2013 not yet re-signed....

[Ludwig]

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I dont understand why melbourne would possibly give up pick 2 for three fringe swans players, and how jesse suddenly became worth pick 7.

I wouldn't call Bird a fringe player. I'd rate him as a worth around a pick 20. He is one of my favourites BTW. He should be one of our main on ballers except that we are so deep in that area. He is just what Melbourne need. Lamb was a Pick 21 and is skillful young player. Agree that Armstrong is a fringe player, but probably not so at Melbourne. All depends on how one values players, but I thought it was worth a pick #2 to get 3 players that would be in your 22 next year as it would be in Melbourne's case. If I were Roos, I would do that trade.

It's Jesse + pick 37 for pick 7. I rate Jesse highly and think Brisbane would too. He's a Queenslander and they desperately need a forward that can backup in the ruck. But I can see that others might disagree. It is a bit of a push.

Again, I am not suggesting that we do this, but is rather just a speculative trading and drafting scenario.

Thanks for your comments.

[dimelb]

Dimelb what do you see in Jed to say he is a master in the making?

This is his 3rd season on the list, same as Luke Parker, who was a lower draft pick than Jed in 2010.

Will Jed's 4th season on the list be as good as Luke Parker's 3rd on the list?

Lets also remember that in 2012, Lewis Jetta, another 1st round pick, had an incredible year in his 3rd year on the list!

It's time for Jed to start demonstrating why the people of red and white rate him so highly!

I've only seen Jed play a few times as I don't get to ressie matches, so I'm relying on my few glimpses and ressie-watchers' reports.
He has taken a while to settle and has had his share of injuries and niggles to get over. He is a good kick, both at goal and around the field, and heaven knows we are short of that at present. I would have had him in the finals team ahead of Benny McGlynn for those reasons alone. He can also be a very slippery customer to get hold of. He has a good awareness of what's happening around him and is a good onfield organiser, to the point where he has captained the reserves (I'm not sure how many times). He is determined and courageous, and is responsive to the coaches' input.
That'll do to go on with!

[Melbournehammer]

I like the strategy. But the reality is almost every club overrates their own players and underrates other teams. Bird is dime a dozen across the league - a defensively minded midfielder with neither strong hands nor a strong kick. Accurate shot at goal. Good tackler. Not fast. he has limited upside wherever he goes. He will be starting in a melbourne side which would cry out for midfield depth, but he is not much of an improvement without the depth of jack, jetta, parker, hanners, rok, macca around him. I wouldn't actually trade for him from outside the club - i think he is a solid player that you might trade for a mid 2nd to 3rd round pick. armstrong cant get into a side which was down to its bare bones. i like armstrong and i think he is nowhere near as bad as many make out but i think he has no trade currency. lamb has potential but is probably worth more to us as a player who probably takes bolton's place this season than to another team where he will be seen as a softish forward flanker wingman type.

i would make the trade in a hearbeat if i was the swans but i think it hugely unlikely.

pick 37 is the makewight in the pick for jesse. i think brisbane might come at that but only because they may well lose the entire 2011 and 2012 drafts as voss got moved on. but again i think it unlikely.

almost every other club values draft picks over established players. Melb may be different this year but i reckon they would think that pick 2 (without the priority pick) is for a genuinely elite 27-30 player and something else (another draft pick in the teens or so).

[Ludwig]

I like the strategy. But the reality is almost every club overrates their own players and underrates other teams. Bird is dime a dozen across the league - a defensively minded midfielder with neither strong hands nor a strong kick. Accurate shot at goal. Good tackler. Not fast. he has limited upside wherever he goes. He will be starting in a melbourne side which would cry out for midfield depth, but he is not much of an improvement without the depth of jack, jetta, parker, hanners, rok, macca around him. I wouldn't actually trade for him from outside the club - i think he is a solid player that you might trade for a mid 2nd to 3rd round pick. armstrong cant get into a side which was down to its bare bones. i like armstrong and i think he is nowhere near as bad as many make out but i think he has no trade currency. lamb has potential but is probably worth more to us as a player who probably takes bolton's place this season than to another team where he will be seen as a softish forward flanker wingman type.

i would make the trade in a hearbeat if i was the swans but i think it hugely unlikely.

pick 37 is the makewight in the pick for jesse. i think brisbane might come at that but only because they may well lose the entire 2011 and 2012 drafts as voss got moved on. but again i think it unlikely.

almost every other club values draft picks over established players. Melb may be different this year but i reckon they would think that pick 2 (without the priority pick) is for a genuinely elite 27-30 player and something else (another draft pick in the teens or so).

I find your comments on Bird very insightful. I am sure many, if not most RWOers, would agree with you. But I rate Bird very highly. To me, he is a very good inside midfielder looking for a spot that's not available. So he is forced to play roles that is not best suited for. Despite this, he manages to do very well tagging players much faster and more agile than he is.

