Mitchell watch

[Mug Punter]

Looking at who is available in this draft and what we currently have on our list, I wouldn't mind trading Mitchell to Carlton for their 1st rounder, currently pick 5 and one of their 3rd rounders in the 40s, which could be used to upgrade one of other other picks or used as part of a deal with another academy club to get someone like Jack Leslie or Jeremy Finlayson.

Heeney, Mills, Hewett and Jones all should be part of our midfield going forward and we have to make room by moving on someone. This is no knock on Mitchell, who I think is a very good player, but we simply have too many quality inside midfielders and should be looking to rebalance the list toward outside runners and KPPs.

I can't see Carlton giving that up. If their offer is that high then they would be tempted to go to the PSD but that would be a risk as all the clubs below them would be very tempted to have a crack at Tom.

The best I could see is that we'd get their first rounder next year which, based on their improvement, could be 9 - 12 which is probably fair and it could well suit us to have two first rounders next year and give our rookie upgrades this year a chance. Carlton need their Pick 5-7 this year. Their spine is pretty much set for the next decade and they need mids. Tom plus an early first rounder plus Gibbes, Murphy and Cripps would give them a midfield group to match and they could well be prepared to go light at the 2017 draft.

I'd play hardball on this one. A second rounder for us aint worth a lot and we'd send a message out re our stance.

[Ludwig]

I can't see Carlton giving that up. If their offer is that high then they would be tempted to go to the PSD but that would be a risk as all the clubs below them would be very tempted to have a crack at Tom.

The best I could see is that we'd get their first rounder next year which, based on their improvement, could be 9 - 12 which is probably fair and it could well suit us to have two first rounders next year and give our rookie upgrades this year a chance. Carlton need their Pick 5-7 this year. Their spine is pretty much set for the next decade and they need mids. Tom plus an early first rounder plus Gibbes, Murphy and Cripps would give them a midfield group to match and they could well be prepared to go light at the 2017 draft.

I'd play hardball on this one. A second rounder for us aint worth a lot and we'd send a message out re our stance.

We really don't know what the state of play is concerning Tom. It's just speculation, and Carlton has been the club most closely linked to a possible trade. It's hard to say what any club would offer. But if he goes to the PSD, he'll surely get picked up by Essendon. I don't think that will happen (for a number of reasons not worth listing here).

I was just trying to assess Tom's market value. I made the comparison to Treloar because we have a recent transaction to compare to. I also checked out the 2011 draft to see how Tom would rank now against his draft year peers. Chad Wingard would be the top pick in hindsight. Then Tom probably sits in a group of players just behind Chad, which would include Coniglio, Haynes, Toby Greene, Devon Smith and Taylor Adams. If that draft was not compromised, you wouldn't be upset taking Tom between pick 2 and 5. I think he was rated by many as the 3rd best player going into the draft.

There is great value in a proven player at AFL level when comparing to a draft prospect that is rated to perhaps be as good. How does Tom Mitchell compare to Jake Carlisle? It's hard to compare because they play different positions as well as the suspension risk factor at the time of he trade. But Carlisle went for pick 5.

I don't think Carlton's 1st rounder for next year is all that bad. I think they'll stay in the bottom 8. Essendon and perhaps GC will surpass them and they could even finish lower than this year.

[CureTheSane]

My question is - Will Mitchell be playing as well without the other stellar midfielders absorbing other quality opponents?

[liz]

We really don't know what the state of play is concerning Tom. It's just speculation, and Carlton has been the club most closely linked to a possible trade. It's hard to say what any club would offer. But if he goes to the PSD, he'll surely get picked up by Essendon. I don't think that will happen (for a number of reasons not worth listing here).

I was just trying to assess Tom's market value. I made the comparison to Treloar because we have a recent transaction to compare to. I also checked out the 2011 draft to see how Tom would rank now against his draft year peers. Chad Wingard would be the top pick in hindsight. Then Tom probably sits in a group of players just behind Chad, which would include Coniglio, Haynes, Toby Greene, Devon Smith and Taylor Adams. If that draft was not compromised, you wouldn't be upset taking Tom between pick 2 and 5. I think he was rated by many as the 3rd best player going into the draft.

There is great value in a proven player at AFL level when comparing to a draft prospect that is rated to perhaps be as good. How does Tom Mitchell compare to Jake Carlisle? It's hard to compare because they play different positions as well as the suspension risk factor at the time of he trade. But Carlisle went for pick 5.

I don't think Carlton's 1st rounder for next year is all that bad. I think they'll stay in the bottom 8. Essendon and perhaps GC will surpass them and they could even finish lower than this year.

Carlisle is a tall. Even semi-decent talls (and his best is very good, albeit he's moody and inconsistent) are more highly valued than midfielders because they are much rarer.

As a midfielder, Tom is a quality part of a team but he's not quick, his skills are "just reasonable" and he's not particularly tall. The most highly sought after / rated mids tend to have at least one attribute that makes them stand out. Often this is line breaking pace (Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett) or size (Fyfe, plus Bontempelli and Cripps as up and comers). Treloar isn't quite in Dangerfield or Judd's class pace wise, but he is a line breaker. This tends to mask his weaknesses, such as the fact he's a bit of a one-way player. Clubs will always reckon they can train a player to be better defensively, but you can't train pace.

[Ludwig]

Carlisle is a tall. Even semi-decent talls (and his best is very good, albeit he's moody and inconsistent) are more highly valued than midfielders because they are much rarer.

