Mega merged trading thread

[Big Al]

Al, there is no such thing as a shallow draft. The sperts say every year it is a shallow draft but come a few rounds in and the cry goes out about the gems picked up at high numbers. It's swings and roundabouts. You win some you lose some. Last year we just got it right with AJ and Parker. On SEN on Thursday Wallace went through the % success over the past 3-4 years of trades. The average across all clubs that could be deemed successful was 42%. Who was the highest at 82%, yes 82%; the Sydney Swans of course. So have faith old son. The glass half fullers though will say we must therefore be due for a shocker.

Thanks mate!! I'm usually pretty supportive of the club in recruiting decisions because they do get it right more often than not and your stats bear that out. Also they know a bit more about footy than the rest of us so I give them the benefit of the doubt more often than not.

I'm just I'm such a massive fan of LJ because I've seen what the kid can do. All he needs a bit of luck on the injury front. So I'm struggling to figure out the rationale for trading him.

[Steve]

The obvious case against trading LJ would be that he's still only 20, under contract, and clearly is talented. My first reaction hearing his name being raised was similar to others here.

BUT as a forward, it's hard to see him become more than a mobile tall half-forward. I've always thought his chance would be as a defender, particularly with his ball use - which you'd think Adelaide might have in mind, given they'll have a forward line with Tippett, Walker and now Lynch from St Kilda (plus guys like Sellar and McKernan who can go forward).

It really all depends on what we would get with pick 35 - if it were another Reid, Hannebery, Parker etc, then a prospect like that along with Armstrong probably wouldn't be a totally lopsided deal. But we'd be taking a fair punt though - unless we had someone else lined up to on-trade that pick for.

Port have said they preferred Renouf due to his age (23), which makes sense. Seaby will be 28 early next season - they probably only gave him a medical as a back-up in case they couldn't do a deal with Hawthorn. You have to feel for him - the story of his life - "the back-up".

[Big Al]

Could it be the old trade scare tactic the Swans have used before?

I hope it's just a shot across the bow of LJ if his attitude hasn't been great. Sadly I think this trade will happen.

[liz]

Port have said they preferred Renouf due to his age (23), which makes sense. Seaby will be 28 early next season - they probably only gave him a medical as a back-up in case they couldn't do a deal with Hawthorn. You have to feel for him - the story of his life - "the back-up".

Steve

You'd know more about the Hawks' list than anyone else who posts on here...what is the deal with them even trading Renouf out? Every other year they seem to have a ruck crisis (at least in the minds of the media) and are linked with one or more in a trade in. I realise they got Hale last year, and Roughhead was performing well as a back-up ruck before his injury, but given they are well and truly in a "premiership window" I would have thought they wanted to make sure they had adequate coverage in the ruck department. Bailey looks very promising but for a young tall who has already had 3 knee reconstructions, it must be a bit of a risk that he might get injured again. He's pretty young and raw to be holding down first ruck for a whole season for a premiership contender. And I wouldn't have thought they'd want to put too many eggs in the Roughy-ruck basket for next season, given the nature of his injury. I still think they look better, also, with him and Buddy together in the forward line.

Do they have other plausible senior ruck options that make Renouf so readily expendable?

[ugg]

The Hawks fans are very bullish on Luke Lowden, they think he's ready for senior football next year. Plus they have Paul Johnson as a mature age rookie just in case.

[Steve]

Steve

You'd know more about the Hawks' list than anyone else who posts on here...what is the deal with them even trading Renouf out? ...

Do they have other plausible senior ruck options that make Renouf so readily expendable?

Liz - I think it's probably all the reasons you listed, in aggregate. They do seem to rate Lowden as a l/t option as well.

I've always thought the ruck was a weakness for them in the Clarkson era, I'm not sure he rates them that highly? Even in 2008 it was Robbie Campbell, Renouf and Simon Taylor. I was very surprised they didn't go after Jolly at the time - thought they needed him much more than a Burgoyne.

But still a bit surprising they did let Renouf go nevertheless.

[ShockOfHair]

Thanks mate!! I'm usually pretty supportive of the club in recruiting decisions because they do get it right more often than not and your stats bear that out. Also they know a bit more about footy than the rest of us so I give them the benefit of the doubt more often than not.

I'm just I'm such a massive fan of LJ because I've seen what the kid can do. All he needs a bit of luck on the injury front. So I'm struggling to figure out the rationale for trading him.

I guess it's academic question, but where would you have played him - half forward or half back?

If there is a knock on him it's there hasn't been an obvious spot in the team for him, given the extra-tall forward structure our coaches like, plus he's not a running halfback type that we need. Presumably that's the attraction of Armstrong but I hate the idea of giving up a class player like Johnston to take a punt on a roughie like Armstrong. LJ will walk into teh Adelaide 22. Armstrong had better be good.

The good news is Tommy Walsh wants to join Sydney. The bad news is there's no chance of a trade.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/st-kilda-no-to-walsh-bid-20111014-1lpc0.html

[DLBIA14]

Them saying no doesn't mean much. Walsh's a rookie, is he not? Out of contract and the Saints have SC issues. I'd love to get him considering he's widely considered a good prospect and most Saints fans think he deserved a spot this year.

Even if we get him, I still want to keep LJ. We've invested so much into him and he's a young prospect in an area we so desperately need to find player in... I'm over the angry stage though. Now resigned to whatever Horse decides is best for this club.

[Big Al]

I guess it's academic question, but where would you have played him - half forward or half back?

With that kick, I'd play him as an attacking half back flanker. When you can pinpoint passes from 60m he'd be a weapon in that position. He just needs a fitness base and being always injured he could never get that.

[Auntie.Gerald]

If we get a mid 30s pick from adelaide with Armstrong and Adelaide get LJ.......maybe we even get another pic if they take Sumner also?..........I am starting to see the logic in us going after Tommy Walsh at the Saints and maybe giving a pic or two (say our mid 30's pic) plus a player to the Saints?........Seabs, Currie, Moore, Bevo etc? or who knows maybe little Spida is keen to go back? as LRT, GRUNDY and TEDDY have the backline covered and LRT gets ruck time

[Bas]

We should just let him go to the pre-season draft. I wouldn't be giving the Saints anything. He is not a regular first grader so picks in the 30 plus players is a bit over the top.

I'd give them our last pick with Bevan. Not that they would take it.

[Scottee]

Toovey's on the table.YES!! Seaby as a trade, salary cap room. Yhatzee!!

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/124928/default.aspx

[Chookbilly]

Not that anything is official yet,... I'm a little worried that we're going to get bent over in both the deal for Armstrong and Walsh.

The frustrating thing is that we have no reason to be.
We are in the box seat with both deals as the players are out of contract, and have requested to be traded to the Swans.

I guess we'll wait and see, I want to trust the management.

[Cardinal]

Apparently Fev is off to Darwin to play footy in order to keep fit: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsartic...6/default.aspx

I know it's only temporary, but a good sign nevertheless is Fev is so keen to play that he prepared to go interstate. Could see him at the Swans yet........

[liz]

With that kick, I'd play him as an attacking half back flanker. When you can pinpoint passes from 60m he'd be a weapon in that position. He just needs a fitness base and being always injured he could never get that.

If the plan is to play him as a HBF, then a trade for another HBF (with more runs on the board) and a draft pick doesn't sound like too bad a deal.

I think LJ has the potential to be more than a HBFer though. I'd have loved to see him more across half forward. Imagine the value of those 60m pinpoint passes into our forward line.