2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[mcs]

This year is going to be a much more interesting trade period because there are so many possible options about what we do in terms of trading in and out players and picks. Previously it has all been about the draft and last year there were no surprises at the draft either.

I'm sort of hopeful for a very quiet draft period this year. While its clear we need another key position defender of some sort over time (If we assume Gould is still very much in development or isn't going to make it (I think the first), Rampe isn't getting any younger and young Tom needs help), I'm not sure we will have much cash to stump up to try and bring anyone in, unless of course someone leaves unexpectedly or Hewitt/Dawson were to go (I hope not in either case). I'd be quite happy for us to hold on to what we have, trying to address a couple of gaps in the draft, and hold a bit of bounty ready for trade period next year, when we should finally have a bit of flexibility in the cap and ability to maybe chase a big fish to try and 'round out' the squad.

Going to be really fascinating to see what they do!

[bloodspirit]

I'm sort of hopeful for a very quiet draft period this year. While its clear we need another key position defender of some sort over time (If we assume Gould is still very much in development or isn't going to make it (I think the first), Rampe isn't getting any younger and young Tom needs help), I'm not sure we will have much cash to stump up to try and bring anyone in, unless of course someone leaves unexpectedly or Hewitt/Dawson were to go (I hope not in either case). I'd be quite happy for us to hold on to what we have, trying to address a couple of gaps in the draft, and hold a bit of bounty ready for trade period next year, when we should finally have a bit of flexibility in the cap and ability to maybe chase a big fish to try and 'round out' the squad.

Going to be really fascinating to see what they do!

Agreed.

[111431]

I'm sort of hopeful for a very quiet draft period this year. While its clear we need another key position defender of some sort over time (If we assume Gould is still very much in development or isn't going to make it (I think the first), Rampe isn't getting any younger and young Tom needs help), I'm not sure we will have much cash to stump up to try and bring anyone in, unless of course someone leaves unexpectedly or Hewitt/Dawson were to go (I hope not in either case). I'd be quite happy for us to hold on to what we have, trying to address a couple of gaps in the draft, and hold a bit of bounty ready for trade period next year, when we should finally have a bit of flexibility in the cap and ability to maybe chase a big fish to try and 'round out' the squad.

Going to be really fascinating to see what they do!

We definitely need cover for Ramps. I have watched the last two games and his decision making and clean hands are rapidly diminishing. The end for him may be coming quicker than we think

[AB Swannie]

We have 4 midfielders who were not in the side this week that I would expect to be regulars in the side next year: Warner, Rowbottom, Campbell and Stephens. So who do they replace in the current side? Kennedy will be one, if not next year then in 2023. Bell is now amongst the group of players fighting for final spots in the 22. So who is next? Gulden? McInerney? I don't think so. And I don't want to hear that Rowbottom is getting sidelined either. He's developing into a fine player and should be at least the equal of Hewett at the same age, but is on a much lower salary. So if it means a swap of Rowbottom in and Hewett out for next year, I would take it, even if I think Hewett can do a better job this year.

The problem is that you can only fit 22 (or 23 ) into your best 22.

I think Ludwig & Bloodspirit are largely making the same argument regarding limited playing spots. With the limited playing spots, there is an opportunity cost for playing/paying one player (Hewett) over others (Stephens, RB, et al). My question is - how often does a team actually play their best 22? I would say it is extremely rare. Therefore, list management would require at least a best 26. If it so happens that absolutely everyone is available for multiple games in a row, then the club has the ability to employ some rotation and "management."

In summary, I don't completely agree that we need to consider letting Hewett go in order to keep other midfielders.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

We definitely need cover for Ramps. I have watched the last two games and his decision making and clean hands are rapidly diminishing. The end for him may be coming quicker than we think

It seems to happen with Swans who aren't quite big enough, but still play in a key defensive post. Dennis Carrol retired mid season, Leo went into decline, Francis Jackson was nursed to his 100th game.

[Markwebbos]

How do people feel about Darcy Fogarty, on the outer at the Crows?

I’m sure we could find a player or pick to send their way

[bloodspirit]

I agree Ramps (my favourite player) has been down on form. I'm not ready to concede he's coming to the end. I hope it's just a dip in form or hangover from an injury.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I think Rampe's drop in form may be more to do with the rule changes initiated by the AFL this year.

[Southern Swan15]

Don't think he is the player we really need atm.

How do people feel about Darcy Fogarty, on the outer at the Crows?

I’m sure we could find a player or pick to send their way

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[gloveski]

How do people feel about Darcy Fogarty, on the outer at the Crows?

I’m sure we could find a player or pick to send their way

No from me , he’s undersized key forward that hasn’t really showers a lot . We have McLean , McDonald currently not getting a game in our forward line and Reid working his way back from injury.


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[Ludwig]

I think Ludwig & Bloodspirit are largely making the same argument regarding limited playing spots. With the limited playing spots, there is an opportunity cost for playing/paying one player (Hewett) over others (Stephens, RB, et al). My question is - how often does a team actually play their best 22? I would say it is extremely rare. Therefore, list management would require at least a best 26. If it so happens that absolutely everyone is available for multiple games in a row, then the club has the ability to employ some rotation and "management."

In summary, I don't completely agree that we need to consider letting Hewett go in order to keep other midfielders.

Of course we have to take depth into consideration, and I think we do have the depth. There are so many layers to the list management puzzle to consider. We do know what happens when things go wrong, like with Collingwood's salary cap burst last year. We don't want that to happen. We also know how restricted we have been in the trade period because of the tight cap space due to the Franklin contract, and there are others on that list as well. We don't want to paint ourselves into a corner.

