Midaro's List Analysis (1-20)

[robbieando]

Originally posted by midaro
If Barry Hall does his knee in Round 1 we have no replacement at all. Schauble either (IMO much of our trouble this year can be attributed to his absence). If any of those things happen, our team would suffer - no question.

No doubt about that, but then again we aren't talking of trading Hall and Schauble.

If we traded O'Keefe, for Hayes/Fletch/Kerr then O'Loughlin was lost to injury, would we be any worse off than if we didn't trade O'Keefe and O'Loughlin was lost to injury?

Of course we will be worse off. Even worse off if Hall were to then get injuried. Face it, our attack is our strong point when they are all together. When 1 or 2 of them miss and Hall is forced back towards the goal square we fall apart. Why brake up a strong point of the side????

I'd back Hall, Davis & Schneider to kick more goals with 10% more inside 50s, than Hall, Davis, O'Keefe & Schneider with our current midfield.

I sure as hell wouldn't because one of Hayes/Fletch/Kerr won't mean a 10% rise of Inside 50 for starters. The bonus of our forward line is the fact we don't need Barry Hall to play a true Full Forwards position because we can push him up the ground to CHF and allow Magic and O'Keefe to use the space behind him to good effect. Without Magic and/or O'Keefe, Barry can't play up the ground as we would like, thus forcing him to camp 30m out from goal and get double or even triple teamed which Hall has shown he can't handle or cope with, nobody can.

So with Hall not kicking as many goals as we would like and needing Davis and Schneider to cover the amount of goals that Magic and O'Keefe would normally kick as well as their own, I wouldn't bet on a forward line of Hall, Schneider and Davis kicking more goals than one with both O'Keefe and Magic in it.

Anyway you don't trade well performing players unless they want to move back to their home state. Brisbane didn't become the force they are today by doing what your suggesting. You trade the likes of Saddo, Fosdike and Ablett, not a O'Keefe.

[midaro]

Originally posted by robbieando

quote:
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Originally posted by midaro
If Barry Hall does his knee in Round 1 we have no replacement at all. Schauble either (IMO much of our trouble this year can be attributed to his absence). If any of those things happen, our team would suffer - no question.
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No doubt about that, but then again we aren't talking of trading Hall and Schauble.

quote:
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Originally posted by midaro
If we traded O'Keefe, for Hayes/Fletch/Kerr then O'Loughlin was lost to injury, would we be any worse off than if we didn't trade O'Keefe and O'Loughlin was lost to injury?
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Of course we will be worse off. Even worse off if Hall were to then get injuried. Face it, our attack is our strong point when they are all together. When 1 or 2 of them miss and Hall is forced back towards the goal square we fall apart. Why brake up a strong point of the side????

I don't WANT to break up a strong point of the side, but I'd be prepared to sacrifice in an area of plenty (the forward line), to bolster an area of need (the midfield). IMO Hayes/Fletcher/Kerr would be more valuable to OUR team, than O'Keefe.

Originally posted by robbieando

quote:
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Originally posted by midaro
I'd back Hall, Davis & Schneider to kick more goals with 10% more inside 50s, than Hall, Davis, O'Keefe & Schneider with our current midfield.
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I sure as hell wouldn't because one of Hayes/Fletch/Kerr won't mean a 10% rise of Inside 50 for starters. The bonus of our forward line is the fact we don't need Barry Hall to play a true Full Forwards position because we can push him up the ground to CHF and allow Magic and O'Keefe to use the space behind him to good effect. Without Magic and/or O'Keefe, Barry can't play up the ground as we would like, thus forcing him to camp 30m out from goal and get double or even triple teamed which Hall has shown he can't handle or cope with, nobody can.

So with Hall not kicking as many goals as we would like and needing Davis and Schneider to cover the amount of goals that Magic and O'Keefe would normally kick as well as their own, I wouldn't bet on a forward line of Hall, Schneider and Davis kicking more goals than one with both O'Keefe and Magic in it.

You must have a higher opinion of our midfield than I do. IMO Hayes/Fletcher/Kerr would easily up our inside 50s +10%. We're one of the worst in the league in this stat (anyone got a source?)

