Mills and Florent mature, they can ride those contact bumps a bit better and have the composure to find space under pressure (the old Tom Mitchell seeing negative space trick).

We look like making the eight, and should be aspiring to a home final—and winning it. Longer odds to squeeze into the four, but not entirely beyond the realms of possibility.

So, in terms of a grading rubric:

Pass: position 5-8
Credit: secure home final
Distinction: win home final
High Distinction: top four finish/make it to Prelim
University Medal: play the last weekend of September

This is a post that has worn very well. Shame that we don't get to hear more from you ORB.
One post can talk more sense than 100 from a different poster.

[Thunder Shaker]

So how did my predictions stack up compared to the AFL's experts (posts 132 and 133)?

My top 8: 5/8. Wrong: Richmond, St Kilda, Carlton.
Damian Barrett: 5/8 (7 of last year's top 8. Sydney in, Collingwood out.)
Riley Beveridge: 4/8 (8 of last year's top 8.)
Sarah Black: 4/8 (8 of last year's top 8.)
Mitch Cleary: 4/8 (8 of last year's top 8.)
Cameron Noakes: 5/8 (6 of last year's top 8. Fremantle and Melbourne in, Collingwood and St Kilda out.)
Nathan Schmook: 4/8 (7 of last year's top 8. Fremantle in, Collingwood out.)
Callum Twomey: 4/8 (7 of last year's top 8. Carlton in, St Kilda out.)
Michael Whiting: 5/8 (7 of last year's top 8. GWS in, Collingwood out.)

5 out of 8 is not great, but none of the AFL's experts did better than I did.

[Faunac8]

Get nostalgic, get proud, get excited.....this gets the juices flowing for 2021!

Take the baton | Sydney Swans 2021 - YouTube

Somehow I missed this when it was first posted and have never seen it before but while scrolling through this topic it came to my attention . Thanks for the initial post Stevoswan
I was enthralled it gave me goosebumps and brought back some great memories and I thought it might be worth revisiting before we play the interlopers this weekend .
C’mon the Bloods
Take the baton | Sydney Swans 2021 - YouTube

[barry]

Even though we havent thought we were in the hunt for a top 4 spot for a few weeks now, we only missed out on 4th by percentage. All we had to do was turn one of those loses (like Hawthorn) into a win, and we would be staring down a premiership, eye to eye.

[bloodspirit]

This is a post that has worn very well. Shame that we don't get to hear more from you ORB.
One post can talk more sense than 100 from a different poster.

When O'Reilly Boy or ernie koala make their occasional contributions, I always pay attention.

[Auntie.Gerald]

pretty sure i didnt expect ahead of St Kildas 7th placing in 2020 for our Swans in in 2021

probably was erring towards 11th to 7th

I was seriusly concerned that we wouldnt be a top 4 with out another key player joining in via a trade

easy run with the draw

Ruckman that could deliver

lesser injuries

massive adjustment in style of play defence and attack with our little genius from SA

loved our development and over achievement this season

so good

[royboy42]

14th - 18th, for one simple reason: where's the elite talent? Buddy Franklin is 34, will never play a full season again. Rampe now on the wrong side of 30. And Parker is left to do it all himself in the middle with Kennedy getting on a bit. Who else is going to stand up?

Papley is an AA worthy small fwd, but if you are relying on a small fwd like that then it speaks volumes about the quality in the forward line. Lloyd is already at his peak in terms of numbers. Statistically speaking he is our best player by a mile, but kidding ourselves if we consider him elite. Mills? Unlikely, playing as a mid-sized defender, even if he is very good at it. Heeney who has never EVER shown any consistency. Why should we expect it now? His best is beyond elite - it's awesome. His worst is ordinary, and rears it's head too much.

Toilers like Hewett, Cunningham, Reid and Fox are tough and work hard but will never be elite. Young players like Ollie and Will have played more ordinary games than impressive ones, never a good sign.

So I ask where is the game-turning, match-winning, dominant-force talent going to come from? Dawson? Rowbottom? McCartin? What makes us so sure they won't just be rising stars like Heeney and Mills and Hewett who never go on to fulfill their potential?

Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.

This could have worn better. Posted late 2020.