List changes and trade bait

[Ludwig]

Having two picks at around 40 is the most realistic outcome. Maybe a trade of Biggs to a Victorian Club could move one of those picks up 2-5 places in the 2nd round.

I still believe that a trade for Craig Bird is best. Mitchell will be competing for his spot in 2015 and its time to back Mitchell. There will also be competition in the reserves from Heeney, Jones and Hewitt for his spot. If he has a down year next year, then his currency value will be shot.

A trade now would move one of those two likely picks around 40 up to a late 1st round or an early 2nd round.

This is just my opinion.

Agree that St Kilda's pick 41 is looking the most likely outcome at this point. Reaching for an early 20s pick is optimistic. If Biggs does want to leave, moving up a few slots is also realistic. I think we moved up only 7 places for Everitt, but we got George Hewett with that pick, so it turned out well.

I think the very best for us would be Membery, Biggs plus picks 39 and 58 for STKs picks 22 and 41. It's fair, but doubt it will happen.

I am still bemused by Kinnear Beatson's remark (posted earlier) that he didn't think this draft was strong in KPPs, which runs counter to what most other list managers are saying. It makes me wonder what kind of player we'd be looking for with whatever live picks we end up with. Maybe he really doesn't care where the picks land.

I don't think Bird is going anywhere this year, but it will be interesting to see what happens if he gets squeezed out by Mitchell and others next year. Bird is coming off his best season, yet seems less secure in our 22 than ever. I think it's indicative of the growing strength of our midfield.

Even a talented player like Christensen doesn't make sense of us given the midfield talent that we have on our list. It only pushes out another talented player. It creates the kind of situation where players like Membrey and Biggs need to go elsewhere for opportunities.

[troyjones2525]

Agree with a post earlier from Matt80 who suggested that Bird should be looked at if the right deal comes along. With a couple of players putting pressure on him from the ressies (Mitchell, Hewitt) and a few more to come (Heeney, Mills and Dunkley) our midfield looks strong enough to make the move. With Roosy still in love with some of his ex players could we offer him up for their 2nd round pick (currently 23) which would be a win win as we could look at bringing in some young key position talent and they could strengthen their midfield allowing them to use picks 2 and 3 on the two big highly rated key position boys in McCartin and Wright.

I have my doubts that the club will even consider this but I believe that we need to do something as 1. it'll free up some valuable salary cap space and 2. We need some more young key position talent or even a quality small forward option with could still be available at that pick. In suggesting this it doesn't mean that I don't rate Birdy as a player because I do, but we do have a few options in the rover/centre position and I believe he still has currency in the open market, especially while Roos is still around! Food for thought anyway.

[Matt80]

Another trade idea.

If we can get an early 2nd round for Craig Bird from Melbourne without using an upgrade, we will still have two picks around 40 to play with.
The Brisbane Lions are likely to burn all their draft picks before pick 60 in securing Beams and Christensen.

They need to take at least two players in the draft and having two picks above 60 is very speculative. If we gave them our two picks in the 40s, is there a decent younger player on the Brisbane list that will help us at that value?

This is just a hypothesis.

[CureTheSane]

Wouldn't cry if we lost Bird.

I wonder if there are a few clubs out there who equally despise Eddie who are happier to do a deal with us to piss him of?

[Melbournehammer]

Yeah exactly. Re improvement and talent, it's not a question of 'if', it's a question of 'when'. 'When' is critical because the apex needs to occur simultaneously across the park, without many injuries. The planets need to align. So, Buddy bagging another Coleman next year along with Tippett playing well with him is pointless if Rohan is at his apex in 2 seasons time, Heeney steps up the year or two after, the ruckmen start to dominate at a different time; meanwhile there are quality player exits etc etc etc. Timing is everything, and it seems obvious that the time is now (2014-17). Talent is only one part of the equation. That's why everyone is feeling that the GF performance was a huge waste of a perfect and rare opportunity.

The planets need to align, so good things need to happen all at once, not rationed over 5 years.

I agree with all of this except the timing issue. some players will be going up while others are going down at all times and at all clubs. Timing is everything but we cant control it all.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Sliding doors 2012 Kurt Tippett goes to Gold Coast. Did Sydney select Tippett before or after Buddy told Sydney that he wanted to play with the Swans. If Tippett not bought Sydney still has Mummy/Pyke rucking and resting at FF. Pykey taking marks and kicking goals, Mummy still smashing everyone.Sydney maybe pick up another player and Sydney looks better to me already but history says something different!!! Sydney is the most predictable team and Hawthorn, know it. All other teams knew what to do but most other teams can't do it. I have watched plenty of this year again with replays on FoxFooty, and kicking it to 2 on 1 or 3 on 1 with no smalls crumbing, like Bruest/Papualo, and Tippett's contract is backended means Sydney will be doing not much without trading a big name this or next year. We will be in the four but playing the same way at the same lever or can Geelong, Port and Freo go past Sydney? Mills and Dunkley next year but 2 or 3 years before we see their best? All players just a year older without the best kick in the team! Hawthorn keep changing things, tactics, roles and can Sydney match it? Sorry, probably too much thinking.

