2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[mcs]

I think there are a few more factors at play, and if you look at the lists of every other club I think you'd see the same pattern.

There are relatively fewer top quality key position players, especially forwards. It's the hardest position to play, and while it is glamorous if you make it, it also brings more scrutiny and pressure. The number of 193 cm (or thereabouts) people is lower than those half a foot shorter, and few of those are both athletic and skilled. It is thus tougher for clubs to recruit high quality key forwards (and to a lesser extent, quality key defenders).

There are also limited spots in a team for key position players. That might seem like a good thing, given my paragraph above, but it makes it much harder to retain quality depth if a club is lucky enough to find itself with AFL-standard key position players not able to get a game. If you're an up and coming midfielder who is on the cusp of senior footy, you are more likely to bide your time (for a short while) and believe that an opportunity will provide itself in one of the dozen or more non-key position. That's less likely if you're stuck in a queue behind a couple of established, high quality key defenders or forwards in your squad. So the good depth will move to a club where they think they'll get a better shot.

The second paragraph above certainly isn't exclusive to key position players, which is why it's hard for a club to retain quality depth right across the squad (and salary cap issues also come into play). But you can often get teenagers to come in and perform adequately in the non-key position roles, especially if they are surrounded by quality and experience. Even the best key position prospects almost always take two or three years before they are ready to contribute in a consistent, meaningful way.

As always Liz, well considered and interesting insights, from someone that has always has very clear and interesting views about the game we all enjoy. Your point around limited opportunities for key positions is a really important one I overlooked - and its certainly the case that we have benefitted over the years of key position players that have moved looking for opportunity (although not always at the end of the ground they expected it to occur at!).

[giant]

I feel we have too much talent in the midfield and are severely lacking elsewhere.

We currently have Stephens and Rowbottom, both excellent players, unable to get in the 22 whilst being in the best 22 players on talent.

Meanwhile we are needing to select players like McLean, Sinclair and Melican who are all serviceable, but better suited to VFL.

This is clearly not the case - our midfield depth looks poor against most clubs in the competition. For example, there aren't many teams where Stephens would be a first choice midfielder. The undefeated top teams both have a spectacular array of midfield talent, and we fall way short of their talent pool. But hopefully we'll get there soon!

[liz]

As always Liz, well considered and interesting insights, from someone that has always has very clear and interesting views about the game we all enjoy. Your point around limited opportunities for key positions is a really important one I overlooked - and its certainly the case that we have benefitted over the years of key position players that have moved looking for opportunity (although not always at the end of the ground they expected it to occur at!).

I think the pressure element, especially on key forwards, can't be underplayed. The media and fans are prone to pump up the well performed players and demolish anyone even slightly underperforming. I suspect every single one of us on here is guilty of expressing frustration when someone we hoped would be the next tall superstar based on his first handful of games turned out just to be a solid contributor.

Reid is a classic example. He has never quite developed into the star we hoped he might after his first season and a bit, but he's been a handy part of the team. He would have been even handier had he not succumbed to a few seasons of bad injury - hardly his fault, and also consistent with the fact it's a harder game to play when you're tall, not just in terms of the role, but also physically.

As I stood and watched the EFL game on Saturday afternoon, it struck me how weird it was to see Paddy McCartin and Jesse Hogan contesting against each other on an unseasonably cool April day, not inside the SCG but on a paddock outside. And then I thought of Boyd, and Patton, and all the other "great tall hopes" who have fallen by the wayside (and I confess I "prayed a little prayer" for Logan).

[mcs]

I think the pressure element, especially on key forwards, can't be underplayed. The media and fans are prone to pump up the well performed players and demolish anyone even slightly underperforming. I suspect every single one of us on here is guilty of expressing frustration when someone we hoped would be the next tall superstar based on his first handful of games turned out just to be a solid contributor.

Reid is a classic example. He has never quite developed into the star we hoped he might after his first season and a bit, but he's been a handy part of the team. He would have been even handier had he not succumbed to a few seasons of bad injury - hardly his fault, and also consistent with the fact it's a harder game to play when you're tall, not just in terms of the role, but also physically.

As I stood and watched the EFL game on Saturday afternoon, it struck me how weird it was to see Paddy McCartin and Jesse Hogan contesting against each other on an unseasonably cool April day, not inside the SCG but on a paddock outside. And then I thought of Boyd, and Patton, and all the other "great tall hopes" who have fallen by the wayside (and I confess I "prayed a little prayer" for Logan).

So very true Liz. Reid has frustrated me no end for many years, but for several years his pic was actually my avatar on here as I've always liked him as a player. Its disappointing he hasn't reached the levels we all hoped for, but he has been a good contributor to our team for a long while now (When he can stay on the park). I'm hoping he can have a really good 2021 overall after a very decent start to it - maybe it is finally his time to get a bit of luck with injuries.

I just feel sorry for Patton - from day 1, never looked comfortable in the spotlight and never got comfortable with it. Made some stupid mistakes along the way too, but the limelight never seemed to suit. We should all probably be saying little prayers for our dear Logan!

At least for Paddy McC, it is a great accomplishment just to get healthy enough to be out there playing footy again. Anything beyond that would be a massive bonus - would love to see him get back on an AFL list and carve out a decent career somewhere - but baby steps for him.

