Roos warns of Sydney "catastrophe"

[Cheer Squad]

The Swans have failed to generate real interest in the West and NEVER will, for a range of geographic and psychographic reasons.

I think you're overestimating the level of untapped demand for another AFL club in Sydney.

The Swans have generated enough interest in Sydney's west for the Homebush superpass to become a valuable marketing tool and source of revenue. The club will be worried that people who've purchased the superpass might be tempted to switch allegiance to the new western Sydney team.

That's the real risk with the new team - it will undermine and weaken the Swans, and dilute support for the code in Sydney.

Put simply, the AFL is betting there's a significant market in western Sydney that likes the code, but doesn't like the Swans. I can't see any evidence for it.

[Bear]

I think you're overestimating the level of untapped demand for another AFL club in Sydney.

The Swans have generated enough interest in Sydney's west for the Homebush superpass to become a valuable marketing tool and source of revenue. The club will be worried that people who've purchased the superpass might be tempted to switch allegiance to the new western Sydney team.

That's the real risk with the new team - it will undermine and weaken the Swans, and dilute support for the code in Sydney.

Put simply, the AFL is betting there's a significant market in western Sydney that likes the code, but doesn't like the Swans. I can't see any evidence for it.

But they will never play a meaningful role in the Swans - coming week-in week-out to the SCG.

They can do that with their own team and grow from nothing to something considerable like the Swans have. We might lose a few there but...

We have Sutherland and northern beaches to mine now in terms of MUCH MORE FOCUSSED development, as well as Wollongong and Central Coast. We are currently spread too thinly in terms of our clinics etc across Greater Sydney and we can grow our base from areas who can more easily access our main home ground.

The WSFC will do the same with their turf. Blacktoen, Parra, Penrith, Hills, ACT, etc.

A win-win-win for the SSFC, WSFC and the game.

Don't forget, this is a 10-20 year project not expected to go gangbusters on day 1.
We will all be better off in the medium/long term.

[SwansFan1972]

But they will never play a meaningful role in the Swans - coming week-in week-out to the SCG.

They can do that with their own team and grow from nothing to something considerable like the Swans have. We might lose a few there but...

We have Sutherland and northern beaches to mine now in terms of MUCH MORE FOCUSSED development, as well as Wollongong and Central Coast. We are currently spread too thinly in terms of our clinics etc across Greater Sydney and we can grow our base from areas who can more easily access our main home ground.

The WSFC will do the same with their turf. Blacktoen, Parra, Penrith, Hills, ACT, etc.

A win-win-win for the SSFC, WSFC and the game.

Don't forget, this is a 10-20 year project not expected to go gangbusters on day 1.
We will all be better off in the medium/long term.

Of course the game should grow - but the question remains as to whether it will via WSFC.

Your passion is admirable - but I'm struggling to follow some aspects of your argument. The Swans will be expected to happily relinquish western Sydney (hardly a given) and then spread their focussed development on the "small" geographic area from Wollongong to the Central Coast! I can foresee some thin spreading there!

As for easy access to the ground - if people want the product, they'll go to it. I don't buy this silvertail v westie line - for AFL anyway - if there are AFL fans out west, and they want to see AFL - then they would go to Swans games. Where else are they going to go? The truth is these great numbers of fans don't exist. Or perhaps they do - in the same fantasy land the Swans thought harboured an additional 20,000 or so prospective members - which were supposed to jump on board this year when the membership package was re-vamped. The evidence on those beliefs is pretty overwhelming!

You also make it sound like people from the west need a sherpa and a three day pack to make it to the SCG - bollocks!

The issue is wanting the product - and there isn't much evidence to suggest that there are enough people out there wanting it. The Melbourne clubs inherit their supporters from the crib - even after 25 years in Sydney, the Swans struggle to do that.

Force it down west Sydney's throat if you like - for 10, 20, 50 years or however long it takes - but can you really see the AFL stumping up cash for that amount of time? Assuming of course the executives of the AFL remain sympathetic AND in a financial position to keep doing it - all it takes is a Melbourne centric CEO and/or Chairman, and WSFC will be left to swing in the breeze on its own.

And one other not insignificant consideration is the large swathe of league people out west who would die before going to watch "aerial ping-pong" or "the enemy". They are the biggest concern - and will definitely pass on their loathing to their babes!

