Rd 16 v Essendon Bombers @ MCG

[Roadrunner]

More than a disappointing loss in the context of the season we started the year 5-1 and fumbled our way to 9-6.

Barely hanging on to 8th if Richmond win today have Bulldogs and Freo in the next 2 weeks.

Apart from Warner and Blakey who else has shown improvement from 2021? really underwhelming season so far will be disastrous to not make finals from the position we were in.

Bit too negative mate. We’ve played some exciting footy but have mental lapses that allow our opponents too many chances. Our coaches and our players need to work on this very hard if we are to avoid losing to teams that we can and should beat. Of course the opposition will try to wrestle momentum back- you can’t expect to keep a team down for 120 minutes. The key is to stop them piling on quick goals, and this is a mental thing.

[Ludwig]

I'm more puzzled than angry about how we are losing games. I don't have any kind of expertise in the conditioning and training of a team of professional athletes, but I know that there are people who profess to have this kind of expertise, and some of them are working at the Swans. I also know that we aren't the only club suffering from this sort of experience.

None of this quells the frustration from watching the Swans go through these massive swings in the way we play the game. I don't understand why we can't smooth out our performances from game to game as well as within games. Is it part of the plan to go from a high pressure game to a low pressure game, instead of playing medium pressure for the entire game? Do we have any control over this? Is it coachable?

It would make it a lot easier to deal with if only I could comprehend what's going on with the players and coaches when these things happen; and how we prepare for this during the week.

[Agent 86]

Bit too negative mate. We’ve played some exciting footy but have mental lapses that allow our opponents too many chances. Our coaches and our players need to work on this very hard if we are to avoid losing to teams that we can and should beat. Of course the opposition will try to wrestle momentum back- you can’t expect to keep a team down for 120 minutes. The key is to stop them piling on quick goals, and this is a mental thing.

Maybe it’s negative. Maybe it’s a statement of the bleeding obvious. I dunno…

We’ve had good wins against teams 1 & 2 but poor losses against 4 of the also-rans.

I won some money by betting on us vs Melbourne as the odds were over. I was tempted to have a wager on the Bombers as I could see this loss coming. Couldn’t do it.

We have a tendency to play at the level of our opponents & it’s annoying as hell. Every team in the comp will turn up knowing they are a chance. Yes, even Norf - who nearly beat us.

We’ve blown some big chances this year. Cough cough.

[joeykanga]

Yep, that's the way it goes. The team has a lousy loss and you're allowed to go off at them, and if they play well and have a
great win then you're allowed to tout them as one of the new flag favourites. It's two way street. Papley was pretty useless
yesterday and should be able to kick further than me, as I'm more than twice his age. Anyway, he'll come back as he is a good
play, and that is what good player do.
On a personal note, the team has now lost the last five times we've gone to the MCG to see them. I think it's better if I stay away
from the ground when the Swans are on it from now on.

Sorry Ktigers maybe just stay away for one game although if they do win the next one then how do we arrange for when your comeback will be.
Do we have to have a loss without you there to welcome you back.

Don't stay away it'll be like 5 odds have rolled and the odds are it will be an even next time. Besides I like your comments.

[joeykanga]

Just a silly knee jerk reaction to a disappointing loss. You'll get over it...then you can revisit that ridiculous comment.

I agree..it's actually a really even comp and lots of teams are bouncing back from losses the previous week.
Essendon should not be where they are on the ladder..and it seems like they're finally playing some decent football. they did beat St. Kilda and I expect a few more wins from them.
Look at St Kilda the last few weeks and then that really impressive gutsy win against Carlton.
I also think we contested well but it was one of those games where the ball got out from a contest and luckily fell into their hands..that happens with the funny shaped AFL ball and sometimes those bounces go our way..there's a bit of luck to a contest at times in which the direction pops out
Buddy missed two very gettable marks and we shot so poorly. We learn from these games more than we learn from a win not that I want to lose.
I'm going to go the match on Saturday expecting a thriller and hopefully the end result is ours

[Nico]

Maybe there is something in how much TOG players have. Will Hayward had 89% TOG and had 8 kicks, no handpasses, 6 marks, That's not much value for money. So if he kicked the ball from his 6 marks he found the ball only twice more. Ollie had 8 kicks and no handballs and 86% TOG. On SEN they had a close look at us and we had 7 players with under 10 possessions, Essendon 2. They said that can't continue and they too questioned our inconsistency. Too many players are not getting to the contest. They had the ball 82 times more than us. Essendons possessions for the quarters were 92, 90, 94,104. Ours were 94, 74, 71, 59.

