Where will our Bloods finish by rd 22? Take the ladder predictor and let's discuss!!

[Damien]

Hoping the Top 4 opens up for us. Nothing can beat playing a first week final with the knowledge that worst case scenario sees us at home the following week.

I would be excited by the prospect of Geelong in Melbourne. A proven finals team over the past two years, versus a team who will enter the finals with massive expectations and bad memories of their last final against us

Could be fantasy stuff even getting to the top 4 (8 even), but I would go into a Geelong final with a fair bit of hope and confidence that we could tear a nervous Geelong apart.

[Hazcam]

That would be very interesting. We beat WCE by a point last year and Port Power in 2003 in an away qualifying final as well so we can do it.
Getting to the top 4 is the only hurdle and it's anyones guess where we'll finish.

On paper it looks to be a geelong v wce final as all the pundits are claiming but we'll see. Geelong would have a disappointing season if they didn't make the grand final. In all occasions they have won more than 12 straight (3 times) they have made the g/f on all of them and won 2.

[Hazcam]

As I mentioned previously, in my books the Swans will finish 6th.

Yeah I reckon 6th as well.
all of a sudden our last 4 games is pretty nightmarish

brisbane
st kilda
collingwood
hawthorn

all vying for top 4/8

[Hazcam]

This is an extension to an earlier post (on ?Our finals series starts now?)

Since 2004, from Round 15 onwards our home record stands at 17 games, 16 wins and 1 loss. The one loss was that tragic August night in 04 when the Kangaroos came back from 40 points down at 3/4time. Otherwise:

2004
R15 Adelaide 58-45 W S.C.G.
R18 Brisbane Lions 83-51 W S.C.G.
R19 Kangaroos 112-118 L S.C.G
R21 Essendon 110-90 W TS
EF West Coast 75-34 W TS

2005
R15 Geelong 105-51 W S.C.G.
R17 West Coast 88-67 W S.C.G
R20 Brisbane Lions 124-40 W TS
R21 Kangaroos 101-64 W S.C.G
SF Geelong 56-53 W S.C.G.

2006
R16 Richmond 101-53 W S.C.G.
R18 Essendon 116-73 W S.C.G
R21 Brisbane Lions 97-40 W TS
R22 Carlton 136-44 W S.C.G.
PF Fremantle 127-92 W TS

2007
R15 Carlton 162-100 W S.C.G.
R17 Richmond 136-72 S.C.G

None of the wins except Adelaide (R15 04) and Geelong (SF 05) were even close.

Yes, I know our away record isn?t as flash for the same period. Still, with the upcoming away venues in mind:

Manuka, (to play Melbourne, Round 18): Won 3 of the last 4 since 2004.

The Gabba,(to play Brisbane, Round 20): Also won 3 of the last 4 since 2003. Could have been 4 out 4 if Jason Ball had kicked straight in round 1 2004.

MCG: Won 7 of the last 9 since 2005,(to play Collingwood, Round 21). The two losses were both by a single point (Richmond round 13 2005, and West Coast Grand Final 2006)


In order of tough games for the rest of home and away season, here's my predictions:

1. Round 20 Brisbane. Boy, are they in form! However, as noted above, our recent Gabba record is good. We must stop Jonathan Brown and now it appears, Jared Brennan. Swans by 4 points.

2. Round 19 St Kilda. Ross Lyon's style for the Saints does not suit us, (a bit like the Crows). This will be a vital game for both teams. Also a big Telstra Stadium crowd never assists the Swans. Our above home record is the best thing going for us. Further, hopefully after the Tigers win, the 2007 night game curse is lifted. A very close game that goes our way this time. Swans by 7 points

3. Round 21 Collingwood. We have to be keener than the Magpie boys than what arose a few weeks ago at Telstra Stadium. That said, MCG at this time of year suits us. On their form against Brisbane last Saturday, it appears that like last season, the ?Arizona (pre season) magic? is wearing off for the Pies. Swans by 3 goals


4. Round 22 Hawthorn. Very good team the Hawks, but they're getting tired and overwhelmed. Its an afternoon game, (whereupon we have lost only one day game this year against Geelong). Further, memories of a win a few weeks ago, and the SCG venue will ensure victory by 5 goals.

5. Round 18 Melbourne. Should be OK. They're not familiar with Canberra, and its being playing in the afternoon. Swans by 6 goals.

Swans will finish 3rd behind the Cats and the Eagles

jeez you're very optimistic!
keep in mind that the swans are equally as likely to win less than 2 of the last 5 as they are in winning all 5. the big thing we have going for us is our impeccable "home stretch" form. Optimistically we should win 4 of the 5 although I have no idea who we'll lose that 1 game to. Brisbane @ home all of a sudden looms possibly the toughest of them all.

[ScottH]

Yeah I reckon 6th as well.
all of a sudden our last 4 games is pretty nightmarish

6th is probably the highest we could reasonably hope for. Anything higher would just be a bonus.

[Damien]

Most calculations I have done seem to get us to the 4 if we win all 5.

