Are we now a genuine Premiership threat?

[Faunac8]

Martin Pegan on the AFL site seems to think so. I know we go under the radar a bit (with the media), but it's nice to have an overwhelmingly positive article on our style of play. Credit to the coaches and players for making it happen.

His finishing summary is very positive
But with few injuries, a relatively young group on the rise and a game style full of substance, the resurgent Swans are now a genuine contender to claim one of the most astonishing premierships.

[Markwebbos]

The last 4 weeks we’ve really got our ball movement going again.

Essendon were the first side that really shut us down after our wild start to the season.

I think we’ve got the players and game plan for that NOT to happen again.

[barry]

Isn't it just dandy to be back in finals again.

[Maltopia]

Here's the ladder and run-in.

- Demons: Suns, Eagles, Crows, Cats
- Port: GWS, Crows, Carlton, Bulldogs
- Brisbane: Hawthorn, Fremantle, Collingwood, Eagles
- Swans: Essendon, St Kilda, North, Suns.

If we win all four, we need two of the following three scenarios to occur:
- Demons to lose two;
- Port to lose one;
- Brisbane to lose one.

Odds are against us, but it's possible.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

Slight clarification.

We could have both Melbourne and Brisbane have a draw instead of losing one of their games. There have already been two draws this season, so who knows?

For Melbourne to lose and draw, we would also need to overtake them on percentage which won't be easy given the 5.4 difference.

Also, if Port Adelaide only lose one more than us, it will still depend on percentage - if they get three big wins plus a narrow loss and we have four narrow wins, we will still be squeezed out - due to the rubbish free kicks against us that resulted in gimme goals instead of a ball-up or a rebound.

[barry]

I think we should make it to 4th now.

We have 3 winnable games left, all playing teams below us.
Port have a game against Western Bulldogs which they should lose.

So, we will stay above Brisbane, no matter what Brisbane do, if we win our last 3 games as expected.
and, providing Western bulldogs beat Port by about 20 points or so, or we put a few teams to the sword in the next 3 weeks, we should catchup a game and % on Port.

[Agent 86]

I think we should make it to 4th now.

We have 3 winnable games left, all playing teams below us.
Port have a game against Western Bulldogs which they should lose.

So, we will stay above Brisbane, no matter what Brisbane do, if we win our last 3 games as expected.
and, providing Western bulldogs beat Port by about 20 points or so, or we put a few teams to the sword in the next 3 weeks, we should catchup a game and % on Port.

…the key phrase here being "as expected".

We've had a tough last 5 or 6 weeks and can have a tendency to drop the bundle against teams where we're clear favourites.

However, the mere fact we're entertaining these thoughts is a wonderful thing!

[barry]

…the key phrase here being "as expected".

We've had a tough last 5 or 6 weeks and can have a tendency to drop the bundle against teams where we're clear favourites.

However, the mere fact we're entertaining these thoughts is a wonderful thing!

Sure. But the laws of probability we are a 50/50 chance to get 4th spot in contention with Port who are also 50/50.

Port have the harder draw, but they have the advantage that destiny is in their hands. We rely on them dropping a game.
The % change of W-W-W (us) and W-W-L (them) means our percentages would likely be very very similar by the end of the H&A.

[111431]

We have to play our bogey side being Gold Coast who seem to do awful things to us

[Hotpotato]

We have to play our bogey side being Gold Coast who seem to do awful things to us

The team have a much different mindset now . They will see off Gold Coast .

[Kafka's Ghost]

The team have a much different mindset now . They will see off Gold Coast .

GC might also be in a different mindset by round 23; looking forward to Mad Monday and hitting the beach, with a bit of luck.

[707]

I'm still shaking my head as to how we lost (and badly) against Hawks and Gold Coast.

The latter were absolute witches hats against the Dees and look like they've put the cue in the rack for this year. Lots of them already thinking about their fun post season activities and, worryingly for the AFL, finding time to chat to their managers about a GC exit strategy.

We need three solid to blowout wins to hopefully sneak a top four berth and reset.

[Maltopia]

Melbourne could still fall below us.

They have West Coast at Optus Stadium this week and the Eagles will be keen to prove their worth and always play much better at home.

They also have to play Geelong at Kardinia Park in round 23.

[Hotpotato]

In this vein of form is there a real danger H&A game remaining ?
Mate of mine reckons Norfs..

[Matty10]

Melbourne could still fall below us.

People keep overlooking this. My prediction that we would finish third on the ladder is predicted on Melbourne losing two of their next three (which I think is a distinct possibility).

There is no certainty in football, but the suggestion that it is simply a two horse race between Port and the Swans for fourth place (while the top three are set) is ridiculous.

[Matty10]

In this vein of form is there a real danger H&A game remaining ?
Mate of mine reckons Norfs..

Considering the form of North, the fact that our earlier game against the Saints was close and we got belted by GC, I would say they are all danger games. I don’t know if one is more of a danger than another, but the Kangaroos midfield have been playing quite well - although losing a quality player like Cunnington will likely hurt them.

Nevertheless, we should go in with the confidence that we can beat all three, but only if we play well. If we are off, we will lose the unexpected (and our shot at top four).