Where will our Bloods finish by rd 22? Take the ladder predictor and let's discuss!!

[Hazcam]

our % is 3rd best in the comp and if we can manage to beat richmond and melbourne by a @@@@load then we will really be in good shape to clinch a top 4, or at least a home final.

however, as the pattern has been since 2004: we're 12th in attack and 4th in defence

geelong is miles ahead on both

[SimonH]

our % is 3rd best in the comp and if we can manage to beat richmond and melbourne by a @@@@load then we will really be in good shape to clinch a top 4, or at least a home final.

Unless teams like the Roos and Hawthorn start alternating between winning by 200 points one week, and losing by 5 points the next, it won't matter how much we beat the likes of Richmond and Melbourne by. We have our rivals covered for percentage, just not premiership points. We just need to get the 4 points week-in, week-out.

[Hazcam]

Unless teams like the Roos and Hawthorn start alternating between winning by 200 points one week, and losing by 5 points the next, it won't matter how much we beat the likes of Richmond and Melbourne by. We have our rivals covered for percentage, just not premiership points. We just need to get the 4 points week-in, week-out.

It may be a blessing in disguise that we have top 4 contenders collingwood and hawthorn in the final 2 rounds.
If we manage to win or get close it will get us hardened for the real thing when finals start.

I'm really worried about the last 4 games though. We may not even win 1 of them all thing being equal.

Geez im a pessimist with the swans at times!

[hammo]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2510 1651 72 152.0
2 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2130 1862 64 114.3
7 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2139 1754 56 121.9
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2084 1911 56 109.0
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2065 2013 56 102.5
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2248 2142 52 104.9
3 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2100 2065 52 101.6
11 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1958 1807 48 108.3
8 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 1907 1971 48 96.7
10 Bris Lions 22 11 10 1 2101 1927 46 109.0
12 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2194 2277 40 96.3
9 W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2179 2367 40 92.0
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2138 2223 32 96.1
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2162 2778 20 77.8
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1862 2390 12 77.9
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1914 2553 10 74.9

[Damien]

God that would mean another Qualifying Final at bloody Subi, Hammo!!!

[Zlatorog]

If they are lucky and they win away game at the G against Collingwood the there are some remote possibilities that they might finish 4th providing that other results will go our way. But we must not drop any home games, otherwise we're in trouble.

[ScottH]

 1 	Geelong 	22 	17 	 5 	 0 	2439 	1722 	68 	141.6
 2 	Kangaroos 	22 	16 	 6 	 0 	2141 	2003 	64 	106.8
 4 	West Coast 	22 	15 	 7 	 0 	2100 	1892 	60 	110.9
 3 	Port Adel 	22 	14 	 8 	 0 	2326 	2101 	56 	110.7
 6 	Collingwood 	22 	14 	 8 	 0 	2047 	2031 	56 	100.7
 7 	Sydney 		22 	13 	 9 	 0 	2066 	1827 	52 	113.0
 5 	Hawthorn 	22 	13 	 9 	 0 	2064 	1910 	52 	108.0
11 	Bris Lions 	22 	12 	 9 	 1 	2101 	1927 	50 	109.0

Syd v Haw in Sydney, would be a nice way to start the finals campaign.

[JudesaGun]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2475 1686 76 146.7
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2149 1843 60 116.6
7 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2100 1793 56 117.1
3 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2354 2073 56 113.5
2 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2145 1999 56 107.3
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2075 2003 52 103.5
9 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 1925 1953 52 98.5
12 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1966 1821 48 107.9

8 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2232 2261 48 98.7
5 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2034 1940 44 104.8
10 W Bulldogs 22 11 11 0 2203 2343 44 94.0
11 Bris Lions 22 9 12 1 2077 1951 38 106.4
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2168 2193 36 98.8
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1854 2435 16 76.1
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2094 2846 16 73.5
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1878 2589 6 72.5

[top40]

This is an extension to an earlier post (on ?Our finals series starts now?)

Since 2004, from Round 15 onwards our home record stands at 17 games, 16 wins and 1 loss. The one loss was that tragic August night in 04 when the Kangaroos came back from 40 points down at 3/4time. Otherwise:

2004
R15 Adelaide 58-45 W S.C.G.
R18 Brisbane Lions 83-51 W S.C.G.
R19 Kangaroos 112-118 L S.C.G
R21 Essendon 110-90 W TS
EF West Coast 75-34 W TS

2005
R15 Geelong 105-51 W S.C.G.
R17 West Coast 88-67 W S.C.G
R20 Brisbane Lions 124-40 W TS
R21 Kangaroos 101-64 W S.C.G
SF Geelong 56-53 W S.C.G.

2006
R16 Richmond 101-53 W S.C.G.
R18 Essendon 116-73 W S.C.G
R21 Brisbane Lions 97-40 W TS
R22 Carlton 136-44 W S.C.G.
PF Fremantle 127-92 W TS

2007
R15 Carlton 162-100 W S.C.G.
R17 Richmond 136-72 S.C.G

None of the wins except Adelaide (R15 04) and Geelong (SF 05) were even close.

Yes, I know our away record isn?t as flash for the same period. Still, with the upcoming away venues in mind:

Manuka, (to play Melbourne, Round 18): Won 3 of the last 4 since 2004.

The Gabba,(to play Brisbane, Round 20): Also won 3 of the last 4 since 2003. Could have been 4 out 4 if Jason Ball had kicked straight in round 1 2004.

