Top 4 finish likelihood

[annew]

Had a thought today. It has been said that teams going into the finals start a heavy training period at this time of year in preparation and often drop a game ala Hawthorn, Geelong, Swans so maybe it's not that we can't beat Collingwood but rather we also play them around round 21 and we are always preparing for finals. Anyway just a thought.

[Bloodthirsty]

Had a thought today. It has been said that teams going into the finals start a heavy training period at this time of year in preparation and often drop a game ala Hawthorn, Geelong, Swans so maybe it's not that we can't beat Collingwood but rather we also play them around round 21 and we are always preparing for finals. Anyway just a thought.

I think you could be onto something there. I never really thought of it like that before.

Would have won the Hawks match last year if it weren't for the usual umpire intervention/non-intervention.

Re our flag chances this year - I feel neither optimistic nor pessimistic about it. I just don't know what to think yet. I guess it depends on what happens with injuries and understanding what approach the club takes to selection: form/fitness of any player vs players with a rep.

[ScottH]

Had a thought today. It has been said that teams going into the finals start a heavy training period at this time of year in preparation and often drop a game ala Hawthorn, Geelong, Swans so maybe it's not that we can't beat Collingwood but rather we also play them around round 21 and we are always preparing for finals. Anyway just a thought.

That was mentioned in another thread about a 3 week period of intensive training. This week could be week 3. Who knows?

[DK_]

So, ah, go Carlton.

[annew]

So, ah, go Carlton.

Yep

[Melbournehammer]

Strangely I'd almost prefer to come 5th. I reckon the tigers could very easily scare the bejesus of the hawks. We might get an all right run against whoever finished 8th, and I'd certainly prefer to avoid the pies at anz.

Anyway, bring on the saints and lets see whether we are good enough to get two or more wins from the next three.

[Go Swannies]

Strangely I'd almost prefer to come 5th. I reckon the tigers could very easily scare the bejesus of the hawks. We might get an all right run against whoever finished 8th, and I'd certainly prefer to avoid the pies at anz.

Anyway, bring on the saints and lets see whether we are good enough to get two or more wins from the next three.

I know it's theoretically possible to win from 5th - or even 8th - but I reckon if we don't finish top 4 then we won't go back to back. Now that the Pies are out of finishing above us (if we beat the saints) then either we have to be very lucky with the Cats, Freo or Tigers throwing a game or we have to beat either the Cats or Hawks. Destiny is in our hands. Win one of these and I think we have a very good chance of going back to back.

Of course, if we lose the Saints game we're screwed.

[Ludwig]

With so many of our stars returning from long term injuries, it was interesting to see how a few of Hawthorn's returnees were doing.

Grant Birchall missed 7 games and I believe he came straight back in without playing reserves. He looked as if he hadn't missed a beat.

Cyril is now back for 7 games after missing 8. He's looking sharper, but still hasn't returned to his hot form before his injury.

Whitecross missed a year with an ACL and played quite good in his 8th game back, but still not up to last year's level.

It's hard to know how our guys are going to do when the return from injury. Whether they will be like Birchall or Cyril, because we can't wait weeks for those guys to fire. It's going to be a very hard call for Horse as to what to do with Goodes, Jetta and Reid, and may well determine how far we go this year. It's unlikely to influence our final position in the H and A, but surely will effect our performance in finals.

When you see the Hawks playing some of their top shelf footy, you really appreciate how hard it is to beat them. It makes our GF victory all the more special. Happy they won and knocked out the Pies from the top 4.

[Bloodthirsty]

With so many of our stars returning from long term injuries, it was interesting to see how a few of Hawthorn's returnees were doing.

Grant Birchall missed 7 games and I believe he came straight back in without playing reserves. He looked as if he hadn't missed a beat.

Cyril is now back for 7 games after missing 8. He's looking sharper, but still hasn't returned to his hot form before his injury.

Whitecross missed a year with an ACL and played quite good in his 8th game back, but still not up to last year's level.

It's hard to know how our guys are going to do when the return from injury. Whether they will be like Birchall or Cyril, because we can't wait weeks for those guys to fire. It's going to be a very hard call for Horse as to what to do with Goodes, Jetta and Reid, and may well determine how far we go this year. It's unlikely to influence our final position in the H and A, but surely will effect our performance in finals.

When you see the Hawks playing some of their top shelf footy, you really appreciate how hard it is to beat them. It makes our GF victory all the more special. Happy they won and knocked out the Pies from the top 4.

Based on what Parker said recently, Reid seems likely to be the first one of the 3 back. I like Reid, he is great and everything, but of the 3, he is the one we need back the least (compared with Goodes and Jetta).

- - - Updated - - -

And I can't help but feel that, given the injury situation, if we could work Rohan, Goodes and Morton back into the team somehow, we'd be a powerhouse. That would be a very balanced team. Seems to me that they would select Lamb over Morton, but Morton is such a big game player and always underrated no matter what he does.

[SimonH]

So, ah, go Carlton.

Feels so dirty saying it, but go the improbable Carlton comeback!

[johnno]

Go Blues!!!

(I feel so dirty)

[msb]

Yep go blues, top 4 is now assured with a win tomorrow. Don't @@@@ it up swans!

[Melbournehammer]

Who woulda thunk it ? Yeah blues and hawks

[hot potato]

We're the team that never let's you (the SWANS) down.
HP

[johnno]

Carlton win....thankyou Carlton.

Now for North to knock off the Bombers, and us to win tomorrow and I'd say we're safe.