Are we now a genuine Premiership threat?

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  • TheBloods
    Suspended by the MRP
    • Feb 2020
    • 2047

    No

    Comment

    • Vonsteinman
      Warming the Bench
      • Sep 2008
      • 366

      Originally posted by TheBloods
      No
      ????????????

      Comment

      • Ludwig
        Veterans List
        • Apr 2007
        • 9359

        The top 6 looks done, then we have a big scramble for the last 2 finals spots.

        We may have to win all our remaining games to get a top 4 spot, but think we will be favourites in all the games.

        Comment

        • mcs
          Travelling Swannie!!
          • Jul 2007
          • 8161

          Originally posted by TheBloods
          No
          Forever the optimist

          Though I do agree, even after another great performance today.

          We should finish 6th at worst from here however, which would be a great outcome. Though with the way things are headed in Sydney, even then a home final may not be guaranteed.
          "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

          Comment

          • TheBloods
            Suspended by the MRP
            • Feb 2020
            • 2047

            Originally posted by mcs
            Forever the optimist

            Though I do agree, even after another great performance today.

            We should finish 6th at worst from here however, which would be a great outcome. Though with the way things are headed in Sydney, even then a home final may not be guaranteed.

            It is laughable and i hope the team does not have confidence they will win the premiership . They need to keep the hunger

            Confidence kills hunger and becomes complacency

            look at our team and i think Chad is an upgrade on Bell and Reid an upgrade on Amartey and i reckon thats our best 22 out there . If we time it perfect we could have them all in the team at the right time - rd 23 going into finals

            FIngers crossed

            Comment

            • Industrial Fan
              Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
              • Aug 2006
              • 3317

              Belief is not the same as confidence

              We can win the flag this year. A long shot. But we’re a threat
              He ate more cheese, than time allowed

              Comment

              • dejavoodoo44
                Veterans List
                • Apr 2015
                • 8581

                Originally posted by mcs
                Forever the optimist

                Though I do agree, even after another great performance today.

                We should finish 6th at worst from here however, which would be a great outcome. Though with the way things are headed in Sydney, even then a home final may not be guaranteed.
                Maybe a rerun of West Coast at Geelong?

                Comment

                • bodgie
                  Regular in the Side
                  • Jul 2007
                  • 501

                  It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!

                  Comment

                  • Vonsteinman
                    Warming the Bench
                    • Sep 2008
                    • 366

                    Originally posted by Industrial Fan
                    Belief is not the same as confidence

                    We can win the flag this year. A long shot. But we’re a threat
                    Precisely, the truth is in the thread title.

                    Comment

                    • Aprilbr
                      Senior Player
                      • Oct 2016
                      • 1803

                      Originally posted by bodgie
                      It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!
                      I was at the game today behind the goals with the cheer squad and it was like a home game with all of the fabulous support from the Swans loyalists from the South days. We have by far the biggest away support of any non-Victorian Club.

                      Comment

                      • Agent 86
                        Senior Player
                        • Aug 2004
                        • 1686

                        Originally posted by Industrial Fan
                        Belief is not the same as confidence

                        We can win the flag this year. A long shot. But we’re a threat
                        Correct. We’ve got belief we can beat any team on any day if we show up. On the other hand, we’ve shown that we can be beaten by any team if we don’t show up. Not looking forward to the North game.

                        In reality, I don’t think we’re quite in the serious contender category just yet, but I didn’t think we’d win both the last 2 weeks fairly convincingly.

                        Comment

                        • goswannies
                          Senior Player
                          • Sep 2007
                          • 3049

                          Originally posted by bodgie
                          It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!
                          Given our SCG record, it might actually be a blessing.

                          And barring covid shutting down Victoria again, the GF will be at the MCG until at least 2058. So I guess either wish for a health disaster for an entire state or accept that the Grand Final has a home for the next quarter of a century.

                          Comment

                          • Nico
                            Veterans List
                            • Jan 2003
                            • 11337

                            Originally posted by bodgie
                            It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!
                            We play very well at Marvel Stadium. Have a good record there. Be happy to play the GF there.
                            http://www.nostalgiamusic.co.uk/secu...res/srh806.jpg

                            Comment

                            • MattW
                              Veterans List
                              • May 2011
                              • 4212

                              Yes.

                              Comment

                              • Thunder Shaker
                                Aut vincere aut mori
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 4187

                                Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
                                My assessment of the remainder of the season.

                                Sydney's remaining games:
                                Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

                                Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
                                Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

                                Games expected to win (4/4):
                                Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

                                Games where a win is likely (3/4):
                                Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

                                Games with even chances (2/4):
                                Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

                                Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
                                Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

                                Total expected premiership points:
                                From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).
                                It's time to revisit this to see how well my predictions have stood up so far. I will give the actual results as well as a running total of the difference between predicted premiership points and actual premiership points.

                                Collingwood (4) WIN (30 points). +0
                                Fremantle (2) LOSS (2 points). -2
                                Carlton (3) WIN (22 points). -1
                                St Kilda (2) WIN (9 points). +1
                                Hawthorn (4) LOSS (38 points) -3
                                (BYE)
                                Port Adelaide (1) LOSS (10 points) -4
                                West Coast (3) WIN (92 points) -3
                                Western Bulldogs (1) WIN (13 points). +0

                                The running total is currently zero, so the predictions have been fairly accurate overall. The individual match results are not as good, though they balance out: the unexpected Hawthorn loss is balanced by the unexpected win over the Dogs.

                                It's also interesting seeing how our form has improved after the bye.

                                The remaining games are: GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2). These add up to 16, so four more wins are predicted out of these last six games. That would give us 14 wins. Win all six, and we would be in with a good chance of a top four finish.
                                "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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