As for O'Keefe playing behind Hall, it doesn't really happen. O'Keefe gets most of his possessions outside 50.
Compare: O'Keefe 300 touches, 28 goals. Hall 300 touches, 68 goals.
IMO if O'Loughlin was injured, Davis would be a better bet at FF than O'Keefe.

So going back to your hypothetical of O'Loughlin getting injured after we've traded O'Keefe, we have:
Hall, Davis, Schneider + Hayes/Fletcher/Kerr
VERSUS
Hall, Davis, Schneider + O'Keefe

I guess the question becomes; how good is O'Keefe?
He's kicked 28 goals in 21 matches this year as a HFF, but...
he'll never be a KPP, he's not a midfielder, and he's already had one knee reco. He is a very good player and at 23 will could potentially kick 30-35 goals a year for the next 7-10 years.

Hayes/Fletcher/Kerr (or Bruce/Johnson/Green/Haselby/etc) are probably worth about 10 goals a year, directly. So the difference is about 20-25 goals a year, (1 goal a game on average). But, with extra inside 50s due to their ability to get and use the ball, plus the fact that some talent on the ball could actually change our game-plan back to free-flowing (from the Eade-esque defensiveness it has reverted to) - Hayes/Fletcher/Kerr could easily better O'Keefe's imput.

Originally posted by robbieando

Anyway you don't trade well performing players unless they want to move back to their home state. Brisbane didn't become the force they are today by doing what your suggesting. You trade the likes of Saddo, Fosdike and Ablett, not a O'Keefe.

Agree (except I don't think we'd get a can of coke for Ablett). I'd be happy if we didn't trade and only took the mandatory 3 at the draft. All this is just exploring the possibilities.

[Snowy]

the other option is to play Davis as a permanent midfielder and allow O'Keefe to float between the two roles. In 2001 he played mainly as an on-baller and kicked 36 goals while averaging lots of possessions.

[liz]

You can't measure a player's worth purely by his own output. You also have to consider the role he plays within the team, and his flexibility. That's why, on this season's form, O'Keefe is worth far more than the 30 or so goals he might directly contribute.

He's not overly fast but has excellent endurance which means he is able to work very hard for the whole match pushing up and down the ground. This helps clear out space for the likes of Hall, when required, but because he is also dangerous when he pushes back into the forward 50, he cannot be left alone by the opposition. He is also valuable as a link man along the wings because he's a strong mark and has a penetrating kick.

Furthermore, while he will never be a true KPP, he has shown the ability to take strong contested marks in the goal square (eg first Bombers game this year) plus he can afford to playing a leading role out to the pockets because he can kick goals from there. He is therefore an excellent option to use if the team is ever without Baz and needs to construct a makeshift forward line. I'd prefer to have him as the "main target" in the goal square than Davis, for example.

O'Keefe is one of my absolute favourite players at the moment and I would hate to see him traded. However, putting the emotion aside, and accepting the old adage that you have to trade quality to get quality, I don't think he's untouchable. But it would have to be an exceptionally good "get" for the Swans in return for me to be placated if he were to be traded, and somehow I think that his relatively low profile means that the Swans wouldn't get enough value in return to make trading him worthwhile.

[Snowy]

I think O'Keefe is starting to be noticed around the traps and would command value in a trade.

[Bart]

Originally posted by Snowy
I think O'Keefe is starting to be noticed around the traps and would command value in a trade.

I honestly believe if we are going to be able to attract an elite player, we are going to have to offer the likes of O'Keefe. But I hope only if it is an elite player i.e. Koschitzke, Judd, Pavlich etc etc, players who fill the holes that need filling. I wouldn't trade him for Hayes or Tarrant

[Snowy]

good point you need sort after quality for quality. I think Tarrant for O'Keefe would be a steal though. We're hamstrung to some extent by not being able to trade Davis as O'Keefe has moved ahead of him as a player this year.

[Bart]

Originally posted by Snowy
good point you need sort after quality for quality. I think Tarrant for O'Keefe would be a steal though. We're hamstrung to some extent by not being able to trade Davis as O'Keefe has moved ahead of him as a player this year.

I wouldn't describe Tarrant for O'Keefe as a steal. We don't need Tarrant. We should go out and out for Koschitzke. Saints could do with the cap relief. HE is what we need

[NMWBloods]

Kosi would be fantastic, although I wonder if he's a bit injury prone.