As a midfielder, Tom is a quality part of a team but he's not quick, his skills are "just reasonable" and he's not particularly tall. The most highly sought after / rated mids tend to have at least one attribute that makes them stand out. Often this is line breaking pace (Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett) or size (Fyfe, plus Bontempelli and Cripps as up and comers). Treloar isn't quite in Dangerfield or Judd's class pace wise, but he is a line breaker. This tends to mask his weaknesses, such as the fact he's a bit of a one-way player. Clubs will always reckon they can train a player to be better defensively, but you can't train pace.

I actually agree with you on your assessment of Tom. You could probably find that I've said similar things about him myself. What I find most interesting is that over the past few years I've found myself on the conservative side assessing Tom's value, but most of the comments about Tom on RWO have been glowing. Now that there's speculation that he might be off to another club, the forum consensus seems to be playing down his value.

Getting back to the 2011 draft, I don't think there would be much argument about Wingard being the best of the lot. But I wonder where Tom would rank against, Coniglio, Devon Smith, Toby Greene, Haynes, Dom Tyson, Taylor Adams and Brandon Ellis, to name a number of the more highly rated draftees from that year. I'd probably put Coniglio at the top of the list, followed by Mitchell. Their stats this year are nearly identical.

So what is one of the top 5 players in his draft year worth 5 years hence? I think it's a fair question and should help point to what he is worth in a trade.

[liz]

I believe clubs are always of the hope that they are about to draft the next superstar. Undrafted players' attributes tend to be overplayed because they may prove to be that star. Great players can be found at any point in the draft but, not unreasonably, clubs assess that they stand a better chance of unearthing one with an early draft pick than a later one. That leads clubs to overrate the top handful of draft picks over a player who is proven to be a very solid AFL player but is sufficiently exposed to suggest he's not going to be an out and out match winner. I don't necessarily agree with this relative valuation - past history suggests that the chance of unearthing a player with, say, a top 5 draft pick that is significantly better than Mitchell isn't that high - less than 50%, I reckon. Probably significantly lower than 50%. But humans don't cope well with making rational decisions about probabilities even when the data is pretty convincing. They will tell themselves that picking a player is about their skill in assessment and will ignore the luck factor that is evident in assessments of past drafts.

A more charitable interpretation might be that the value of unearthing the next Ablett, Fyfe or Franklin is so great that even if clubs understand that their chances of doing so are very small, they still want that opportunity - ie a utility based assessment. Of course, that only one of those three players required a top five draft pick to obtain is beside the point! So is the fact that Mitchell would quite possibly have been taken with a top five draft pick had he been available on the open market.

[royboy42]

t seems to me that that Tom is not a great kick, although his set shots seem adequate. Strong marking is not part of his package, and as a small mid extractor that's fine with me.
His strengths are his vision , in knowing where everyone is around him, especially the man in the clear who can get the ball forward; his ability to get the ball in heavily contested situations, and, most importantly his accuracy and speed by hand. The number of times the ball spends a second in Mitchell's hands before being despatched to a team mate in clearing position reflects his value to us.
Diesel without the sly dirty bits.

[swansrob]

This article says Tom will re-sign, so we can probably close this thread now
Burning questions: Your club's big issues for the rest of 2016 - AFL.com.au

[YvonneH]

This article says Tom will re-sign, so we can probably close this thread now
Burning questions: Your club's big issues for the rest of 2016 - AFL.com.au

Not until he actually re-signs.

[CureTheSane]

I like Mitchell. I think the Swans have put a lot in to him, and made him what he is. To a degree I see him as the Bjorn Borg (had the skills trained into him) type rather than the McEnroe type (full of natural talent)
But if we had to lose one of him, Parker, Kennedy or Hannebery, it would be Mitchell - particularly if we can bring someone in who adds something different to the team.

I'd suggest that Richards and McVeigh retire
Derickx delisted
Other trade bait MAY be Reid, McGlynn and a couple of reserves players who haven't broken in to the side and might ask to leave to get a gig.

Could be an interesting end of year...

[Doctor]

He'll stay. His agent is just waiting for the new cap arrangements to ensure he gets the best deal he can for his client.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Not suprising that Hawks are coming hard for Tom.

Reported last night on Channel 7 Melbourne. If you have seen them this year they have flogged in contested footy and need a inside mid badly...

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

[kilroy]

Hawks will be gifted Tom and the AFL will then reward the hawks for an amazing signing that they will allow hawks to then pick a top 3 player from each bottom 4 team.

[swansrob]

I like Mitchell. I think the Swans have put a lot in to him, and made him what he is. To a degree I see him as the Bjorn Borg (had the skills trained into him) type rather than the McEnroe type (full of natural talent)
But if we had to lose one of him, Parker, Kennedy or Hannebery, it would be Mitchell - particularly if we can bring someone in who adds something different to the team.

I'd suggest that Richards and McVeigh retire
Derickx delisted
Other trade bait MAY be Reid, McGlynn and a couple of reserves players who haven't broken in to the side and might ask to leave to get a gig.

Could be an interesting end of year...

Ted is pretty much a certainty for retirement this year, but I don't think McVeigh will or should. Would McGlynn have much trade value about him? He'll be 31 next month, has a history of soft tissue injuries and a bit of a tendency to go missing at times. I think he's more likely to retire than be traded.
Agree on Derickx, though.

[CureTheSane]

A lower ranked team would offer McGlynn a 1 year deal you'd think.
He's playing regular seniors at a highly ranked club.
If there are no offers for him, it speaks volumes to the rose coloured glasses we all may be wearing....