2015 academy discussion thread (with some FS thrown in for good measure)

[ugg]

Incorrect he did join the Academy albeit very late

[Mug Punter]

Just mulling over our drafting choices for this year

My predictions are:

* We'll take Mills at 4 but won't match a #1 Bid from Carlton
* Dunkley will be passed at pick 12 or below, reckon Richmond at Pick 14 will be where we get him
* We'll bundle up Robbo and Bird for the Dees third round pick 42

So, doing the math and based on us getting knocked out in the Prelim (which I oibviously hope doesn't happen) and not taking into account Free Agency Compo picks or potential Jetta trade value the result will be

* We get Mills and Dunks with our other picks placed at the back of the draft
* Our first round pick for 2016 gets slipped back 4-5 places based on our finish

Do we have to draft any minimum number of players directly or does the count include upgrades?

Can we draft Mills, Dunks, an additional academy kid (Hebron or Baron-Hay seem to have done best at the U18s) plus a Naismith upgrade?

If we can then I'd go for those four with Shaw and Goodes retiring and Robbo and Bird traded, giving the rest of the squad an additional year to prove their worth

And if we can do this, my friends, then that is the true benefit of the Academy. Subject to any low ball bids we will pretty much have our trading business done well before the event because we have the certainly and player intelligence to do so. Having said that we will still need to have a plan B

[Auntie.Gerald]

i think it is very hard for us to say that Mills is a top5 pick without seeing enough of the other talent and knowing the needs of other teams but he is a top10

[Mug Punter]

i think it is very hard for us to say that Mills is a top5 pick without seeing enough of the other talent and knowing the needs of other teams but he is a top10

Clearly it is very subjective and I am only going on phantom drafts in the press by the likes of draft watchers like Emma Quayle but Mills is universally rated top 5 by the "experts" with some rating him the best Mid in the draft.

I would think we'd definitely match Pick 4 but Carlton are playing a very dangerous game in phantom picking Mills if they really want Weitering or Schache who seem to be 1 and 2 in most phantom drafts and who are both KPPs.

[707]

Carlton bids pick 1 we let him go there. He'll hate the quagmire that is Carlton 2016/17 and ask to be traded to Sydney, just like so many other draftees ask to go home.

Carlton missing out on Weitering or Schache for a homesick outahere midfielder and you could guarantee that there will never be another vexatious bid again!

Reckon Carlton won't stuff around and won't be able to call out Weitering's name quick enough. Fellow academy clubs Brisbane and Gold Coast won't bid meaning Essendon and their @@@@@ of a recruiting manager Dodoro will bid at 4 on Mills and probably GWS Hopper. With discount, 1627 points needed for pick 4, 1112 points for being beaten in the Prelim so need to use our first and second points to get Mills.

[Ludwig]

If both Kreuzer and Leuenberger go to other clubs via free agency it is likely that Carlton would have the first 2 picks followed by 2 Brisbane picks and Gold Coast with pick 5.

If that does pan out, I think it would be a vexatious bid for Carlton to bid on Mills and not to pick Schache and Weitering with their first 2 picks, who are clearly rated the top 2 of this draft. Carlton will also lose Henderson and Yarran, so will have other reasonably high picks to get midfielders with trades or draft picks.

I'm hoping that the other academy clubs will support each other by not making bids on their academy players. If so, Mills could drop to pick 6 or lower.

Agree that both Bird and Robinson should be traded in fairness to them as they will have few opportunities at the Swans. Mills will be very good. Maybe another Heeney. Hewett will be up there as well. Both could be challenging for regular spots next year.

If we can get Dunkley at a good value, then why not? There are far to many variables at this point to project how the post season period will pan out.

[Mug Punter]

If both Kreuzer and Leuenberger go to other clubs via free agency it is likely that Carlton would have the first 2 picks followed by 2 Brisbane picks and Gold Coast with pick 5.

If that does pan out, I think it would be a vexatious bid for Carlton to bid on Mills and not to pick Schache and Weitering with their first 2 picks, who are clearly rated the top 2 of this draft. Carlton will also lose Henderson and Yarran, so will have other reasonably high picks to get midfielders with trades or draft picks.

I'm hoping that the other academy clubs will support each other by not making bids on their academy players. If so, Mills could drop to pick 6 or lower.

Agree that both Bird and Robinson should be traded in fairness to them as they will have few opportunities at the Swans. Mills will be very good. Maybe another Heeney. Hewett will be up there as well. Both could be challenging for regular spots next year.

If we can get Dunkley at a good value, then why not? There are far to many variables at this point to project how the post season period will pan out.

I agree with this assessment and I think the club will take a pragmatic approach to the draft.

The general consensus is that Mills is rated top 5 but not number 1. If he was generally viewed as a #1 pick then we'd have to cop that and also be thankful we could make it happen to draft him. But he's not so we just need to hold firm. And it would be incredibly silly for Carlton to draft him instead of one of the two keys - Weitering and Schache will give them a huge boost. On that note surely they shouldn't get Pick 2 for Kreuzer (know they can but it seems so unfair) - that win by the Lions will cost them so dearly as Schache really wanted to go to them.

If Mills could slip to #6 that would be a huge win for us.