[Bart]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Kosi would be fantastic, although I wonder if he's a bit injury prone.

He had a well documented back problem in 2002, but played 17 games in 2003. That problem seems to be behind him. Dislocated shoulder this season, but has recovered from that. And now he goes and injures. He's been very unlucky.

Do AFL clubs get the option of doing a full medical on targets before signing like they do in the english premier league ?

[NMWBloods]

Not sure, but it certainly would be a good idea!

[midaro]

There has been many posts on Bigfooty (so I'm sceptical) that say Kosi has done something to his foot and won't play again this year.

http://www.bigfooty.com//forum/showthread.php?t=129326

http://www.bigfooty.com//forum/showthread.php?t=129280

[Nico]

Originally posted by midaro
If your criticism relates to trading both Micky and O'Keefe at the same time - yes, that would be idiotic. Changing a strength into a weakness like that would be madness.

...but if you're saying that we shouldn't trade talent fullstop, I think you're being naive. Sacrificing O'Keefe to get a gun midfielder - and therefore more supply to Hall, O'Loughlin & Davis - would be sound strategy.

How could you possibly think I meant both at the same time.

I will make it nice and clear. Any one who remotely suggests trading either Micky or O'Keefe either individually or collectively knows nothing about football talent.

Did I say we shouldn't trade football talent fullstop? No!

Finding a gun midfielder by trade is pure fantasy right now. They are as scarce as hens teeth and would need a huge salary plus draft picks, plus players.

Why on earth would they even remotely consider such a talented, emerging player like O'Keefe for trade. If you are building a team for a tilt at the flag in the next 3 years he is right in the guts of the nucleus they are developing.

Would Geelong consider trading one of their emerging nucleus? Hell no.

[Nico]

Originally posted by liz
You can't measure a player's worth purely by his own output. You also have to consider the role he plays within the team, and his flexibility. That's why, on this season's form, O'Keefe is worth far more than the 30 or so goals he might directly contribute.

He's not overly fast but has excellent endurance which means he is able to work very hard for the whole match pushing up and down the ground. This helps clear out space for the likes of Hall, when required, but because he is also dangerous when he pushes back into the forward 50, he cannot be left alone by the opposition. He is also valuable as a link man along the wings because he's a strong mark and has a penetrating kick.

Furthermore, while he will never be a true KPP, he has shown the ability to take strong contested marks in the goal square (eg first Bombers game this year) plus he can afford to playing a leading role out to the pockets because he can kick goals from there. He is therefore an excellent option to use if the team is ever without Baz and needs to construct a makeshift forward line. I'd prefer to have him as the "main target" in the goal square than Davis, for example.

O'Keefe is one of my absolute favourite players at the moment and I would hate to see him traded. However, putting the emotion aside, and accepting the old adage that you have to trade quality to get quality, I don't think he's untouchable. But it would have to be an exceptionally good "get" for the Swans in return for me to be placated if he were to be traded, and somehow I think that his relatively low profile means that the Swans wouldn't get enough value in return to make trading him worthwhile.

Liz, he is now untouchable. His development and maturity this season and even over the past few weeks has been a big part in our revival.

His possessions have been of the highest quality and his reading of the play last week was outstanding. I believe other clubs are finding it very hard to contain him.

He was recruited as a midfielder and there is no reason why he could not develop into a quality midfielder, and if you watch him he is spending more time in the midfield, then pushing into the forward line. Leaving space for Hall, Davis, Micky but chiming in with goals from receives.

[Nico]

Originally posted by Bart
I honestly believe if we are going to be able to attract an elite player, we are going to have to offer the likes of O'Keefe. But I hope only if it is an elite player i.e. Koschitzke, Judd, Pavlich etc etc, players who fill the holes that need filling. I wouldn't trade him for Hayes or Tarrant

Strewth, O'Keefe might not be classed as elite as yet but his profile is gaining momentum by the week. This bloke is a quality player who is just getting better and would seriously be considered in the next generation of leaders at the club.

What in the hell is the point is developing a player if when he shows the goods he is put up for trade. You develop players to win flags not throw them away.

Roos is into developing players and he is doing a darned good job with Ryan.

I think a lot of supporters are now "trade happy" and believe clubs should trade for the sake of trading.