Where will our Bloods finish by rd 22? Take the ladder predictor and let's discuss!!

[Hazcam]

I dont think we'll win the next 4 games. Although I might be wrong and they could make me look like a goose. With easy wins against freo, carlton richmond and melbourne, it's not great prep for the last 4 games because I think our standard has slipped.

Melbourne was a very tame opposition today and at one point we were up by 60 and really should have blown them out. Yes we won but the quality of opposition made it look like a training run. Not exactly the hard footy needed to face a red hot lions. St. Kilda could be a bogey team as well with their tall forwards.

Top 4 is up for grabs if we're good enough, but 6th is the most likely outcome.

[Matt79]

I think this match against St Kilda will tell us where we will finish.

Beat them and with momentum I reckon we will win the last 3 and finish in the top 4.

Lose to Saints and then two very tough away trips and the finals don't seem a certainty.

[Hazcam]

I think this match against St Kilda will tell us where we will finish.

Beat them and with momentum I reckon we will win the last 3 and finish in the top 4.

Lose to Saints and then two very tough away trips and the finals don't seem a certainty.

Yep and I bet St. Kilda will think they're a fair chance as well. Because of the sheer fact our % is 2nd best in the league, winning the last 4 (with results going our way) could mean a top 4 position. There are 6 teams vying for 3 top 4 positions and what makes it even more interesting is that some of these are playing eachother in the final 4 games so it should be a beauty.

But aside from all of that, can anyone really have a chance of beating Geelong? I mean seriously...

[573v30]

But aside from all of that, can anyone really have a chance of beating Geelong? I mean seriously...

That Freo kid said we'd lose to Geelong by 20 in the Grand Final. Let's hope he's half right.

[Bloody Hell]

We play noone in the next 4 games who we would be likely to meet in a GF...

[NMWBloods]

That Freo kid said we'd lose to Geelong by 20 in the Grand Final. Let's hope he's half right.

You want us to lose by 10...?

[reigning premier]

But aside from all of that, can anyone really have a chance of beating Geelong? I mean seriously...

Away from SS.... Yep. I reckon we can beat them on the MCG, no problem.

[Triple B]

Away from SS.... Yep. I reckon we can beat them on the MCG, no problem.

Not sure about 'no problem', but I'm willing to bet Geelong are hoping we are the one side who don't finish 4th after Rd 22.

[NMWBloods]

Not sure about 'no problem', but I'm willing to bet Geelong are hoping we are the one side who don't finish 4th after Rd 22.

Or maybe they hope we are as there will be extra incentive for them.

[DST]

But aside from all of that, can anyone really have a chance of beating Geelong? I mean seriously...

Yep, and the side is called Geelong.

If it was anyone else playing like that with the talent they have it would be a monty, but we are talking about Geelong here. Every time they win another game and get closer the finals the closer they come to imploding from the pressure the town and media put onto them.

I would like to get the on the "G" in the first round of the finals for a place in the Preliminary Final at home.

DST

[top40]

We have to take into account the fact that:

? The Swans have very healthy percentage at present, second to Geelong and 5 more than third placed Hawthorn.

? Teams such as Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, and West Coast are starting to wobble a bit. They are not winning games consistently now.

? Sydney has a recent fantastic end of season record

? The Gabba and MCG have in recent years shown to be happy hunting grounds for the Swans

I note with closer examination the following:

1. The Swans are luke warm favourites for 3 games: St Kilda; Collingwood and Hawthorn. In all three games they would pay about $1.70 (maybe $1.60 for the Hawks game).

2. History shows that since 1995, two teams, (Adelaide in 1997 when they won the comp, and Collingwood in 2002, when they just missed out on a flag), were able to win 13 games and still make the 4. The way results are going right now, and allowing the Swans super percentage, 13 wins may well be enough to make top 4.

3. Focusing on the St Kilda and Hawthorn games, the Swans' post round 14 Home game record, (including finals), since 2004, stands at 16 wins and just 1 loss, (being by two points). 14 of those 16 wins were very comfortable victories.

4. Focusing on the Brisbane game, (whereupon we are I believe the underdogs), our recent Gabba record is 3 wins and 1 loss. The one loss being when Jason Ball missed a fairly easy winning shot in front close to the final siren. Indeed we were able to win in 2003 when the Lions were the Premiers, present and immediately in the future. In 2005 when we won, the Lions had played straight Grand Finals.

5. Focusing on the Collingwood game, our recent MCG record is 7 wins and 2 losses. Both losses were by a single point. Since 1999 the post Round 14 overall MCG record stands at 10 wins and 3 losses. Our post round 14 Home and Away record at the G for the same period is 8 wins and 1 loss.

[Missy]

Reading that post gave my goosebumps. I think its the first time Ive really let myself get excited all season!

[Jewels]

We have to take into account the fact that:

? The Swans have very healthy percentage at present, second to Geelong and 5 more than third placed Hawthorn.

? Teams such as Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, and West Coast are starting to wobble a bit. They are not winning games consistently now.

? Sydney has a recent fantastic end of season record

? The Gabba and MCG have in recent years shown to be happy hunting grounds for the Swans

I note with closer examination the following:

1. The Swans are luke warm favourites for 3 games: St Kilda; Collingwood and Hawthorn. In all three games they would pay about $1.70 (maybe $1.60 for the Hawks game).

2. History shows that since 1995, two teams, (Adelaide in 1997 when they won the comp, and Collingwood in 2002, when they just missed out on a flag), were able to win 13 games and still make the 4. The way results are going right now, and allowing the Swans super percentage, 13 wins may well be enough to make top 4.

3. Focusing on the St Kilda and Hawthorn games, the Swans' post round 14 Home game record, (including finals), since 2004, stands at 16 wins and just 1 loss, (being by two points). 14 of those 16 wins were very comfortable victories.

4. Focusing on the Brisbane game, (whereupon we are I believe the underdogs), our recent Gabba record is 3 wins and 1 loss. The one loss being when Jason Ball missed a fairly easy winning shot in front close to the final siren. Indeed we were able to win in 2003 when the Lions were the Premiers, present and immediately in the future. In 2005 when we won, the Lions had played straight Grand Finals.

5. Focusing on the Collingwood game, our recent MCG record is 7 wins and 2 losses. Both losses were by a single point. Since 1999 the post Round 14 overall MCG record stands at 10 wins and 3 losses. Our post round 14 Home and Away record at the G for the same period is 8 wins and 1 loss.

Excellent post, well done top40! What an enjoyable read. No doubt, the naysayers will be on here soon enough refuting every wonderful point you've made, but up until then, I like Missy, am allowing myself to get very excited!

[reigning premier]

Some cracking analysis..... Well done!

But given current form, I still think that the lions might just snap our streak at the Gabba and be a right fly in our finals ointment!!

[top40]

[QUOTE=top40;324179]We have to take into account the fact that:

"The Swans are luke warm favourites for 3 games: St Kilda; Collingwood and Hawthorn. In all three games they would pay about $1.70 (maybe $1.60 for the Hawks game). "


Seems the bookies are more confident than me for the Saints game. We are presently $1.35 to St Kilda's $2.90. In my view, (noting a terrible big crowd record at Telstra Stadium, as well as our poor night record this year), it's much, much closer. I should also note that Ross Lyons went to Canberra on the weekend to closely watch the Swans in action. Still, the key for St Kilda is Riewoldt. I assume Craig Bolton will be on him. If he Bolton matches his Richo/Tigers performance from the weekend before last, we are half way there.