1. We don't want to lose good players because they lack opportunity at AFL level. Luke Beveridge is big on player rotation. We will see how that one plays out this post-season. Longmire prefers continuity, when possible.
2. How many quality non starters can we keep on the payroll. They are going to want to get paid what a club bidding for their services is willing to pay.
3. The situation is dynamic, and we have to recognise how things are flowing. We are currently in a slow outflow and normal inflow. What is meant by that is there are not many players nearing retirement compared to the number of players coming in through the draft. We average more than 3 AFL quality players per draft. We have no one important leaving the club this year and perhaps only JPK and Franklin next year. After that, it's still a trickle for a few more years. Yet we will probably draft players at least in our first 2 rounds this year, plus we might pick up someone like Paddy McCartin. So 3+ in, no one out, except for Joe Naismith, who hasn't been in playing form for years.
4. It's not just the players ready for a senior spot now, but ones that are up and coming and look like good prospects, like Carrruthers. Sheather and perhaps Gould and Ling as well. Maybe not all, but some will be deserving of a spot in an AFL side.

It's a matter of recognising where we are in the player development cycle and plan correctly for the more likely outcomes. It's better to get the most value from the list while we can. Certainly better than losing players because we didn't think ahead and got caught out, like Collingwood.

Sometimes we are forced to make unpleasant decisions. That's what happens in systems with constraints.

[Goal Sneak]

I think Rampe's drop in form may be more to do with the rule changes initiated by the AFL this year.

I had the same thought when his form was mentioned. The form of McCartin (prior to the dogs game) would not have helped, not to mention the loss of Aliir Aliir. Rampe's been unbelievably consistent down back for so long now it's odd to see him struggle.

I'm backing him to come good, even his poor form is still pretty good.

[MattW]

Why would you change Dawson's role when he doing so well in his current role? That is, the everywhere man ruck rover. They have found his niche so I look forward to even more improvement from him.

We have a number of fringe players on the list who are not going to get a game this year. Surely delisting them will free up cash for the likes of Dawson and Hewett to get a pay rise.

Moving Hewett back to his tagger role has had a big impact on our structure. Playing him off half back was always a mistake. I think on form we must be taking him into next year if we are serious about our development.

Agree with all of that.

Hewett is the best in the tagger role at the club.

[AB Swannie]

Of course we have to take depth into consideration, and I think we do have the depth. There are so many layers to the list management puzzle to consider. We do know what happens when things go wrong, like with Collingwood's salary cap burst last year. We don't want that to happen. We also know how restricted we have been in the trade period because of the tight cap space due to the Franklin contract, and there are others on that list as well. We don't want to paint ourselves into a corner.

1. We don't want to lose good players because they lack opportunity at AFL level. Luke Beveridge is big on player rotation. We will see how that one plays out this post-season. Longmire prefers continuity, when possible.
2. How many quality non starters can we keep on the payroll. They are going to want to get paid what a club bidding for their services is willing to pay.
3. The situation is dynamic, and we have to recognise how things are flowing. We are currently in a slow outflow and normal inflow. What is meant by that is there are not many players nearing retirement compared to the number of players coming in through the draft. We average more than 3 AFL quality players per draft. We have no one important leaving the club this year and perhaps only JPK and Franklin next year. After that, it's still a trickle for a few more years. Yet we will probably draft players at least in our first 2 rounds this year, plus we might pick up someone like Paddy McCartin. So 3+ in, no one out, except for Joe Naismith, who hasn't been in playing form for years.
4. It's not just the players ready for a senior spot now, but ones that are up and coming and look like good prospects, like Carrruthers. Sheather and perhaps Gould and Ling as well. Maybe not all, but some will be deserving of a spot in an AFL side.

It's a matter of recognising where we are in the player development cycle and plan correctly for the more likely outcomes. It's better to get the most value from the list while we can. Certainly better than losing players because we didn't think ahead and got caught out, like Collingwood.

Sometimes we are forced to make unpleasant decisions. That's what happens in systems with constraints.

It's a good discussion and without knowing all the ins and outs of the contracts, it will likely be one we can't really understand. A few of my thoughts:

1. We rarely lose good players due to a lack of opportunity. Tim Membrey aside, I can't think of too many.
2. Who are the current non-starters who are demanding big offers from elsewhere? Stephens maybe being courted as a high draft pick playing reserves.
3. I don't think we are in a slow outflow position. If reports are correct, we have 20+ players out of contract which means we have heaps of room to make decisions. I can see at least four of Sinclair, Ling, Gray, Ronke, O'Riordan, Clarke, and Brand being delisted. Naismith may be retired. We could actually have a large turnover this year.
4. Money is the thing we don't know about. However, some assumptions can be made that Reid, Parker, and Buddy should be on less money next year than this year (if Reid & parker are re-signed).

Unless Hewett is being offered a big, long contract like Aliir was last year, there should be no reason for us to lose him.

[MattW]

Centre square ball ups were a huge issue for us yesterday but not sure if they have been a big problem all season. One more nimble player in there would have been helpful yesterday. Needs to be addressed. Outside of those ball ups, Kennedy more than held his own and is still an inside beast and inspiration, as is Parker.

Yes, I think yesterday's clearance numbers may be related to Rowbottom's non-selection.

James is easily our top tackler this year. Those tackling skills tend to be applied in close on opponents seeking to clear the ball. I think he needs to come back in for that reason.

Here is a screenshot of our average tackle numbers from the AFL site.

He's also fourth best in average centre clearances and fifth best in average total clearances, also per the AFL site.

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