2022 Finals Week One Fixture

[Mountain Man]

Round 12 the Swans were successful at the MCG 9/10 to 7/13.

Franklin was suspended; and May was injured for the game.

Other changes from our R23 team were Ladhams played instead of Hickey; the 3 other changes were Amarty, Wicks and O'Riordan, replaced (currently) by Franklin, Clarke, Stephens

In Franklins absence, Reid kicked 3/1, McDonald 3/2 , Papley 2/1 and Heeney1/2. Gulden snagged his usual 1!

Melbourne goal kickers were Gawn 3/1, Fritsch 3/0, Jackson 1/1.

As someone has observed, their height will challenge our defence. Their wingmen that day (Langdon and Jordan) both scored goals, so hopefully Stephens and McInerney can negate.

But to revert to my first comment - Franklin V May!!

[Thunder Shaker]

Assuming the Cats beat Collingwood:
- if we beat Melbourne, our preliminary final will be against Collingwood, Fremantle or the Bulldogs;
- if we lose to Melbourne we have to play the winner of Richmond-Brisbane in a semi final, then Geelong in the prelim.

The second path is considerably more difficult.

That first game against Melbourne has ginormous stakes.

Richmond: Their recent form has been excellent. Since the end of April, they've won 11 games, drew one and lost four. Those four losses have been by a total of 15 points. I would not want to meet them in a semi final.
Brisbane: We have only beaten them once in the past four years (by 31 points in round 1 last year). I want to avoid them too.

So we must defeat Melbourne. I would rather have a finals series where we play the other top four sides than meeting any of the bottom eight.

Here's why. The form of top four sides against the other top four sides:

Geelong: Sydney (L 30), Collingwood (W 13), Melbourne (W 28).
Melbourne: Sydney (L 12), Collingwood (L 26), Geelong (L 28), Collingwood (L 7).
Sydney: Geelong (W 30), Melbourne (W 12), Collingwood (W 27).
Collingwood: Geelong (L 13), Melbourne (W 26), Melbourne (W 7), Sydney (L 27).

It's possible to produce a form ladder for the top four sides. Accounting for Melbourne playing Collingwood twice by making these worth half as much as the other games, the form ladder for the top four sides looks like this:

Sydney 3-0
Geelong 2-1
Collingwood 1-2
Melbourne 0-3.

So yes, we must defeat Melbourne - if we do, we shouldn't fear anyone else.

[RogueSwan]

I'm glad we aren't the first game this weekend but it would make it easier to know who to barrack for tonight, or more accurately, who I want to lose
If I wasn't concerned about our path I would like the Lions to win although a loss would have a certain schadenfreude about it.
Watching the 2022 Premiers (according to most media) lose to the Pies would also be fun but it means the Pies would win, talking about being conflicted

[Goal Sneak]

I'm glad we aren't the first game this weekend but it would make it easier to know who to barrack for tonight, or more accurately, who I want to lose
If I wasn't concerned about our path I would like the Lions to win although a loss would have a certain schadenfreude about it.
Watching the 2022 Premiers (according to most media) lose to the Pies would also be fun but it means the Pies would win, talking about being conflicted

I think we need the Cats to end the notion of the Collingwood fairytale scenario. It will be at 2016 levels in Vic if they win on Saturday. The Cats can then get beaten in the Prelim so I can see the look on Brad Scotts' face. I don't mind the Cats so much but not a fan of the coach at all.

[bloodspirit]

I think we need the Cats to end the notion of the Collingwood fairytale scenario. It will be at 2016 levels in Vic if they win on Saturday. The Cats can then get beaten in the Prelim so I can see the look on Brad Scotts' face. I don't mind the Cats so much but not a fan of the coach at all.

I like the sound of that. Dees beat Cats in the prelim and we get to face off against them again in the granny. Done.

[mcs]

I think we need the Cats to end the notion of the Collingwood fairytale scenario. It will be at 2016 levels in Vic if they win on Saturday. The Cats can then get beaten in the Prelim so I can see the look on Brad Scotts' face. I don't mind the Cats so much but not a fan of the coach at all.

Cats will roll Collingwood easily for mine. They aren't that good - despite they gazillion game winning streak, where 0 came up on the roulette wheel about 8 times. Cats choke will come in the prelim - they only have to see how we beat them to show how to make Collingwood completely uncomfortable. The effort will be there from Collingwood, but if the game isn't on their terms (or they are playing a bunch of chokers like Carlton) they'll be shown up to be the pretenders they are. Still wouldn't surprise me if they make a prelim (given they'd get either Freo or the Fairypups in week 2), but I don't think, unless the fairytale extends to fairypuppyesque umpiring on a grand stage that they can win flag.

[stevoswan]

Cats will roll Collingwood easily for mine. They aren't that good - despite they gazillion game winning streak, where 0 came up on the roulette wheel about 8 times. Cats choke will come in the prelim - they only have to see how we beat them to show how to make Collingwood completely uncomfortable. The effort will be there from Collingwood, but if the game isn't on their terms (or they are playing a bunch of chokers like Carlton) they'll be shown up to be the pretenders they are. Still wouldn't surprise me if they make a prelim (given they'd get either Freo or the Fairypups in week 2), but I don't think, unless the fairytale extends to fairypuppyesque umpiring on a grand stage that they can win flag.

I agree with the Geelong/Collingwood assessment.....serious team v pretenders.

On the fairytale stuff, this is what I was implying on another thread re: Gil anointing them as this years 'fairytale' (he did not use that exact word but he may as well have)......that sort of crap gets into the umpires heads. We all saw what happened in 2016 when the umpires went into the GF with a 'narrative' firmly planted in their Victorian based brains.

[crackedactor 01]

The only thing I fear is the Victorian umpires. It looks like its Collingwood's turn to be the AFL's darling.

[Goal Sneak]

I agree with the Geelong/Collingwood assessment.....serious team v pretenders.

On the fairytale stuff, this is what I was implying on another thread re: Gil anointing them as this years 'fairytale' (he did not use that exact word but he may as well have)......that sort of crap gets into the umpires heads. We all saw what happened in 2016 when the umpires went into the GF with a 'narrative' firmly planted in their Victorian based brains.

Robbo (don't know his full name) actually said fairytale on AFL 360 in reference to the Pies. It made me a little nauseous

[liz]

Mark Robinson

[bloodspirit]

Titus O'Reily has published his pre-finals 'unhelpful guide': A highly unhelpful guide to AFL Finals Week One - Titus O'Reily | Don’t have faith in yourself (titusoreily.com).

He starts off on fire: "Say goodbye to everyone for the next four weeks, because the finals are here, the most wonderful time of the year.
It’s the time of the year when you can say to your child ‘sorry, we’re moving your birthday to October, and stop crying.’
Seven top teams and the Western Bulldogs will compete for the premiership"

[stevoswan]

Titus O'Reily has published his pre-finals 'unhelpful guide': A highly unhelpful guide to AFL Finals Week One - Titus O'Reily | Don’t have faith in yourself (titusoreily.com).

He starts off on fire: "Say goodbye to everyone for the next four weeks, because the finals are here, the most wonderful time of the year.
It’s the time of the year when you can say to your child ‘sorry, we’re moving your birthday to October, and stop crying.’
Seven top teams and the Western Bulldogs will compete for the premiership"

I love Titus! He's see's things as they actually are.

[bloodspirit]

Go Lions!

[bloodspirit]

They're looking hopeless so far.

[ugg]

Ah the footy gods can be cruel. Fagan was criticised for selecting a ruckman as his sub a few weeks back, could have done with Darcy Fort tonight as the sub