In the 3rd quarter we had 23 less possessions but outscored them 2 goals 8 to 2 goals 1. Comment has been made about poor kicking for goal but those 3rd stats tell me we were under pressure in the forward line that caused poor goal kicking.

Efficiency: Papley 56%, Blakey 67%, Rowbottom 64%, Stephens 67%, Gulden 57%, Reid 57%, Campbell 33%. So combine this with 82 less possessions and we simply kept them in the game.

Anyone got any thoughts on this stuff.

[giant]

More than a disappointing loss in the context of the season we started the year 5-1 and fumbled our way to 9-6.

Barely hanging on to 8th if Richmond win today have Bulldogs and Freo in the next 2 weeks.

Apart from Warner and Blakey who else has shown improvement from 2021? really underwhelming season so far will be disastrous to not make finals from the position we were in.

Spot on. As I've said elsewhere, that result has the real potential consequence to see us miss the finals in a season when being in the top 4 could have led to who knows what and with no guarantees on what happens next year. It was significantly more than "a disappointing loss".

[Ludwig]

Maybe there is something in how much TOG players have. Will Hayward had 89% TOG and had 8 kicks, no handpasses, 6 marks, That's not much value for money. So if he kicked the ball from his 6 marks he found the ball only twice more. Ollie had 8 kicks and no handballs and 86% TOG. On SEN they had a close look at us and we had 7 players with under 10 possessions, Essendon 2. They said that can't continue and they too questioned our inconsistency. Too many players are not getting to the contest. They had the ball 82 times more than us. Essendons possessions for the quarters were 92, 90, 94,104. Ours were 94, 74, 71, 59.

In the 3rd quarter we had 23 less possessions but outscored them 2 goals 8 to 2 goals 1. Comment has been made about poor kicking for goal but those 3rd stats tell me we were under pressure in the forward line that caused poor goal kicking.

Efficiency: Papley 56%, Blakey 67%, Rowbottom 64%, Stephens 67%, Gulden 57%, Reid 57%, Campbell 33%. So combine this with 82 less possessions and we simply kept them in the game.

Anyone got any thoughts on this stuff.

Some interesting stuff there. I don't know what to make of the individual player stats, because some of the bad ones this game were amongst the best last week.

The possession count by quarter is noteworthy. It appears to be a fitness issue. We faded out as the game went on while Essendon got stronger. But it's hard to know why this should be the case.

[Blood Fever]

I agree..it's actually a really even comp and lots of teams are bouncing back from losses the previous week.
Essendon should not be where they are on the ladder..and it seems like they're finally playing some decent football. they did beat St. Kilda and I expect a few more wins from them.
Look at St Kilda the last few weeks and then that really impressive gutsy win against Carlton.
I also think we contested well but it was one of those games where the ball got out from a contest and luckily fell into their hands..that happens with the funny shaped AFL ball and sometimes those bounces go our way..there's a bit of luck to a contest at times in which the direction pops out
Buddy missed two very gettable marks and we shot so poorly. We learn from these games more than we learn from a win not that I want to lose.
I'm going to go the match on Saturday expecting a thriller and hopefully the end result is ours

+1. With the Eagles getting their players back, apart from North, there are danger games every week for all clubs.

[Matty10]

Another concern (but perhaps connected) is that 4 of 6 losses this year have been against teams in the bottom half of the ladder.

It all depends how you frame it. We have only lost one game to the bottom six teams, and that was against Essendon (a finalist from last year, who we also beat earlier in the year). The middle six is perhaps more of a problem, where we have lost to three of the five (we are the sixth team), but you would expect them to be tougher opponents.