When he does get opportunities to play on ball, he racks up possessions at a rate comparable to our elite midfielders. He's not quick, but has a good sidestep that makes him difficult to tackle. He kicks well on both sides which he often uses to great advantage. I would say he's a cleaver and versatile footballer that does well in whatever role you put him. A coaches dream.

It's a bit unfair to say he's a dime a dozen when he placed 9th in the B & F voting last year on a premiership team.

On Jesse White, perhaps pick 31 instead of pick 37 makes it a bit fairer. Personally, I would rather keep Jesse.

[MightyBloods]

without reading the rest of the thread - are they definitely gone or is this speculation

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I dont understand why melbourne would possibly give up pick 2 for three fringe swans players, and how jesse suddenly became worth pick 7.

i could vaguely see the gws thing happening.

Agree, fringe/depth players won't get you draft ppick 2 these days. It used to happen as we fell for it in the early draft years.
I do rate the South Australian ..Scharenburg though. I watched the U/18s for the year and the kid looks a special.

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A kid I really like is Tom Nicholls at the Suns. A young ruckman who played extremely well with Zac Smith out injured. I'd send Jesse to the Suns in a heartbeat for this kid. Not sure what happens with Mumford but if he chose to leave I'd use a draft pick to try and get him (2nd Rd pick would be good enough). We should get a first Rd pick for Mumford unless the Giants decide to take him for nothing.

[Ludwig]

I think there is a big gap between the #1 (Boyd) and the rest of the field this year. The draft is a bit of a lottery with the next 20 picks as they are all fairly close in talent. Another 10 places in the draft wouldn't make that much difference. Scharenberg looks like a solid pick and likely to go top 5, but there are plenty of others available in the first round, regardless of place. The sad part is that there are not many good KPPs in this draft. If we can't land someone from GWS in a trade, we may well take Gardiner, if he is still available, with our first pick.

Personally, I would just like to do the GWS trade combining Mummy and Grundy for pick 9 and one of their disgruntled KPPs. It will really get tough on them if the get Buddy.

I also think that Lamb may go, being an uncontracted player, and for lack of opportunities. I think he will be a good player, yet may be squeezed out at the Swans, not only from above, but also being passed by some quality players coming from below (Cunningham, BJ, Jake Lloyd and Lloyd Perris).

[On-Baller]

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A kid I really like is Tom Nicholls at the Suns. A young ruckman who played extremely well with Zac Smith out injured. I'd send Jesse to the Suns in a heartbeat for this kid. Not sure what happens with Mumford but if he chose to leave I'd use a draft pick to try and get him (2nd Rd pick would be good enough). We should get a first Rd pick for Mumford unless the Giants decide to take him for nothing.

Yeah really good call on Nicholls, would trade for
him in a heartbeat but unfortunately i think his late season form will prevent the suns letting him go.

[liz]

Isn't Nicholls the one currently dating Tippett's sister?

Would love him at the Swans (for his footy ability, not the 'family' connection) but I think he recently signed a new contract with the Suns, suggesting he's happy where he is.

[Ludwig]

Wow, Kurt's sister is a very big girl. Sign her up. First Ruckwoman in the AFL.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I am going to start my draft summary from the perspective that I think our list is as good as any in the comp

As I stated in another thread, if 6 or more of the key players at the Hawks, Geelong or Freeo were not available in the final series and two or more of their players were not match fit on top of the 6 out then they would struggle also. In my opinion we would be an even contest against the top 4 teams with the same amount of injuries on both sides.

These guys make a massive difference to our best 22 and equally would make a massive difference to any team when not available:

Tippett
Goodes
LRT
Shaw
Mitchell
Morton
Mattner

Therefore on that basis i think we have a very strong list and maintaining what we have will be one of the biggest challenges and coping with our ageing list will be key.

The likely replacements over time for the below key ageing players are as per below and I think all of the below apprentices can be as good as their masters. I also think that most are ahead of them in ability at the same age......Goodes / Reid maybe not but different roles at the same age.

Bolton - Parker
ROK - Mitchell
Goodes - Reid
Ted - Xavier
Shaw - Cunningham
Mattner - Rampe
Mal - Dre, Marsh, BJ, A.Brown, Towers or recruit from outside via a trade...... but this is such a key role ie the guy who sets up a lot of play from deep and we were exposed massively in this area by Freeo.......maybe KJack needs some more time off HBF like Sam Mitchell or continue with Macca playing his part ?

So in short i think we are stong in all areas except our speed and delivery off HBF against the best teams.......still think we need some speed off the HBF unless Dre and Rampe continue their development and are allowed like the 2nd half of the game against Freeo to play wider and more attacking........

I am not sure if Towers went back to the forwards in 2013 ressies because he was not deemed good enough as a back and therefore would become a contender in the forwards if he peaked and was ready?