Put us in 5th/6th if we drop 1, and drop us out of the 8 if we lose 2.

Maybe I am just conveniently forgetting the past two years, but even with our slow starts, I don't remember it being so open with 5 rounds to go, in terms of how wildly the 8 can change.

[Hazcam]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2488 1673 72 148.7
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2112 1880 60 112.3
2 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2141 2003 60 106.8
3 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2338 2089 56 111.9
7 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2084 1809 52 115.2
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2047 2031 52 100.7
11 Bris Lions 22 12 9 1 2101 1927 50 109.0
5 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2058 1916 48 107.4

9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 1907 1971 48 96.7
8 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2208 2285 44 96.6
10 W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2173 2373 40 91.5
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1930 1857 36 103.9
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2162 2199 36 98.3
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1900 2389 20 79.5
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2168 2772 20 78.2
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1912 2555 10 74.8

doh!
we're playing the pies @ telstra
hahaha

ah man there's so many permutations involved this is going to be an interesting finish to the season. With the kangas, port, st kilda, brisbane and also essendon (for sheeds) coming into the fray

[Damien]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2488 1673 72 148.7
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2112 1880 60 112.3
2 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2141 2003 60 106.8
3 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2338 2089 56 111.9
7 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2084 1809 52 115.2
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2047 2031 52 100.7
11 Bris Lions 22 12 9 1 2101 1927 50 109.0
5 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2058 1916 48 107.4

9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 1907 1971 48 96.7
8 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2208 2285 44 96.6
10 W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2173 2373 40 91.5
12 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 1930 1857 36 103.9
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2162 2199 36 98.3
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1900 2389 20 79.5
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2168 2772 20 78.2
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1912 2555 10 74.8

doh!
we're playing the pies @ telstra
hahaha

ah man there's so many permutations involved this is going to be an interesting finish to the season. With the kangas, port, st kilda, brisbane and also essendon (for sheeds) coming into the fray

Hawthorn at Telstra actually, based on your ladder there! 5 V 8

That would mean Hawks at SCG, then Hawks at Telstra!

[Hazcam]

Hawthorn at Telstra actually, based on your ladder there! 5 V 8

That would mean Hawks at SCG, then Hawks at Telstra!

oops yeah your right sorry i was looking @ 5th and 6th.

yeah your right about the hawks 2 weeks in a row.

I wonder how we'll go if the AFL schedules us for a day final. the swans and night finals have been a given for a long time now but we play OK during the day as well.

bloody hell wont this weekend hurry up already.

[Damien]

I wonder how we'll go if the AFL schedules us for a day final. the swans and night finals have been a given for a long time now but we play OK during the day as well.
.

Our 2003 Qualifying Final was a Sunday final.

If we get a home final a lot of it will have to do with the NRL and which of the Telstra Stadium teams get home finals (Tigers, Bulldogs, Souths), because the first week of the NRL finals have to be played in a particular order.

Sunday will be available because Melbourne or Manly will be minor premiers and 1 V 8 is the Sunday game.

[swantastic]

1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2470 1691 68 146.0
2 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2135 2009 60 106.2
3 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2124 1769 56 120.0
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2134 1858 56 114.8
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2342 2085 52 112.3
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2065 2013 52 102.5
7 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2052 1922 48 106.7
8 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 1895 1983 48 95.5

9 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2209 2337 48 94.5
10 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1966 1821 44 107.9
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2202 2291 44 96.1
12 Bris Lions 22 10 11 1 2083 1945 42 107.0
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2190 2171 40 100.8
14 Carlton 22 6 16 0 2146 2794 24 76.8
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1838 2451 16 74.9
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1878 2589 6 72.5

[TheHood]

jeez you're very optimistic!
keep in mind that the swans are equally as likely to win less than 2 of the last 5 as they are in winning all 5. the big thing we have going for us is our impeccable "home stretch" form. Optimistically we should win 4 of the 5 although I have no idea who we'll lose that 1 game to. Brisbane @ home all of a sudden looms possibly the toughest of them all.

As a rule, I hate not taking it one game at a time, however we're all talking the old mid-week hypotheticals soooo...

I think the key to the Gabba victory will be around Barry Hall. Baz is a Gabba specialist and that was when Mal Michael was their gun full-back.

If Barry's form against Richmond is the start of seriously good form, then I think we can go unbeaten to the finals.

If there is a team that values that Top 4 position, then it's Sydney. Most others this year are just happy to be in the final 8.

That said, this is where a lot of good luck helps, the odd upset against a cellar dweller and that can make our job a bit easier and maybe a bit less stressful.

My nails have taken a severe nawing this season

[giant]

Can we make this a sticky or whatever you call it so I don't have to go looking for it every time I dare to dream?

Second place here we come!!

Or 7th.

Or 9th. Sigh.

[Bart]

I have it as: Win all: Finish 2nd; Lose at the Gabba only: Finish 6th

[Robbo]

I can't see us making the 4, our run home is very difficult.