2015 academy discussion thread (with some FS thrown in for good measure)

[707]

The way the Pies are travelling at the moment they are likely to finish below us at the end of H & A.
Will Eddie make sure we pay the ultimate price for Mills (although I am pretty sure he has already done that)?.

Collingwood could end up with a pick as early as 7 (only Bris, GC, Carl, Ess, StK, Dees below them). If Mills didn't get bid on before pick 7 we'll have ourselves a win. Pick 7 is 1315 points, less than our first and second pick.

Thoughts are that pick 4 (Essendon) is the first club likely to call Mills name. ND will be great watching this year just to see how the dummy bids on academy players play out.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

I don't think Essendon will go for MILLS but maybe St Kilda but Melbourne will absolutely select MILLS. Collingwood will use their selection to trade for Treloar, and a player, who is trying to get to the Magpies. GWS has stopped talking about Treloar so he is going unless GWS are willing to tell Treloar to "Good Luck with the draft" and that would change the whole landscape. The other alternative for GWS, if they do trade with Treloar, is that they can use both selections for HOPPER and KENNEDY. I still think Melbourne are the bogey team and they will be going for MILLS at pick 5. At this moment!!!!!!! GO the Demons.....

[707]

I don't think Essendon will go for MILLS but maybe St Kilda but Melbourne will absolutely select MILLS. ............ GO the Demons

They won't bid expecting to actually get Mills, because they know we will take Mills regardless, they will bid to make sure we use our second rounder plus to secure him. After last years bid of nastiness by the Dees, I'm with you, I want them as far down the draft order as possible to minimise their damage in academy bidding.

I feel quietly confident academy brothers Brisbane pick 1 and GCS pick 2 wouldn't foul the water by throwing in early bids on other teams academy players and surely the cess pit Carlton would be more concerned about their own plight than to throw in a dummy bid at pick 3. Essendon with their strange and difficult recruiting manager Adrian Dodoro are our biggest danger at pick 4. Anything from pick 5 out and I reckon we can feel good because even if we win the flag that's only our first and second picks. In the real world of trading, could you trade pick 18 and pick 37 for pick 5, no you couldn't.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Also Lloyd Perris contract ends this year. I hope he is a keeper, love the way he plays.

[Mug Punter]

They won't bid expecting to actually get Mills, because they know we will take Mills regardless, they will bid to make sure we use our second rounder plus to secure him. After last years bid of nastiness by the Dees, I'm with you, I want them as far down the draft order as possible to minimise their damage in academy bidding.

I feel quietly confident academy brothers Brisbane pick 1 and GCS pick 2 wouldn't foul the water by throwing in early bids on other teams academy players and surely the cess pit Carlton would be more concerned about their own plight than to throw in a dummy bid at pick 3. Essendon with their strange and difficult recruiting manager Adrian Dodoro are our biggest danger at pick 4. Anything from pick 5 out and I reckon we can feel good because even if we win the flag that's only our first and second picks. In the real world of trading, could you trade pick 18 and pick 37 for pick 5, no you couldn't.

I have no issue with the Dees bidding 4 or 5 for Mills because that is what he is worth, for this system to work then we need to expect, indeed encourage other clubs to bid for our players.

Phanton bidding won't be a huge issue I feel because clubs cannot afford to sell themselves short in an attempt to spite us.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think Essendon will go for MILLS but maybe St Kilda but Melbourne will absolutely select MILLS. Collingwood will use their selection to trade for Treloar, and a player, who is trying to get to the Magpies. GWS has stopped talking about Treloar so he is going unless GWS are willing to tell Treloar to "Good Luck with the draft" and that would change the whole landscape. The other alternative for GWS, if they do trade with Treloar, is that they can use both selections for HOPPER and KENNEDY. I still think Melbourne are the bogey team and they will be going for MILLS at pick 5. At this moment!!!!!!! GO the Demons.....

Can see GWS doing a straight swap for Treloar, they can then use that plus their first rounder to effectively pay for Hopper and Kennedy, what a list strategy they have now

[Mug Punter]

Also Lloyd Perris contract ends this year. I hope he is a keeper, love the way he plays.

If he continues his good form I can see no reason we wouldn't elevate both Perris and Naismith at year end.

Can see us going with Mills, Dunks, another academy kid and an interstater - that means six out this year which will be pretty severe for us. At this stage I'd be saying Goodes, Shaw, Bird, Towers and Alliir Alliir out with one other (could be Jetta but I hope so much it isn't)

[dimelb]

I wouldn't be getting rid of Aliir just when he looks as if he's going to be a decent player.

[mcs]

If he continues his good form I can see no reason we wouldn't elevate both Perris and Naismith at year end.

Can see us going with Mills, Dunks, another academy kid and an interstater - that means six out this year which will be pretty severe for us. At this stage I'd be saying Goodes, Shaw, Bird, Towers and Alliir Alliir out with one other (could be Jetta but I hope so much it isn't)

Is Perris able to be a rookie again next year (can't remember the rules about this) - if so, I'd say he will stay on the rookie list and Naismith will get upgraded.

I think Marsh, despite his run of bests in the seconds, must be in danger of getting the chop. I'd be very surprised to see us cut Allir, he has made some really good progress this year.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Both Bird and Towers are contracted to end of 2016. Other teams might trade for Birdy but I cant see any suitors for Towers.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Perris and Naismith are the only rookies in their 2nd or 3rd years. The others are in their 1st year with Melican, McLaren, Newman and Foote.

In the gun are Aliir, Marsh, Hewett, BJ, Robbo and very weird that Keiran is also uncontracted.

[The Big Cat]

The two certain chopees are Marsh and Derickx. A lot will depend on whether Goodesy and Shaw play on as to whether others need to go to fit in Naismith, Mills and Dunkley. Perris will be our third year Rookie. We must keep Allir as we have to have some sort of key position backup. Plus I think he'll make it.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Another year for Derickx as contract ends in 2016. Maybe Essendon needs a ruckman!!!! Also what about AJ, will he go to the rookie list.

[707]

Both Bird and Towers are contracted to end of 2016. Other teams might trade for Birdy but I cant see any suitors for Towers.

I can, Port Melbourne, South Adelaide, Swan Districts ....

[707]

You can have one third year rookie on your list, so that's either Perris or Naismith with the other being that third year rookie. We only run 38 on the main list not the allowed 40 so AJ could be on either.

Marsh must be the most likely main list casualty other than retirements (Shaw, Goodes) and trades (Bird).

Alliir going no where, he's a KPD and making progress.

[rb4x]

Naismith is already a third year rookie. Needs to be upgraded or delisted. Would suggest upgrading is most likely unless his injury woes are chronic.