Rnd 21, vs North Melbourne at Marvel, on Sunday 7 August, 1:10 PM

[Kafka's Ghost]

Horse isn’t a rester, but Buddy was never expected to play every game and we’ve got the hot Pies off a 6 day break.

It would allow us to play both Ladhams and Hickey against Goldy or give MacDonald another run prior to finals without dropping Amartey,

It might signal that we are not taking Norf seriously … but i think the opposite will be true and we’ll be up for this game.

Does anyone know what’s wrong with Hickey and whether rest will improve things?

We’re playing the Magpies on Sunday, in the 3:20pm slot, so it’s definitely a 7-day break. They do have an extra 2 days rest, though.


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[Markwebbos]

We’re playing the Magpies on Sunday, in the 3:20pm slot, so it’s definitely a 7-day break. They do have an extra 2 days rest, though.


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Ooops. Well spotted

[Ludwig]

We’re playing the Magpies on Sunday, in the 3:20pm slot, so it’s definitely a 7-day break. They do have an extra 2 days rest, though.

I don't think this is a disadvantage for us. The 9 day break for Collingwood means an irregular training schedule for them, plus the long weekend will give Jordan de Goey more time to go on a drinking binge. The Pies can't go 9 days without getting into trouble.

[Aprilbr]

I don't think this is a disadvantage for us. The 9 day break for Collingwood means an irregular training schedule for them, plus the long weekend will give Jordan de Goey more time to go on a drinking binge. The Pies can't go 9 days without getting into trouble.

[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

[Agent 86]

We will be playing for third spot. Either the Demons beat the Pies, and a win by us have us overtaking the Pies, or the Pies beat the Demons and we a good win by us will have us overtake the Demons.

The thing about having a large percentage like the Demons with 131.6, is that a loss always means a big drop in percentage. E.g., if they lose 80-81 to the Pies, they will drop to 127.7% compared to our 126.5.

Hard to drop anyone from our winning team, though Hickey is looking banged up. We might be tempted to rest someone vs North Melbourne, but we need a good win here to push for top 2!

I think Ladhams for Hickey might be the only change, but would be ok with Logan coming in for Almartey as well. JPK and Cunningham unlucky again I guess to be injured at the wrong time and for Fox, Stephens and Clarke to be playing really well.

Maths not my strong point, but if they lose by a point, will their percentage really drop by almost 4? Seems a lot for such a wee loss?

[bandwagon]

No change apart from injury. In 2005 we went into the finals with hardly an unchanged team. I doubt Buddy will want to rest. Kennedy played in the 2's so there is no reason he can't be the sub.

No change - keep the 2005 vibe going.

I recall at the time I wanted Schauble and Nicks recalled for Bevan & LRT so clearly my team selection insights were not the best...

[i'm-uninformed2]

No change - keep the 2005 vibe going.

I recall at the time I wanted Schauble and Nicks recalled for Bevan & LRT so clearly my team selection insights were not the best...

The great Luke Vogels tragedy.

[dejavoodoo44]

I don't think this is a disadvantage for us. The 9 day break for Collingwood means an irregular training schedule for them, plus the long weekend will give Jordan de Goey more time to go on a drinking binge. The Pies can't go 9 days without getting into trouble.

It's more than enough time for De Goey to go to Bali, get thoroughly wasted, buy a small cow, and have an ugly confrontation at the airport, over the injustice of him not being allowed to bring his new friend back to Australia.

[Agent 86]

Guess who I spotted lurking behind the Troy Luff stand!

[MattW]

Horse isn’t a rester, but Buddy was never expected to play every game and we’ve got the hot Pies off a 6 day break.

It would allow us to play both Ladhams and Hickey against Goldy or give MacDonald another run prior to finals without dropping Amartey,

It might signal that we are not taking Norf seriously … but i think the opposite will be true and we’ll be up for this game.

Does anyone know what’s wrong with Hickey and whether rest will improve things?

We play Collingwood after a 7 day break. We finish the year with three consecutive Sunday games.

I'd be surprised if we rested Buddy, as John wouldn't want to give the impression of taking North easily, nor generate additional risk unnecessarily. There is also the pre-finals bye.

Logan for Amartey more likely. I personally think it's time to make that change.

[Ludwig]

Buddy may well be our best forward, but we don't necessarily play better when he's in the side. I thought we targeted him way too much on Saturday, leading to so many turnovers, when we could have gone forward in a way that was more likely to lead to a goal.

I don't think Amartey has been great, but it's difficult playing the last target in the forward line with the options we have up forward. At least he got his TOG up to 72%. He still needs to improve his tank to become a good key forward. I don't think it makes much difference swapping Amartey for either McDonald of McLean.

[liz]

Buddy may well be our best forward, but we don't necessarily play better when he's in the side. I thought we targeted him way too much on Saturday, leading to so many turnovers, when we could have gone forward in a way that was more likely to lead to a goal.

I don't think Amartey has been great, but it's difficult playing the last target in the forward line with the options we have up forward. At least he got his TOG up to 72%. He still needs to improve his tank to become a good key forward. I don't think it makes much difference swapping Amartey for either McDonald of McLean.

I'm with you that I don't think the choice of Amartey or McDonald will make much difference to match outcome. They both provide a bit, but aren't yet ready to do much more. McDonald more regularly works up the ground to provide a target coming out of defence or along the wing, though Amartey did some of that on the weekend. I think Amartey is a little more reliable at the moment in making a contest in the forward line, even if he doesn't mark. McDonald isn't quite as ready to relentlessly through his body into contests. Plus Amartey's ability to contribute in the ruck, if needed, is something in his favour.

It's also worth noting that right up to the eve of the season, Amartey was doing very little training. So he had no opportunity last pre-season to build his endurance base. I'm still quite optimistic about his long term value to the team.

[waswan]

Logan for Amartey for the simple fact he didnt do enough to keep Logan out, same happened for Logan a few weeks back.

As for playing alongside Buddy, between him, Paps, Heeney and Reid surely its a gift being the 5th string fwd ?

Lets not pretend Buddy is stopping anyone from kicking bags, plenty of opportunity for a developing Fwd.

[The Big Cat]

Maths not my strong point, but if they lose by a point, will their percentage really drop by almost 4? Seems a lot for such a wee loss?

It’s actually not the win or loss that matters with percentage, but rather the difference between points for and against. In the example quoted earlier Melbourne could actually beat the Pies by a point and have a very similar drop in percentage to losing by a point. i.e. The win was less than their average spread of points, for and against..

A lot of people don’t realise teams can win and their percentage go down or can lose and their percentage go up.

Percentage is a ratio, not an addition or subtraction of margins.

[Maltopia]

Maths not my strong point, but if they lose by a point, will their percentage really drop by almost 4? Seems a lot for such a wee loss?

The drop of almost 4 was for that specific example of an 80-81 loss (or a 81-80 win).

If they lose 0-1, their percentage drops almost nothing, the same as if they win 1-0.

If they lose 100 to 101, they will lose more percentage than the 80-81 scenario (or a 101-100 win).

The percentage is their total scores from all games, divided by their total scores against. So if they have to keep scoring 131.6 points to every 100 points the opponents score to maintain their 131.6 percentage.

So narrow wins or losses will still hurt them a lot percentage wise, and more so if it is larger scores by each team (as then the ratio of scores against scores against narrows by more).