Anyway, we are going to find out one way or the other who is right and who is wrong. For the sake of the game, I'd be happy to be on the wrong side of the ledger, but then, I'd like to be able to believe in Santa Claus and the Toothfairy too. We don't always get what we want, however.

[Cheer Squad]

But they will never play a meaningful role in the Swans - coming week-in week-out to the SCG.

They can do that with their own team and grow from nothing to something considerable like the Swans have. We might lose a few there but...

We have Sutherland and northern beaches to mine now in terms of MUCH MORE FOCUSSED development, as well as Wollongong and Central Coast. We are currently spread too thinly in terms of our clinics etc across Greater Sydney and we can grow our base from areas who can more easily access our main home ground.

The WSFC will do the same with their turf. Blacktoen, Parra, Penrith, Hills, ACT, etc.

Are you serious?

How can you dismiss the superpass people as having no value to the Swans? People like them were overwhelmingly the ones contributing to the 60,000-70,000 plus crowds we attracted to our games not so long ago.

Why do you think the club spent so much time and effort identifying who these people were and how they might make a committment to the club? They're a valuable source of revenue and potential membership growth. Do you seriously believe the club is going to sit back and watch them go to the new team?

You're dreaming if you think it's a good idea for the club to retreat to the eastern suburbs, lower north shore, the Shire, Central Coast etc.

[Bear]

Your passion is admirable - but I'm struggling to follow some aspects of your argument. The Swans will be expected to happily relinquish western Sydney (hardly a given) and then spread their focussed development on the "small" geographic area from Wollongong to the Central Coast! I can foresee some thin spreading there!

I think the confusion is in your arguments.

I said the Swans can focus firstly on northern and southern sydney areas, and then even the Gong and Hunter. At the moment they are doing ALL this PLUS the West. So we are biting off way to much and not doing it well enough.

It is fanciful to suggest that the Swans have any real hold on WS now, so how can they "relinquish" something you don't have?
Then you later argue that WS will not buy into AFL!??

So which way is it - the Swans have WS and won't relinquish it or the AFL will struggle to have a presence because of rugby league Dads?

Regardless, most parents who just want their kids to enjoy their sport, and are actually looking for alternatives to RL We just want and need a decent share of the pie - of which we have very little now. 25% in 20 years would be good and very achievable.

As for easy access to the ground - if people want the product, they'll go to it.

No they won't. Sydneysiders are generally territorial and don't like crossing bridges etc. The public transport and roads here contribute to this strong mentality. Convenience is very important.

Force it down west Sydney's throat if you like - for 10, 20, 50 years or however long it takes - but can you really see the AFL stumping up cash for that amount of time? Assuming of course the executives of the AFL remain sympathetic AND in a financial position to keep doing it - all it takes is a Melbourne centric CEO and/or Chairman, and WSFC will be left to swing in the breeze on its own.

The AFL is too smart for that, they know the relatively tiny investment they make in the Swans is repayed many times over in TV and sponsorship, etc.
Giving the 2 million in Western Sydney a relevant product will have a similar if not bigger financial boost to the game.

And one other not insignificant consideration is the large swathe of league people out west who would die before going to watch "aerial ping-pong" or "the enemy". They are the biggest concern - and will definitely pass on their loathing to their babes!

A gross overstatement in terms of the numbers of parents who force their kids to follow one sport. Programs like Auskick and the RL game shooting itself in the foot will more than grow the game in spite of a small minoriity of pushy parents. Plus the fact that many parents are looking for alternatives to RL!

Anyway, we are going to find out one way or the other who is right and who is wrong. For the sake of the game, I'd be happy to be on the wrong side of the ledger, but then, I'd like to be able to believe in Santa Claus and the Toothfairy too. We don't always get what we want, however.

Don't worry, Santa's coming to town.

[Yakety_Yak]

The false impression is that swans appeal to the "eastern chardonnay set"

Yes they do! because SCG is accessible.....and "they" have spendable buck$.. but so do many who are not from the North or East!

The planned put it in "their backyard" plan replica.... is flawed.

Swans can get 25K attendance sometimes occasionally 60K but many many of them already come from the West...check out ANZ train lines and see for yourself!

They come adorned in red and white!!!!!!!... once they have passion the extra hour or whatever on the train is nothing.... compared to thire posters on kids bedroom walls, and the fond memories!