MCG: Won 7 of the last 9 since 2005,(to play Collingwood, Round 21). The two losses were both by a single point (Richmond round 13 2005, and West Coast Grand Final 2006)


In order of tough games for the rest of home and away season, here's my predictions:

1. Round 20 Brisbane. Boy, are they in form! However, as noted above, our recent Gabba record is good. We must stop Jonathan Brown and now it appears, Jared Brennan. Swans by 4 points.

2. Round 19 St Kilda. Ross Lyon's style for the Saints does not suit us, (a bit like the Crows). This will be a vital game for both teams. Also a big Telstra Stadium crowd never assists the Swans. Our above home record is the best thing going for us. Further, hopefully after the Tigers win, the 2007 night game curse is lifted. A very close game that goes our way this time. Swans by 7 points

3. Round 21 Collingwood. We have to be keener than the Magpie boys than what arose a few weeks ago at Telstra Stadium. That said, MCG at this time of year suits us. On their form against Brisbane last Saturday, it appears that like last season, the ?Arizona (pre season) magic? is wearing off for the Pies. Swans by 3 goals


4. Round 22 Hawthorn. Very good team the Hawks, but they're getting tired and overwhelmed. Its an afternoon game, (whereupon we have lost only one day game this year against Geelong). Further, memories of a win a few weeks ago, and the SCG venue will ensure victory by 5 goals.

5. Round 18 Melbourne. Should be OK. They're not familiar with Canberra, and its being playing in the afternoon. Swans by 6 goals.

Swans will finish 3rd behind the Cats and the Eagles

[j s]

My ladder predictor gives this result.....

 1 	Geelong 	22 	19 	 3 	 0 	2451 	1710 	76 	143.3
 7 	Sydney 	22 	14 	 8 	 0 	2072 	1821 	56 	113.7
 2 	Kangaroos 	22 	14 	 8 	 0 	2129 	2015 	56 	105.6
 6 	Collingwood 	22 	13 	 9 	 0 	2041 	2037 	52 	100.1
 8 	Essendon 	22 	13 	 9 	 0 	2226 	2267 	52 	 98.1
 9 	St Kilda 	22 	13 	 9 	 0 	1907 	1971 	52 	 96.7
 3 	Port Adel 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	2314 	2113 	48 	109.5
 4 	West Coast 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	2082 	1910 	48 	109.0
12 	Adelaide 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	1960 	1827 	48 	107.2
10 	W Bulldogs 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	2209 	2337 	48 	 94.5
 5 	Hawthorn 	22 	11 	11 	 0 	2052 	1922 	44 	106.7
13 	Fremantle 	22 	11 	11 	 0 	2174 	2187 	44 	 99.4
11 	Bris Lions 	22 	10 	11 	 1 	2089 	1939 	42 	107.7
15 	Melbourne 	22 	 4 	18 	 0 	1894 	2395 	16 	 79.0
14 	Carlton 	22 	 4 	18 	 0 	2168 	2772 	16 	 78.2
16 	Richmond 	22 	 1 	20 	 1 	1961 	2506 	 6 	 78.2

Note: I did not attempt to pick the margins - just let them default to 6pts.

No real upsets in my picks either (IMHO) though I will admit some bias.

[NMWBloods]

That seems a bit strange.

WC 1-4
Ess 4-1
Swans 5-0
'Roos 2-3
StK 4-1
PA 1-4
Adel 4-1

When I look to see what games teams win and lose, the bias is pretty obvious!

[sfan]

Geelong 22 18 3 1 2448 1713 74 142.9
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2100 1892 60 110.9
2 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2135 2009 60 106.2
6 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2053 2025 60 101.3
3 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2326 2101 56 110.7
7 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2066 1827 52 113.0
5 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2058 1916 48 107.4
8 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2220 2273 48 97.6

9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 1901 1977 48 96.1
11 Bris Lions 22 10 11 1 2089 1939 42 107.7
12 Adelaide 22 10 11 1 1951 1836 42 106.2
10 W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2197 2349 40 93.5
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2162 2199 36 98.3
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2174 2766 20 78.5
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1888 2401 12 78.6
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1961 2506 6 78.2

[ROK Lobster]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2445 1716 72 142.4
4 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2106 1886 64 111.6
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2332 2095 60 111.3
2 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2129 2015 56 105.6
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2047 2031 56 100.7
8 Essendon 22 13 9 0 2226 2267 52 98.1
9 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 1907 1971 52 96.7
11 Bris Lions 22 12 9 1 2101 1927 50 109.0

7 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2060 1833 48 112.3
5 Hawthorn 22 11 11 0 2052 1922 44 106.7
12 Adelaide 22 10 12 0 1948 1839 40 105.9
10 W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2197 2349 40 93.5

Oh dear!

[cruiser]

The way i work things out, our game against Collingwood is an 8 pointer that will decide whether we finish 4th and play Geelong in Antarctica in a QF or 5th and play St Kilda in an EF at Telstra Stadium. Maybe finishing 5th would be better than 4th? We've no chance of finishing 3rd.

[ROK Lobster]

The way i work things out, our game against Collingwood is an 8 pointer that will decide whether we finish 4th and play Geelong in Antarctica in a QF or 5th and play St Kilda in an EF at Telstra Stadium. Maybe finishing 5th would be better than 4th? We've no chance of finishing 3rd.

On current form I am not sure who anyone can seriously think that we will beat Brisbane at Brisbane. The Saints game and Collingwood are both 50/50's in my opinion. If we lose all three, I think we will miss the 8. To be safe, we need to win at least 2. If we win all 3, then we are a chance again.