[Captain]

This is clearly not the case - our midfield depth looks poor against most clubs in the competition. For example, there aren't many teams where Stephens would be a first choice midfielder. The undefeated top teams both have a spectacular array of midfield talent, and we fall way short of their talent pool. But hopefully we'll get there soon!

I was talking about the distribution of talent on our list, including young/emerging players like Stephens and Rowbottom rather than comparing to other clubs. Even then, our midfield stacks up better to other clubs than our back line does.

Key forwards are certainly hard to find but I think we have struggled with key defenders and that's a bigger issue that the forward line. Our best key defender is undersized (and injured), our next best was a forward and then we have nothing. Aliir traded, Melican/Brand are battlers and then what?

[bloodspirit]

I agree Captain. It's an excellent point. It vindicates the concerns of those of us who wanted us to do more to address the lack of KPPs and rucks at last year's draft - although we possibly didn't have much wriggle room given we were committed to the two Academy players. Carruthers looks a promising option but don't we already have a bit of depth in that role? I would have preferred us have a shot at another tall.

The other point, that I have made before, is that we need to consider not just drafting but also trading for talls because they take longer to develop (and possibly are a more uncertain prospect). It will depend a bit on how Melican and Gould go over the course of this season.

[Auntie.Gerald]

if we cast our mind back to the development pathway for Paps, Rampe, Kennedy or even Grundy and Kirky i suppose we can widen the possibilities for Melican and Gould and Stephens / Ling etc .........cant we?

[bloodspirit]

if we cast our mind back to the development pathway for Paps, Rampe, Kennedy or even Grundy and Kirky i suppose we can widen the possibilities for Melican and Gould and Stephens / Ling etc .........cant we?

I have no idea what you are saying here. Four of those players were rookies and the other was traded in. Comparatively, Melican came as a rookie and Gould, Stephens and Ling in the ND. Are you saying we should look to rookie more players? I really can't tell.

[Auntie.Gerald]

lol.......BS it was just a general statement not a reply to your post

sometimes we can be to harsh on players and their development pathway........and maybe Melican, Gould, Ling etc will play more of a role than some people believe, despite their trajectory being a little up in the air right now

- - - Updated - - -

lol.......BS it was just a general statement not a reply to your post.

sometimes we can be to harsh on players and their development pathway........and maybe Melican, Gould, Ling etc will play more of a role than some people believe, despite their trajectory being a little up in the air right now and not so obvious.

ie when i reflect on Rampe, Grundy, Kennedy, Paps etc there was no clear evidence early on that they would grow into who they became........

[liz]

While your statement has plenty of merit, I'm not sure Papley belongs as an example. He debuted in round 1 after he was drafted. I acknowledge he was drafted as a 19yo, rather than an 18yo, but he still impressed as soon as he walked into the club.

Did we (or the club) know he'd become as good as he has? No. But that's true of any draftee, even ones who walk straight into the senior team.

[bloodspirit]

While your statement has plenty of merit, I'm not sure Papley belongs as an example. He debuted in round 1 after he was drafted. I acknowledge he was drafted as a 19yo, rather than an 18yo, but he still impressed as soon as he walked into the club.

Did we (or the club) know he'd become as good as he has? No. But that's true of any draftee, even ones who walk straight into the senior team.

Rampe was a somewhat similar case in that while we didn't know how good he was going to be, he came in and impressed straightaway. He came in as a mature age (older than Papley, he was 22 years old) and immediately impressed. He played 23 games in his first season and then, at season's end, Jude Bolton particularly bequeathed Rampe his playing number.

I think from yours and liz's comments, AG, that I now understand you to be saying that player's have all different development trajectories, which is clearly true. I think you're also suggesting we should be patient and allow these guys more time to develop? If so, I think Dawson and Hewett might have been better/more encouraging/more apposite examples of what you were trying to demonstrate within the current playing group. They both took time to play seniors, in Dawson's case he only really got going in 2019, his 4th season at the Swans.

[bloodspirit]

Are these guns gettable in the Trade Period? Meet 2021's 'pre-agents' (afl.com.au)

[Auntie.Gerald]

From memory Rampe had to play Sydney AFL then SANFL then came back as a midfield / HBF ........then bit by bit we saw the possibility of a Key Possie defender ?

All I was alluding to was that it is so tricky determining the trajectory of some players just from small samples early on.

[giant]

I was talking about the distribution of talent on our list, including young/emerging players like Stephens and Rowbottom rather than comparing to other clubs. Even then, our midfield stacks up better to other clubs than our back line does.

Key forwards are certainly hard to find but I think we have struggled with key defenders and that's a bigger issue that the forward line. Our best key defender is undersized (and injured), our next best was a forward and then we have nothing. Aliir traded, Melican/Brand are battlers and then what?

Fair cop - I'd certainly agree that we're a key defender short (which just makes the Allir trade...oh I can't be bothered going there one more time). OTOH (and at least to part of Liz's explanation) Carlton would have one of the best big men line-ups in the comp but can't get them on the park, and with midfield depth possibly even weaker than ours, they appear to be in a terrible state. Getting to that state of perfect balance like Dog/Dees/WCE/Port appear to have done takes skill, time and a lot of luck.

[Aprilbr]

Are these guns gettable in the Trade Period? Meet 2021's 'pre-agents' (afl.com.au)

I can't see Heeney or Lloyd going elsewhere unless their offers from elsewhere are extraordinary. Both also seem very content at the Swans.