Absolute BS!.... no way there are 20,000 people desperately wanting to follow an AFL club in WS.... so long as they aren't Red and white and they play in th boon docks even if that is the ghostly Homebush wasteland

NO WAY! ..... bookmarked will check back in 10yrs

[1%ers]

Its a shame Roo's needs to comment on umpires to deflect from poor recruitment decisions and an inability to control Hall.

Playing more exciting footy would bring more people to games, and more enjoyment for supporters.

Finishing lower on the ladder will loose supporters, what rubbish if Swans finished a position higher or lower would have less impact rather than how we go about it.

[1%ers]

Bear you're on the money.
Swans keep wasting resources on trying to win over the West, rather than concentrating on thier demographic, the Eastern suburbs, Northern Beaches & maybe the Central Coast.

Plus they need youth & excitement.

Car'n the Western Pioneers!

[Nico]

What is the demographic of the Western Suburbs of Sydney?

[1%ers]

Way off the mark!

Anyone who thinks that having a team other than the swans in that equation would make a difference is seriously deluded.

The people out west are committed rugby league fans, and they just aren't interested in embracing AFL. The reasons don't really matter - ultimately, the AFL is attempting to reverse market the product. "Every signal is telling us the demand isn't there, but, dammit, we know best and we're going to give you the product anyway!"

Western Sydney will never follow the East.
The West needs its own team.
A Western Sydney side will more than double the radio & newspaper coverage, with a game in town each week to cover AFL news.
The People in the West enjoy participating in good local products available.
If AFL is a great local product fans will be attracted.
As locals become the next superstars people will take notice.
I can't wait until Western Sydney has their own Lenny Hayes or Kieren Jack running around, now that will be a great time, when the local kids become the local sporting heroes

[stellation]

What is the demographic of the Western Suburbs of Sydney?

Bigger Frankston.

[1%ers]

Totally serious

Are you serious?

How can you dismiss the superpass people as having no value to the Swans? People like them were overwhelmingly the ones contributing to the 60,000-70,000 plus crowds we attracted to our games not so long ago.

Why do you think the club spent so much time and effort identifying who these people were and how they might make a committment to the club? They're a valuable source of revenue and potential membership growth. Do you seriously believe the club is going to sit back and watch them go to the new team?

You're dreaming if you think it's a good idea for the club to retreat to the eastern suburbs, lower north shore, the Shire, Central Coast etc.

The Western Blue collar does not dance to the Eastern White collar's and Geoffrey Eddleston.

The Swans prefer to play at Moore Park, they have new club rooms and facilities there, the Swans are Eastern suburbs based.
Swan's will not be retreating, its concentrating on your demographic.

The large crowds were attracted to an exciting product, not the Swans else they would still attend.

The large Western Sydney population need thier own Western based team to support.

[1%ers]

Not being grouped with the Eastern suburbs, Northern Beaches yuppies

[Cheer Squad]

I think the confusion is in your arguments.

I said the Swans can focus firstly on northern and southern sydney areas, and then even the Gong and Hunter. At the moment they are doing ALL this PLUS the West. So we are biting off way to much and not doing it well enough.

It is fanciful to suggest that the Swans have any real hold on WS now, so how can they "relinquish" something you don't have?
Then you later argue that WS will not buy into AFL!??

So which way is it - the Swans have WS and won't relinquish it or the AFL will struggle to have a presence because of rugby league Dads?

There's no confusion in my arguments at all. I'm not saying the Swans own the west or that they ever will.

Did it ever occur to you that the Swans started looking west for new members because they couldn't find any more in the eastern suburbs etc? They've done very well with the superpass concept, because they've found a way to get 10,000 people in a non-traditonal market to become involved with the club and code. Or do you think these people are just generic AFL supporters with no emotional attachment to the Swans?

Do you really think there's another 10,000 or so people - on top of the 5,000 who dropped their membership this year - in the eastern suburbs just waiting to become full club members? If you do, you'd better get in touch with the marketing department and tell them where they are. They'd love to hear from you.

[Cheer Squad]

The Swans are the silvertails from the East to the West.

No, they're not. You're completely misreading the niche that AFL occupies in Sydney - it's overwhelmingly percevied as a "foreign" code. Trying to link perceptions of the Swans to the silvertails vs fibro thing is either delusional or wishful thinking.