AFLW Round 11 vs West Coast

[Thunder Shaker]

The match against the Eagles will go a long way to determining whether Sydney can make the finals. Currently, Sydney sits ninth, one game outside the top eight with a competitive percentage. West Coast play Carlton in the last round, which creates an opportunity if Sydney can win both games.

To go ahead of West Coast on percentage, Sydney needs to win by 37 points or more.

In team selection, Privitelli comes in to the team while Reid has been omitted. Molloy has not yet recovered from her back injury. West Coast makes one forced change; Kavanagh comes in to the team for the injured Bushby.

For the other teams on six wins:
* Carlton will play GWS Giants at home. Carlton should win this.
* Adelaide will meet Port Adelaide in the Showdown. Port Adelaide has potential to be a banana peel for Adelaide's finals chances because they have been competitive against teams currently in the top eight. They defeated Melbourne by 2 points and thumped Hawthorn by 35 points.

Go Swans.

[bandwagon]

Ella Roberts is out for the Weagles, which is a shame 'cos she is a super player, but also good news as it kinda balances the absence of Chloe & Sofia from our line up. 10 minutes ago I had the Eagles as close favourites, now I'm putting us narrowly ahead.

[bandwagon]

Q1: 2.3 v 1.1
Good quarter for us, most of the possessions and territory with the wind, but Eagles defending well. Cynthia Hamilton out for the match - hopefully not a knee.
Gardiner, Ham and TK looking good in the middle, Fish being tagged again - and probably will be for the rest of her career.

[bandwagon]

HT: 3.3 v 2.5
More of an arm wrestle. Eagles looking to use the wind with long kicking over the top, but our defence is very composed - especially Van Loon and Mitchell, with Fish creating more run this quarter. Our center square quartet are giving us the edge in the middle, and Privitelli effective up forward with 2 goals and smart assists.

[bandwagon]

3QT: 6.6 v2.7
We put on a bit of a break which might be needed as WCE are apparently a good last quarter team, and they will have the breeze.
Good goals from Privitelli, Cooper and Davies - actually looks as if our forward line can function without Molloy. I'm sure this last quarter will be a scrap.

[bandwagon]

Bad miss by Lexi Hamilton (tho' the free kick was iffy), then straight down the other end for a WCE goal. 18 point game.

[Sandridge]

Go you mighty Bloods!!

(Greatly appreciate your insights and updates Thunder and Bandwagon!)

[bandwagon]

FT: 6.7 v 3.8
Excellent win, such a strong defensive effort in the last quarter across the whole team. Very even performance, but my votes FWIW:
3 - Gardiner
2 - Morphett
1 - Kennedy
The whole defensive unit were solid, with Van Loon very strong in the contest. Ham was classy in the middle, and Privitelli and Cooper impressive up front.

Really looking forward to Essendon next week - another performance like that and we will be playing finals this year.

[Thunder Shaker]

If Carlton lose to GWS tomorrow, there will be five teams with 6 wins, four of them play each other, and only three will play finals. Wildcard round?

[Thunder Shaker]

If Carlton lose to GWS tomorrow, there will be five teams with 6 wins, four of them play each other, and only three will play finals. Wildcard round?

Carlton will defeat GWS by a big margin. Play currently on hold due to a thunderstorm.

5th Carlton 7 wins. Play West Coast
6th St Kilda 7 wins. Play Western Bulldogs.
7th West Coast 6 wins. Play Carlton.
8th Adelaide 6 wins. Play Fremantle.
9th Sydney 6 wins. Play Essendon.
10th Fremantle 6 wins. Play Adelaide.

There are a lot of permutations for the finals. I'll keep it simple: if Sydney win, Sydney will play finals unless West Coast, Adelaide and St Kilda all win and the first two teams stay ahead of Sydney on percentage. Adelaide is currently ahead of Sydney by 1.3%. This difference is about 6 points.

[bandwagon]

If we win by about 3 goals we should be in the finals, and looking at how Essendon are tracking I'm reasonably confident we should manage it. But our two worst performances of the year came against teams we SHOULD have beaten easily, so...