18 wins

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
Excluding the jammy flags where the dominant team(s) crumbled at finals time:

Port 2004 - 17 wins
Brisbane 2002 - 17 wins
Brisbane 2001 - 17 wins
Essendon 2000 - 21 wins
Kangaroos 1999 - 17 wins
Kangaroos 1996 - 17 wins
Carlton 1995 - 20 wins

Average = 18 wins.

That is the most ridiculous use of stats.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
That is the most ridiculous use of stats.

No, what is ridiculous is to think its ok to go through a season winning 15 or 16 games...again..., and try to snatch a flag in the finals. Losers mentality, and destined to fail. (Yes it might work occationally, but is not where the swans should be)

[NMWBloods]

But as I have shown, it is possible to finish top two with 16 wins (7 times in past 10 years) and in most cases, as has been demonstrated, 17 wins is enough. There is no requirement to win 18 games, which is what you stated as a necessity.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
But as I have shown, it is possible to finish top two with 16 wins (7 times in past 10 years) and in most cases, as has been demonstrated, 17 wins is enough. There is no requirement to win 18 games, which is what you stated as a necessity.

The top 2 is not enough. In the current environment finishing 2nd with another interstater above us (Port, Brisbane), means we end up forced to play a prelim in Melbourne against a (likely) Melbourne team. A huge hurdle since its against another top 4 team.

1st is what is required, and 18 wins ensures that in most cases. Home finals all the way to the granny. And going into the finals with momentum and a physcological edge over all other opponents.

[NMWBloods]

Surely we should be capable of winning more than one game at the MCG?

17 wins produced a top spot 6 of the past ten years.

The top side at the end of H&A has won the flag 4 times in past ten years (two of those were the absolutely dominant teams of Carlton in '95 and Essendon in '00).

To get 18 wins also means we can only lose 4 games - we haven't done that since '45, and we did it in '45 and '34-'36. However 4 losses out of 22 is equivalent to only 3 losses out of 18, which we haven't done since '35-'36.

[cruiser]

The more I look at our draw, the more I think that it's one of the best draws Sydney has had for quite some time. It certainly provides Sydney with a great opportunity to grab a top two finish, especially if injuries and suspensions keep affecting teams like Port, Brisbane and St Kilda and if Sydney has a good run with injuries and if Sydney's players find consistent form and if, if, if, if .....

I think I'll just stick to looking at the next game for now.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by barry
The top 2 is not enough. In the current environment finishing 2nd with another interstater above us (Port, Brisbane), means we end up forced to play a prelim in Melbourne against a (likely) Melbourne team. A huge hurdle since its against another top 4 team.

The Swans have a healthy contingent of ex-South Melbourne fans who would turn up to the game. There are H&A games in Melbourne where there are more Swans fans than opposition fans.

Furthermore, the preliminary final will have a fair contingent of neutral football fans. The majority of them would choose to barrack for the Swans, especially if the opposition is a much-hated side like Essendon or Collingwood.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Surely we should be capable of winning more than one game at the MCG?

We will have to win 1 at the MCG against the best opposition in the comp in the grand final, but 2 in a row plus travel is a high risk scenario best avoided.

17 wins produced a top spot 6 of the past ten years.

The top side at the end of H&A has won the flag 4 times in past ten years (two of those were the absolutely dominant teams of Carlton in '95 and Essendon in '00).

To get 18 wins also means we can only lose 4 games - we haven't done that since '45, and we did it in '45 and '34-'36. However 4 losses out of 22 is equivalent to only 3 losses out of 18, which we haven't done since '35-'36.

And we've been a rat-arsed side since then. Things have to change if we are ever going to be a premier. No point just continuing on with our miserable history.

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by barry
And we've been a rat-arsed side since then.

Are you new?

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by barry
We will have to win 1 at the MCG against the best opposition in the comp in the grand final, but 2 in a row plus travel is a high risk scenario best avoided.

And we've been a rat-arsed side since then. Things have to change if we are ever going to be a premier. No point just continuing on with our miserable history.

u been sniffing





after reading this thread i think once again NMW is spot on!

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by barry
Unfortunetly this thread is symptomatic as to why the swans are such an unsuccesful club.

18 wins in the regular season is what is required to win a premiership. Forget this cr@p about 15 or 16 wins, finishing mid-8 and relying on luck to sneak a flag. Thats fairy stuff. It will never work.

Our team is peaking at the moment, as far as the Roos rebuild goes, and we have an extremely soft draw.

I repeat 18 H&A wins is required for a premiership. A premiership is EXPECTED every 16 years. Until people here and the swans expect these events, we will never acheive them.

FFS, honourable 4ths are useless.

Looks like we can't win the flag. See you in 2006 barry.

[barry]

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
Looks like we can't win the flag. See you in 2006 barry.

Contrary to the hype of the moment, we are still pushing you know what up hill to win the flag this year.
Beat WC in Perth, when only the top side has done it and then via less scoring shots, or beat the top side in Adelaide.
We havent beaten either side in those venues for quite some time.
And thats just to get to a grand final !, not win one.

18 wins would have us in a much stronger position. And we could have had 18 if we didnt stuff around at the start of the year.

[Go Swannies]

I blame Magic and those other players that came into the season with injuries. And the kids that took weeks to get up to speed. And Nick Davis - he had a great start at the beginning of last year (well, for half a game, anyway). And the sheer idiocy of Willo doing a collarbone. And Baz kicking like crap early in the season (and yesterday) - get rid of him. As a coach, Roos has no idea. By rights, we should be unbeaten by now.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
By rights, we should be unbeaten by now.

At which point they should just give us the flag and call off the Finals

[ScottH]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
I blame Magic and those other players that came into the season with injuries. And the kids that took weeks to get up to speed. And Nick Davis - he had a great start at the beginning of last year (well, for half a game, anyway). And the sheer idiocy of Willo doing a collarbone. And Baz kicking like crap early in the season (and yesterday) - get rid of him. As a coach, Roos has no idea. By rights, we should be unbeaten by now.

Blame LRT, he was so ordinary for most of the year.