[Conor_Dillon]

This is just a hypothesis.

Hypothetical?

[RogueSwan]

Wouldn't cry if we lost Bird...

I wouldn't cry, but I would be dissappointed. I think Bird is a lot more valuable to the team than most RWOer's do.
With Bird, Kennedy and Mitchell around the ball (apart from the centre bounce obivously) we have a very skillful set of hands feeding the ball out. Just need TomD to keep improving to help out Myke. :-)

[Scottee]

I've got a feeling good things are going to happen. Its a BLOODS MOON tonight!

[liz]

Giving up a player like Bird for the sake of getting a draft pick in the 20s is plain draft. History tells us that the chances of that player contributing as much as Bird over the next five or so years are relatively slim. However, if another club were desperate for a player like Bird and had a decent and youngish (but not too young) key defender surplus, it might be a trade that makes sense.

[Primmy]

Giving up a player like Bird for the sake of getting a draft pick in the 20s is plain draft. History tells us that the chances of that player contributing as much as Bird over the next five or so years are relatively slim. However, if another club were desperate for a player like Bird and had a decent and youngish (but not too young) key defender surplus, it might be a trade that makes sense.

I can see the logic liz, but we have had a lot of ups and downs with Birdy (sic) and its about time it paid dividends. As Reg said, they had to invest 5 years into him before getting him on the park as a regular. Even so I am still not too sure about him, but he has his moments. Same as Bird. Same as the lot of them. I would like to have an unnervingly stable stable of players. Makes the rest of the AFL world wonder what we are up to.

[liz]

I can see the logic liz, but we have had a lot of ups and downs with Birdy (sic) and its about time it paid dividends. As Reg said, they had to invest 5 years into him before getting him on the park as a regular. Even so I am still not too sure about him, but he has his moments. Same as Bird. Same as the lot of them. I would like to have an unnervingly stable stable of players. Makes the rest of the AFL world wonder what we are up to.

I am not advocating trading Bird, or a player of his ilk. I am arguing that it only makes sense if it is needed to bring in a youngish but relatively proven player in a position where we have less depth. It is not an argument for trading Bird, but an argument against trading him for the sake of satisfying some people's irrational desires to get more low value tickets in the draft lottery.

[Scottee]

We have lost enough midfield strength and experience already with Malceski going. Besides , wouldn't the Swans want to hang on to a Sydney boy who has serves us loyally for a number of years. BTW he certainly made a difference when he came on in the GF. Still can't work out why they placed more confidence in Jetta than him on the day. He isn't that fast in the legs but he thinks quickly, reads the play, has physical strength, can kick and ALWAYS TRIES!

[RogueSwan]

We have lost enough midfield strength and experience already with Malceski going. Besides , wouldn't the Swans want to hang on to a Sydney boy who has serves us loyally for a number of years. BTW he certainly made a difference when he came on in the GF. Still can't work out why they placed more confidence in Jetta than him on the day. He isn't that fast in the legs but he thinks quickly, reads the play, has physical strength, can kick and ALWAYS TRIES!

What he said.

[Matt80]

I am not advocating trading Bird, or a player of his ilk. I am arguing that it only makes sense if it is needed to bring in a youngish but relatively proven player in a position where we have less depth. It is not an argument for trading Bird, but an argument against trading him for the sake of satisfying some people's irrational desires to get more low value tickets in the draft lottery.

The Bird trade is about opportunity and budget management. We have had no free agency fire power this year because of the tight nature of our cap. Next years free agency may be exciting as there are some great prospects becoming available. We need to make the cap savings now. Malceski has freed up some room and Bird will ad some more room. We can then front end some contracts in 2015, which will leave us more room to move late next year.

We need to also create opportunity room for midfielders such as Mitchell, Hewitt, Heeney and Jones. I believe at their best that all four of those midfielders have more upside than Craig Bird, if they can play a lot of senior football. What would Sir Alex Ferguson do? He would back the kids and sell Bird.

The early 2nd round probably gets us a decent young KPD prospect to work with.