Consistency is an issue, but that might apply to all AFL teams to an extent. Everyone has dropped unexpected games this season.

[Mel_C]

I was doing a job on AIRTASKER for a bloke who plays rugby Sevens for Australia and I was wearing a Swannies cap.

He goes “Have you heard of Nick Davis, he’s our kicking coach .”

Yeah, what’s he doing with you guys, we need him more than you do !

I was wondering if he was still with us because I hadn't heard anything about him this year. Last year I think he was involved with the Academies.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Some interesting stuff there. I don't know what to make of the individual player stats, because some of the bad ones this game were amongst the best last week.

The possession count by quarter is noteworthy. It appears to be a fitness issue. We faded out as the game went on while Essendon got stronger. But it's hard to know why this should be the case.

It’s also contrary to what we saw in the comebacks vs Richmond and Melbourne, so who knows. We’re a weird team this year.

I tend to think our bad patches within games are overall a function of an inexperienced midfield, where only Mills and Parker are over 21 of our regulars in there. But it’s gotta be more than that.

[Nico]

It’s also contrary to what we saw in the comebacks vs Richmond and Melbourne, so who knows. We’re a weird team this year.

I tend to think our bad patches within games are overall a function of an inexperienced midfield, where only Mills and Parker are over 21 of our regulars in there. But it’s gotta be more than that.

Why don't we put Clarke on the ball? He racks up possessions and he is hard at it. Yep, he can be haphazard with his disposal but at least he goes where the footy is at.

[The Big Cat]

. In the 3rd quarter we had 23 less possessions but outscored them 2 goals 8 to 2 goals 1. Comment has been made about poor kicking for goal but those 3rd stats tell me we were under pressure in the forward line that caused poor goal kicking.

I sat behind the goals at the city end. As you say, in the third quarter we dominated the inside 50's with the ball living in there for long periods of time after each entry. But pressure had nothing to do with most of those missed shots at goal, although a few were rushed. Heeney missed a sitter, Papley missed a sitter set up by the Budwar, Hayward missed from 35 dead in front, Campbell missed on the run from about 40 with no pressure, Warner missed one, Franklin missed one he'd normally get.

Another costly moment came when a rushed Bomber kick out of deep defence went straight to Paddy McCartin around 60 from our goal and he dropped his only mark for the day and the ball went straight up the other end for a Don's goal.

Champion Data says going on the expected outcome of shots taken in the game (based on ground position and the accuracy history of those who took them) we win by about 5 goals. As well as our botching of our goal kicking, Essendon's final score was well above that expected from the shots they took. Or to put it another way, abnormal events transpired to overturn a statistically straight forward outcome. Reminded me of our win over Geelong earlier in the year. They won every stat on the game and yet we won comfortably.

[Blood Fever]

I sat behind the goals at the city end. As you say, in the third quarter we dominated the inside 50's with the ball living in there for long periods of time after each entry. But pressure had nothing to do with most of those missed shots at goal, although a few were rushed. Heeney missed a sitter, Papley missed a sitter set up by the Budwar, Hayward missed from 35 dead in front, Campbell missed on the run from about 40 with no pressure, Warner missed one, Franklin missed one he'd normally get.

Another costly moment came when a rushed Bomber kick out of deep defence went straight to Paddy McCartin around 60 from our goal and he dropped his only mark for the day and the ball went straight up the other end for a Don's goal.

Champion Data says going on the expected outcome of shots taken in the game (based on ground position and the accuracy history of those who took them) we win by about 5 goals. As well as our botching of our goal kicking, Essendon's final score was well above that expected from the shots they took. Or to put it another way, abnormal events transpired to overturn a statistically straight forward outcome. Reminded me of our win over Geelong earlier in the year. They won every stat on the game and yet we won comfortably.

Rational post. Game versus Geelong a fair comparison. Game also reminded me of our 2012 GF win where Hawks missed a number of fairly easy shots in the last quarter and the score was 14.7 to 11.15. We more than had our chances and the Bombers hardly missed.