Bird and Robbo would be a good pickup for the Dees - one for now (and a Premiership player at that) and one for the future. Pick 42 for a bundled deal would really add to their depth - add in Petracca coming back, Picks 6, 24 Bird Robbo and maybe another free agent and their squad will start looking a lot stronger. Whilst not spectacular the Roos re-build of the Dees is looking very solid - from 2-20 and a % of 50 to 7-15 and 75 is solid for two years with not a concession in sight. They desperately need to keep Howe though

[WauchopeAnalyst]

With the free agency happening Sydney's first pick might be pick 21. With the possibility of Dangerfield, Kreuzer, Leuenberger, Selwood, Brodie Martin and we don't know who is moving, and then the VFL apportion a extra selection to clubs as free agents, only god knows what our first pick could be.

[Mug Punter]

With the free agency happening Sydney's first pick might be pick 21. With the possibility of Dangerfield, Kreuzer, Leuenberger, Selwood, Brodie Martin and we don't know who is moving, and then the VFL apportion a extra selection to clubs as free agents, only god knows what our first pick could be.

Which will be offset by the fact that what we have pay also moves out. As long as Mills doesn't get picked 1 or 2 he comes to us!!

[Ludwig]

Which will be offset by the fact that what we have pay also moves out. As long as Mills doesn't get picked 1 or 2 he comes to us!!

Perhaps I misunderstand you, but there no offset. If Danger, Kreuzer and LBerger all return 1st round compo picks for their respective clubs then our first round pick and related value points will drop 3 slots. It won't have any impact on where Mills will be picked in the draft. For instance, if Brisbane bid pick 3 for Mills, it won't matter that there will have been FA compensation picks mixed into the first round and we will still have to pay the discounted value for a pick 3, but with a reduced number of value points. I once pointed this out as a serious deficiency in the new academy schema and very unfair. If we haven't raised this issue with the AFL already, I think we should. We are already taking a big enough hit with the academy bidding system.

It will be interesting to see what the Giants get for Treloar. My guess is that it will be around the same as the discount on Mills (around a pick 5 value). So the academy bidding system says that an unproven draft prospect is worth around the same a one of the very best young midfielders in the league. I saw that only Robert Harvey and Joel Selwood had more possessions than Treloar after their first 79 games. The way things are now there's no advantage to taking a player, even one of Mills' quality, at too high a bid. Out of contract players just name their preferred club and a deal is arranged. We can play that game too.

We really have to make it painful for clubs to bid on our academy players. Make it known that we will let other clubs train them up and after 2 years they'll request to be traded to us.

[Mug Punter]

Perhaps I misunderstand you, but there no offset. If Danger, Kreuzer and LBerger all return 1st round compo picks for their respective clubs then our first round pick and related value points will drop 3 slots. It won't have any impact on where Mills will be picked in the draft. For instance, if Brisbane bid pick 3 for Mills, it won't matter that there will have been FA compensation picks mixed into the first round and we will still have to pay the discounted value for a pick 3, but with a reduced number of value points. I once pointed this out as a serious deficiency in the new academy schema and very unfair. If we haven't raised this issue with the AFL already, I think we should. We are already taking a big enough hit with the academy bidding system.

It will be interesting to see what the Giants get for Treloar. My guess is that it will be around the same as the discount on Mills (around a pick 5 value). So the academy bidding system says that an unproven draft prospect is worth around the same a one of the very best young midfielders in the league. I saw that only Robert Harvey and Joel Selwood had more possessions than Treloar after their first 79 games. The way things are now there's no advantage to taking a player, even one of Mills' quality, at too high a bid. Out of contract players just name their preferred club and a deal is arranged. We can play that game too.

We really have to make it painful for clubs to bid on our academy players. Make it known that we will let other clubs train them up and after 2 years they'll request to be traded to us.

I wasn't very clear there at all.

What I meant was that assuming Carlton don't take Mills with 1 or 2 and assuming the Lions and Suns pass on him he should go at 6-8

That slippage from 4 - 6 means we have to pay 226 less for Mills (80% of 2,034 less 1,751).

But if our pick 18 (best case scenario) slips 5 places to 23 then we lose 170 points to pay for him (985 less 815)

Which means we are 56 points in front

Apologies for any confusion

[troyjones2525]

I've noticed nobody is really talking about Dunkley anymore. I'd be surprised if we go after him this year now. Has played the entire 2nd half of the year now and has hardly rated in the best players or goal kickers for his team.

Will be interesting to see how much we rate him.

[Mug Punter]

I've noticed nobody is really talking about Dunkley anymore. I'd be surprised if we go after him this year now. Has played the entire 2nd half of the year now and has hardly rated in the best players or goal kickers for his team.

Will be interesting to see how much we rate him.

We certainly won't be paying overs for him. I now agree with Ludwig re passing on Mills at 1 or 2 but the club may have decided he is just too good to pass up and as a matter of principle we need another top line academy gun early on validate the system.

But we won't be making any sentimental choices with Dunks Jnr, you would think his valuation has really started to slide. I'd say we'd still be interested at the right price. Once you get into the second round you get some good relative value on the F/S and academy kids - for instance if we match him at pick 30 we only need to effectively give up pick 40.

[Auntie.Gerald]

if we pass on Mills and get pick 18 or what ever it is ............how good have our picks been around this range anyway ?

[Auntie.Gerald]

obviously one of the counter arguments is that our pick 30 to 40s like Parker, Reid, Hannes have been sensational !!!