PS - i think we need to persist with Lambie another season.......he is a very good young player and I honestly think he is just as far along as Macca or Jude at the same age. In fact i was say some are being impatient and he could even be further along in his ability........his game sense has come along defensively in leaps and bounds through out the season and so to his work rate. Another pre season and he will be dangerous

[dimelb]

I agree with AG's assessment of the quality of our list, and with the idea that we don't have to do a lot by way of drafting or trading. A modest trade or two would be OK - sorting out the Mummy situation in particular, although my preference is to keep him.
What I would like to see more of is an in-house reshuffle with a view to more multi-skilled players. We have nurtured forward-mids (Jude, Benny, Parker, O'Keefe, Hannebery - the list goes on), but not too many back-mids (does Shaw do this occasionally? Eski?). For example, someone mentioned that our only real big-bodied mid is Josh, and that was an area where Freo had it over us. So how about Rampe moving into the middle now and then? I'd like to see him throwing his weight around there. I realise it is important to grow cohesion among the back six, especially when it's not just the same six, but I think there is room for a bit more flexibility.

[Dosser]

I am going to start my draft summary from the perspective that I think our list is as good as any in the comp

As I stated in another thread, if 6 or more of the key players at the Hawks, Geelong or Freeo were not available in the final series and two or more of their players were not match fit on top of the 6 out then they would struggle also. In my opinion we would be an even contest against the top 4 teams with the same amount of injuries on both sides.

I think we need to look a little more critically at this. Our midfield was basically at full strength all year and that is where we got beaten. Otherwise you have some good thoughts.

[dimelb]

I think we need to look a little more critically at this. Our midfield was basically at full strength all year and that is where we got beaten. Otherwise you have some good thoughts.

I think more work is needed on skills and positioning. I get the impression that Lyon has worked his crew obsessively in these areas.

[Melbournehammer]

i am clearly struggling to read the annual report i am supposed to be reading...

but the real question with the list is what are we aiming for. if we are aiming for a flag in the next two seasons we have to have a midfield which can compete and beat geelong, hawthorn and freo (and the pies, port and the crows). if we are aiming to be a top 8 team for 8 years then you may choose a different profile of player.

I think we are much too sanguine about our inside midfielders - we got hammered there against everyone of the better teams - and if truth were told we were smashed there last season in the finals as well - its just that the crows and hawks didnt make the most of their chances and the pies were struggling at the time. so against the top end talent we have struggled a bit over the past two seasons. but our defence which was that basis upon which we won the flag - imagine losing the clerances against the crows and the hawks and the inside fifty by nearly 1/3 and still win the flag ??

secondly i am glad dosser has said what he has said - if you guys get the chance go and watch our finals campaign again and watch how many times we missed targets - wide open players going forwards. Not situations where some opponent chopped off a kick by leaving their man but situations where we had a free player and simply missed them. we got away with against the blues but were punished mercilessly by the hawks (we didnt see the ball again for two minues) and we only ever had about 10 chances to move the ball against freo and we missed targets almost every time.

the slingshot thing scored a lot of goals for us in 2012 because we scored a lot from 20 metres out - a good place to be shooting at goal from. but almost every club is now playing us with a sweeper twenty metres behind the last man. unless we improve our skills and force that player to be accountable by manning up by kicking to the spare on each occasion we are going to struggle to get that shot as often.

we need to be looking for a guerra type who can consistently hit targets and control things from the hbf - partly because we need macca so much kicking into the fifty.

so in my view we need:

1. a really good contested ball winner (and mitchell may be that player but he needs to be played on the ball like young libba and not as a hff where his kicking is his weakness rather than his hands)
2. a really highly skilled hbf who can control the game

rohan and jetta if both are fit will bring us the spread from the contest that we are missing but we need to start keeping the ball a bit more

without these i reckon there is a good chance of treading water in 2014 as rok and goodes retire. as they retire we will need to find some outlets in the midfield to mark the ball - as liz correctly says our midfield really lacks an ability to take marks which makes everything a contest and prevents us from getting any easy play

anyway i am hopeful for 2014 but we need to improve and the improvement has got to start with the coaches and the team list

[Blood Tunnel]

All we need to do is target an experienced player that fills our needs that can't get a regular crack at senior football at his club.
Often you would look at one of the top 5 or 6 clubs that are in striking distance of a p'ship. There will always be players that are down on confidence because of a lack of faith shown in them by their coach.

Jeremy Laidler (example only) at Carlton is such a player that was told by MM to play as a forward in the twos & learn the craft. In an interview on the w/end he clearly says he could not cope with this as he is a natural defender. He went to Carlton from a talent rich Geelong for more opportunities. He is clearly not part of M Malthouse's defensive plans
Should our coaches have a chat with him & tell him that they will play him down back & give him first crack at a defensive position, the confidence shown in him may deliver us another Mattner at the lower end of the salary scale & with no need to sacrifice a good draft pick for him. Heath Shaw would provide us with some sort of risk plus would need a higher draft pick & more money from our salary cap.

Laidler is just an example only.