Round 19: the other games. And then there were...err...14?

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  • dejavoodoo44
    Veterans List
    • Apr 2015
    • 8721

    General footy chat Round 19: the other games. And then there were...err...14?

    After the surprise lost by Richmond and consecutive wins by Essendon and Hawthorn, I decided to consult a ladder predictor, to see if I could construct situations where Essendon or Hawthorn make the eight. It's actually possible. Although, it does require some heroic assumptions; like one of those teams winning out, and teams like North and West Coast, beating teams like St Kilda and Gold Coast, but it can be done. Of course, I wouldn't want to bet on Hawthorn making it, even using the money of an affluent Hawthorn friend of mine, but hey, mathematical possibility!

    Another thing that has to happen, is for Richmond to lose games like tonight's clash with Fremantle. Which is a definite chance, but I'd prefer not to happen, as a Fremantle loss should mean that we jump over them, after beating Adelaide on Saturday arvo.

    The other game that takes place while we're playing Adelaide, is North v Hawthorn. I wonder how much a thrashing we would have to be getting, in order for me to tune into to that game? I'm not even sure if many North or Hawthorn fans would be that interested? And there certainly won't be many turning up, as it's taking place in chilly Hobart. Which I guess is a chance for the Tasmanian public, to indicate that they don't want either team to be relocated?

    The next two matches are Port v Geelong and Brisbane v Gold Coast. And despite what I said earlier about the chances of Hawthorn and Essendon, these do seem to be must win matches for both Port and Gold Coast.

    The other Saturday night match is Western Bulldogs and Melbourne. With Beveridge more or less coming out in support of staging, it will be interesting to see how Weightman performs. If he feels truly appreciated by Bevo's sentiments, he might come out in leotards and with his own coterie of card carrying judges? Ooh, that effort is a 9.5 from the Romanian judge.

    The first Sunday match sees a Carlton side without George Hewett, take on a GWS side without all those players that they decided to manage after their recent insipid form. Can't really see GWS doing us a favour.

    In the next game, I hope a strangely resurgent Essendon do us a favour by beating Collingwood. I mean, I'm a cyclist, I don't want to see magpies up and about in September.

    The final game is West Coast hosting St Kilda. Which is one of those games, where an upset is more or less necessary for Essendon to keep the dream alive. Of course, now that I think of it, Essendon winning all their remaining games, only to end up ninth, would be my preferred outcome. Especially if they then start 2023 in the sort of dire form, that effectively kills off a brand new dream.
  • KTigers
    Senior Player
    • Apr 2012
    • 2499

    #2
    Let's just take it one game at a time.

    Comment

    • dejavoodoo44
      Veterans List
      • Apr 2015
      • 8721

      #3
      Originally posted by KTigers
      Let's just take it one game at a time.
      Yes, but I just wanted to take it to the next level.

      Comment

      • liz
        Veteran
        Site Admin
        • Jan 2003
        • 16786

        #4
        Originally posted by dejavoodoo44
        Yes, but I just wanted to take it to the next level.
        That would be very pleasing.

        Comment

        • Sandridge
          Outer wing, Lake Oval
          • Apr 2010
          • 2092

          #5
          Not sure what to think about games like tonight’s. With 5 “winnable” games left for us, we’re 2 games and percentage ahead of 9th. Do we hope that the teams above us lose so that our chances of top 4 are enhanced or do we hope that the teams below us lose in case we have some hiccups in the run home?

          One thing I’m sure of – I desperately want the Demons to put the Poodles to sleep. The Bulldogs have played in 4 Grand Finals. They participated in the GFs in 1954, 1961 and 2016. They failed to even make the finals the year after each of those. Call me vindictive but I’d love to see them miss finals yet again after playing in the GF last year! I’ll never forgive the charmed run they had in 2016!

          Most importantly though, GO BLOODS tomorrow!!!

          Comment

          • Ludwig
            Veterans List
            • Apr 2007
            • 9359

            #6
            Originally posted by Sandridge
            Not sure what to think about games like tonight’s. With 5 “winnable” games left for us, we’re 2 games and percentage ahead of 9th. Do we hope that the teams above us lose so that our chances of top 4 are enhanced or do we hope that the teams below us lose in case we have some hiccups in the run home?
            You always want to move up in the ladder if you think you are a contender, so we want the teams above us to lose. Just hanging on to make up the numbers is not the way to end the season. We need to finish strong.

            Comment

            • Torpin de Torpe
              On the Rookie List
              • Aug 2021
              • 18

              #7
              Originally posted by dejavoodoo44
              I decided to consult a ladder predictor, to see if I could construct situations where Essendon or Hawthorn make the eight. It's actually possible.
              I thought I was the only weirdo that did that sort of thing...(I have a screen dump but can't attach it).

              Great write-up...

              Comment

              • Markwebbos
                Veterans List
                • Jul 2016
                • 7186

                #8
                Originally posted by KTigers
                Let's just take it one game at a time.
                Don’t get me started with the cliches

                Comment

                • Maltopia
                  Senior Player
                  • Apr 2016
                  • 1556

                  #9
                  We talk about how good we are drafting players in the 30s and 40s, but my goodness, Shai Bolton is a star. Went in the low 40s in the year we took Florent and Hayward.

                  Comment

                  • Markwebbos
                    Veterans List
                    • Jul 2016
                    • 7186

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Maltopia
                    We talk about how good we are drafting players in the 30s and 40s, but my goodness, Shai Bolton is a star. Went in the low 40s in the year we took Florent and Hayward.
                    Pick 29 and he’s no Chad tbh

                    Comment

                    • Maltopia
                      Senior Player
                      • Apr 2016
                      • 1556

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Markwebbos
                      Pick 29 and he’s no Chad tbh
                      Yeah, Warner is better for sure. But Bolton just is very exciting and makes so many plays out of half a chance. Certainly a huge upgrade on Hayward at pick 21? that year.

                      Comment

                      • Markwebbos
                        Veterans List
                        • Jul 2016
                        • 7186

                        #12
                        He’s a steal at pick 29. Extraordinary talent

                        Comment

                        • 707
                          Veterans List
                          • Aug 2009
                          • 6204

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Markwebbos
                          He’s a steal at pick 29. Extraordinary talent
                          A steal now, had some risk attached to him from memory.

                          Hanneberry, Parker, Warner, Goodes, Reid all steals around the 40 mark, we've done ok

                          Comment

                          • Maltopia
                            Senior Player
                            • Apr 2016
                            • 1556

                            #14
                            Wow what a game tonight! Lots of fumbles but there was such pressure all game from both sides. Richmond choked and ended up with the draw after two non-shots at goal in the final two minutes - didn't hear the play on call for the first, and the second, played on with 2 seconds to go to the final whistle and didn't get to complete the shot.

                            Comment

                            • i'm-uninformed2
                              Reefer Madness
                              • Oct 2003
                              • 4653

                              #15
                              Choke on choke = draw
                              'Delicious' is a fun word to say

                              Comment

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