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History says that 24.6% of teams on top of the ladder after round 5 have won the premiership 
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May the earth devour the West Coast Evils -
I imagine this falls in line with the probability of a top 4 team winning the premiership - and the team leading after 5 rounds finishing in the top 4.
Stats can be made to make anything be said about anything, fourfty percent of all people know that.The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.Comment
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That means 75.4% haven't.
Which round during the season is the greatest predictor of success in the GF? That is, the team on top in Round X goes on to win the GF more often than not?Comment
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Eventual finishing position of the team on top of the ladder at Round 5 since the introduction of the final 8:
2009: (St Kilda) 1st (lost GF)
2008: (Geelong) 1st (lost GF)
2007: (West Coast) 3rd (lost SF)
2006: (West Coast) 1st (Premiers)
2005: (West Coast) 2nd (lost GF)
2004: (St Kilda) 3rd (lost PF)
2003: (Brisbane) 3rd (Premiers)
2002: (Brisbane) 2nd (Premiers)
2001: (Hawthorn) 6th (lost PF)
2000: (Essendon) 1st (Premiers)
1999: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
1998: (Sydney) 3rd (lost SF)
1997: (West Coast) 5th (lost SF)
1996: (Brisbane) 3rd (lost PF)
1995: (Carlton) 1st (Premiers)
1994: (Melbourne) 7th (lost PF)
Premiers ladder position at Rd 5 since 1994:
2009 - Geelong - 2nd
2008 - Hawthorn - 2nd
2007 - Geelong - 10th
2006 - West Coast - 1st
2005 - Sydney - 10th
2004 - Port Adelaide - 2nd
2003 - Brisbane - 1st
2002 - Brisbane - 1st
2001 - Brisbane - 9th
2000 - Essendon - 1st
1999 - Nth Melb - 12th
1998 - Adelaide - 9th
1997 - Adelaide - 12th
1996 - Nth Melb - 3rd
1995 - Carlton - 1st
1994 - West Coast - 4th
What do these stats tell us?
Probably nothingComment
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here are more stats after R5... there is a website that gives all this stuff... am I allowed to publish its URL? Some blogs do not want directions other sites.
Ladder Position after R5, no of times occured, percentge win of premiership, Last Time achieved, and who
1st 28 24.6% 2002 Bris Lions
2nd 24 21.1% 2008 Hawthorn
3rd 16 14.0% 2009 Geelong
4th 9 7.9% 1994 West Coast
5th 10 8.8% 2005 Sydney
6th 5 4.4% 1992 West Coast
7th 8 7.0% 1991 Hawthorn
8th 2 1.8% 1953 Collingwood
9th 2 1.8% 1998 Adelaide
10th 4 3.5% 2001 Bris Lions
11th 1 0.9% 1999 Kangaroos
12th 1 0.9% 1945 Carlton
13th 1 0.9% 1993 Essendon _______________
May the earth devour the West Coast EvilsComment
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Noice of you guys to research all those stats, but they just give me a headache. I'd just like Bolton to be fit again in 6-7 weeks.
hp"He was proud of us when we won and he was still proud of us when we lost' Tami Roos about Paul Sept 06.
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Statistics show that 55% of all statistics are wrong.Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.Comment
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A lot better odds than I after round 1 I expect.Comment
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That we basically have a lock on a finals spot (or catastrophically would be the only team in fifteen years to not make them from this current position)! I'll go with proposition one - and since the pre-season wish for most of us would have been to make the finals, anything beyond that is a happy bonus!
As far as premierships go, dominating the ladder at this time of year often means diddly - just ask Adelaide! In recent years they've made being on the top rungs of the ladder at this time of year an art form. They were never able to turn it into even a grand final berth though! Fortunately for us, our history is somewhat different!Comment
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65% of percentile statistics work out to be 35% of the average facts?Comment
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I'm not getting ahead of myself with this statement because I still think a premiership this year is an outside chance, but I really should have put a lazy $20 on Sydney when we where 51-1! The impossible dream is starting to become a little more realistic with the way the boys are playing and the fact that no team is really dominating. The boys could beat anyone on their dayfollow me on twitterComment
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The exciting thing for Swans fans is that the team is still at a stage of rapid improvement. They have only played five senior games together for goodness sake. Our FF has only reached senior playing standard last weekend after an interrupted pre-season. So we should be expecting ongoing improvement. The fixture order has been perfect for that - we found out what the standard should be in R1 then had four games to work out how the team should work together and now we're into some serious challenges. If the team continues to improve we should certainly be aiming to win a fair share of those and not fall out of the Top 4 - especially in a year when there doesn't seem to be an unbeatable team.
Exciting times.Comment
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