Where will our Bloods finish by rd 22? Take the ladder predictor and let's discuss!!

[ScottH]

You would have gone for the physically playing with themselves...hey? ? ? (I feel like an 8yo)...

Bloody Hell!

[Bloody Hell]

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

Absolute worst case scenario, we finish 11th...providing the Crows and Lions draw next week.

1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2490 1661 68 149.9
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2290 2052 56 111.5
4 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0 2077 1847 52 112.4
3 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2118 1919 52 110.3
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2082 1975 52 105.4
5 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2018 2073 52 97.3
8 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1880 1937 50 97.0
11 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2174 2337 48 93.0

9 Bris Lions 22 10 9 3 2026 1851 46 109.4
10 Adelaide 22 11 10 1 1904 1774 46 107.3
7 Sydney 22 11 10 1 1914 1828 46 104.7
12 W Bulldogs 22 11 10 1 2251 2261 46 99.5
13 Fremantle 22 11 11 0 2231 2190 44 101.8
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1866 2366 20 78.8
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2174 2816 16 77.2
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1941 2549 10 76.1

[Bloody Hell]

Absolute best case scenario - we finish 2nd.

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2496 1655 72 150.8
7 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2042 1700 54 120.1
2 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2284 2058 52 110.9
3 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2118 1919 52 110.3
9 Bris Lions 22 11 9 2 2029 1848 48 109.7
4 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2002 1922 48 104.1
6 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2029 2028 48 100.0
5 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2012 2079 48 96.7

12 W Bulldogs 22 11 10 1 2251 2261 46 99.5
8 St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1874 1943 46 96.4
10 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1901 1777 44 106.9
13 Fremantle 22 11 11 0 2231 2190 44 101.8
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1866 2366 20 78.8
15 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2180 2810 20 77.5
16 Richmond 22 4 17 1 1953 2537 18 76.9

[Bloody Hell]

Likely - 7th. 1 win, 1 loss.

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2502 1649 76 151.7
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2130 1907 60 111.6
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2083 1841 56 113.1
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2290 2052 56 111.5
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2071 2020 56 102.5
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2035 2022 52 100.6
7 Sydney 22 12 9 1 2014 1728 50 116.5
8 St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1874 1943 46 96.4

9 Bris Lions 22 10 10 2 2023 1854 44 109.1
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5
10 Adelaide 22 10 12 0 1895 1783 40 106.2
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2225 2196 40 101.3
12 W Bulldogs 22 9 12 1 2145 2367 38 90.6
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1866 2366 20 78.8
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2174 2816 16 77.2
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1941 2549 10 76.1

[shaun..]

What would the results have to be for that BH?

The likely scenario, as has been mentioned:
- Kangas lose a game (probably against WB) or
- PA lose both of their games
with the Swans finishing 4th

[NMWBloods]

I think 6th is likely.

[shaun..]

I think 6th is likely.

A loss against Magpies or Hawks?
If we win both and other results don't go our way we'll finish as high as 5th

[Bloody Hell]

What would the results have to be for that BH?

The likely scenario, as has been mentioned:
- Kangas lose a game (probably against WB) or
- PA lose both of their games
with the Swans finishing 4th

This is the most likely scenario.

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2502 1649 76 151.7
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2130 1907 60 111.6
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2290 2052 56 111.5
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2071 2020 56 102.5
7 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2020 1722 54 117.3
4 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0 2077 1847 52 112.4
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2035 2022 52 100.6
8 St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1874 1943 46 96.4

9 Bris Lions 22 10 10 2 2023 1854 44 109.1
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5
10 Adelaide 22 10 12 0 1895 1783 40 106.2
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2225 2196 40 101.3
12 W Bulldogs 22 9 12 1 2145 2367 38 90.6
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1866 2366 20 78.8
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2174 2816 16 77.2
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1941 2549 10 76.1

Swans win both games.
Port lose to Geelong.
Kangas win both games.

Not 100% on the Swans beating the Hawks though.

[573v30]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2520 1631 76 154.5
3 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2136 1901 56 112.3
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2284 2058 56 110.9
7 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2032 1710 54 118.8
4 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0 2077 1847 52 112.4
5 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2065 2026 52 101.9
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2035 2022 52 100.6
8 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1892 1925 50 98.2

10 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1901 1777 44 106.9
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5
12 W Bulldogs 22 10 11 1 2151 2361 42 91.1
9 Bris Lions 22 9 11 2 2005 1872 40 107.1
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2231 2190 40 101.8
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1860 2372 20 78.4
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2162 2828 16 76.4
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1917 2573 10 74.5

That'll happen if we win both games and Kangas lose against the Bulldogs.

[NMWBloods]

A loss against Magpies or Hawks?
If we win both and other results don't go our way we'll finish as high as 5th

5th then - I think the likely result is two wins.

[Bloody Hell]

What would the results have to be for that BH?

The likely scenario, as has been mentioned:
- Kangas lose a game (probably against WB) or
- PA lose both of their games
with the Swans finishing 4th

The worst case scenario is extremely unlikely. We would be in 11th on percentage only, and would have to lose both remaining games by 100.

The best case is more realistic, but relies on WC and Port etc to lose their remaining games...not impossible considering the remaining draw.

Kangas could lose...but not likely.

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2502 1649 76 151.7
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2130 1907 60 111.6
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2083 1841 56 113.1
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2290 2052 56 111.5
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2071 2020 56 102.5
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2041 2016 56 101.2
7 Sydney 22 11 10 1 2008 1734 46 115.8
8 St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1874 1943 46 96.4

9 Bris Lions 22 10 10 2 2023 1854 44 109.1
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5

If we lose both - it will most likely look like this.

If Brisbane can beat Geelong @ Gabba (not wholely unlikely) we'd finish 8th.
As well as this if Essendon beat WC (which some consider a possibility) we'd finish 9th.
Basically our fate would rest on other results.

[SimonH]

You have to like any comp where a team could still finish 2nd or 11th with 2 rounds to go.

While the draw was absolutely useless for the optimists (i.e. those gunning for the top 4), it did have some virtue for the pessimists (who are only concerned about us making the 8). It counted as a win between us and the Saints. And the Saints are one of the teams who would have to get over the top of us, for us to miss the 8.

PS The way that other results have panned out, a draw last night was surprisingly poor value for Brisbane. At the time the commentators were saying that it was fantastic with their good percentage, but when you break it down as against the teams they are/were competing with:

• Freo and the Bulldogs have dealt themselves out of the game anyway.
• Essendon weren't a realistic threat anyway IMO with a must-win final-round away game against WCE.
• Brisbane have to beat Adelaide in a head-to-head next week, which would have taken them ahead of the Crows regardless.
• The Blions are now out of step with St Kilda (who have 1 draw and a vastly inferior percentage), so as between the Blions and Saints it might as well have been a loss.
• The only utility for the Blions' finals hopes in the draw is if one of Hawthorn, the Roos, Collingwood or Sydney lose both of their remaining games, in the hope that if the Blions win both of theirs, they might be able to make the 8 even without getting ahead of the Saints.

[Hazcam]

Assuming collingwood beat the crows and the eagles beat essendon AND we lose to hawthorn: we play collingwood @ mcg

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2506 1652 72 151.6
2 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2300 2050 60 112.1
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2133 1908 60 111.7
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2137 1805 56 118.3
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2141 1990 56 107.5
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2045 1989 56 102.8
7 Sydney 22 11 10 1 1981 1738 46 113.9
9 St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1875 1946 46 96.3

Assuming we lose to the hawks and the crows win: we play roos

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2506 1652 72 151.6
2 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2300 2050 60 112.1
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2133 1908 60 111.7
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2137 1805 56 118.3
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2141 1990 56 107.5
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2033 2001 52 101.5
8 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1890 1734 48 108.9
7 Sydney 22 11 10 1 1981 1738 46 113.9

Assuming the bombers win their next 2 and we lose to the hawks: we miss out

I think no matter which way you look at it, we will play either the pies or roos away and they are both tough assignments.

I also dont see how we can beat the hawks considering their thrashing of the doggies today by 84 points. Lance Franklin kicked 2 goals 11 behinds!

Sydney needs a revamp of their midfield because Goodes is the only star in there. The backline is nothing without tadgh and leo (and LRT funnily enough).

I find it highly unlikely we are a finals hardened side that we were in '05 and '06.

[dendol]

Bombers are down 6 goals halfway through the 4th. We've limped into the finals

[Gary]

I don't care where we finish...unless we get both defenders back & give Brennan a one way ticket to Siberia we haven't got a chance. Our position is a realistic reflection of how we have played & our lack of depth...plus our woeful selection policies
It's still better to play finals than not at all but we are dead in the water for this year & probably the next 2/3 as players retire.