2015 academy discussion thread (with some FS thrown in for good measure)

[Mug Punter]

I tend to agree. From being an also-ran in the Richmond VFL reserves to debuting in a top 4 AFL team within 12 months is extremely unlikely. I am beginning to wonder if Dunkley's reputation was made when he was a lot bigger than the rest of the boys his age but now they have caught up to him his skills arent as good.

You could be right there, it will be very interesting to see what happens with Dunk Jnr Draft night

[Nico]

I tend to agree. From being an also-ran in the Richmond VFL reserves to debuting in a top 4 AFL team within 12 months is extremely unlikely. I am beginning to wonder if Dunkley's reputation was made when he was a lot bigger than the rest of the boys his age but now they have caught up to him his skills arent as good.

I repeat; Andrew took a while to come good, and more so as a full back. He was pretty well built when he first started. Apples don't fall too far from the tree.

[Mug Punter]

I repeat; Andrew took a while to come good, and more so as a full back. He was pretty well built when he first started. Apples don't fall too far from the tree.

You could be right, the Swans clearly know him well and rate his character, I'd say that we'd like to draft him but not at any price. I'd be thinking any higher than 15-16 and we'll pass, maybe higher....

[liz]

I think it is optimistic and speculative to suggest Dunks "should debut next year" (assuming we are able to draft him). I think it is unlikely. Typically at the Swans first year players develop their craft in the 2s for a year and then, if they earn it, get a couple of games in the second year before beginning to see some more regular game time in their 3rd+ seasons e.g. Mitchell, Towers, Jones (all first round picks). Not many Swans draftees get to debut in their first year - freaks like Heeney and Hanners break this mould. At this stage there is nothing to suggest that Dunks is so far advanced in his development that, if we get him, we would debut him as soon as next year. Mills may be a different story - we'll have to see.

I don't disagree with your overall point, but a fair number of the Swans' current list debuted in their first season. Off the top of my head (there are probably more):

Bird
Jones
Rampe
Jetta
Rohan
Jack (B)
Reid
Heeney
Rose
Parker
Hanners
Pyke
Johnson
Richards (X)

Sure, few of them had more than odd cameos in their debut seasons, but Parker, Hanners, Johnson, Heeney, Bird, Rampe and Jetta are all examples who had a reasonable impact. Only Jetta and Rampe were overage.

[bloodspirit]

I don't disagree with your overall point, but a fair number of the Swans' current list debuted in their first season. Off the top of my head (there are probably more):

Bird
Jones
Rampe
Jetta
Rohan
Jack (B)
Reid
Heeney
Rose
Parker
Hanners
Pyke
Johnson
Richards (X)

Sure, few of them had more than odd cameos in their debut seasons, but Parker, Hanners, Johnson, Heeney, Bird, Rampe and Jetta are all examples who had a reasonable impact. Only Jetta and Rampe were overage.

That's some good context and more players than I realised, thanks Liz.

Very generous to include X in that list! - not even he considered that a debut, as he revealed on his 2nd 'debut', this year. Also amazing to see that Pyke debuted in his first year! Granted he was mature age but he was coming from a completely different code. I am dumbfounded that he adapted that quickly.

[Ajn]

Dunkley strangely quiet (father/son)

I don't like the lack of commitment with our latest Father and son option. I see he has played with Richmond reserves because he wants to stay close to home. This may be a major loss if we can't secure his services and as with free agents who don't commit verbally early this has a smell about it and I am keen to be proven otherwise.
A Mills, Heeney, Dunkley midfield rotation could allow us to maintain being competitive into the future, underneath our current crop. We are going to have a large turnover soon with some ageing stars needing to perhaps go forward more often.
Please let me know that I have missed an announcement somewhere...

[Mug Punter]

I don't like the lack of commitment with our latest Father and son option. I see he has played with Richmond reserves because he wants to stay close to home. This may be a major loss if we can't secure his services and as with free agents who don't commit verbally early this has a smell about it and I am keen to be proven otherwise.
A Mills, Heeney, Dunkley midfield rotation could allow us to maintain being competitive into the future, underneath our current crop. We are going to have a large turnover soon with some ageing stars needing to perhaps go forward more often.
Please let me know that I have missed an announcement somewhere...

I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest, we may well be being a bit cagey too.

He is no guarantee of being drafted by us anyway as it depends on where he goes and how much we have to pay so he is wise keeping his options open at this stage. I don't think it is fair for us to expect him to nominate a preference.

I'm also not sure about our squad being that old. In Hanners, Parker, Mitchell, Heeney, BJ, Rampe, Mills, Hewett, Jones and Nankervis we have a bit of youth there. Where we are looking a bit old is in the defensive stocks though.

I'd like us to draft Dunks too but only at the right price

[707]

There is an AFL deadline on 31 October for clubs/players to declare their F/S intentions so we'll know by then.

If Dunkley goes into the draft without the F/S fall back, he may or may not get drafted by Richmond who are likely to have a mid to late teens pick. He could easily end up at one of those power Melbourne clubs like Carlton or Essendon who through trade outs are likely to have quite a number of first rounders.

So he may be playing and mixing with Richmond but in a thin draft could easily be gone before their pick. I'm sure we'll give him the nod if we think he is worth the points and he fits our list management. We'll also have an eye to the future with his talented 16yo younger brother Kyle.

[Primmy]

Since when does any kid HAVE to do what the redandwhiters say he should do??? If Richmond pick him up poor ole us, and good luck to him. We have other options.

[Triple B]

A Mills, Heeney, Dunkley midfield rotation could allow us to maintain being competitive into the future, underneath our current crop. We are going to have a large turnover soon with some ageing stars needing to perhaps go forward more often.

There is nothing ageing about our current midfield. Kennedy, Jack, Mitchell, Hanners and Parker would be close to the youngest of the elite midfields in the competition. If Dunkley was a KPP I'd be very disappointed if he decided he didn't want to come to Sydney, but with our current midfield and some undisputed class sitting in the wings (Heeney, Mills) we can afford to pass on him if the price is too high...

[The Big Cat]

In this week's Inside football they rank this year's draft chances. They have Mills at #3 but don't have Dunkley in their top 25.

[aardvark]

In this week's Inside football they rank this year's draft chances. They have Mills at #3 but don't have Dunkley in their top 25.

There is a reason for that and it's because he is at best an average talent. If we don't get him it's no great loss.

[Mug Punter]

There is a reason for that and it's because he is at best an average talent. If we don't get him it's no great loss.

I have a feeling he could go late second round

[bloodspirit]

There is nothing ageing about our current midfield. Kennedy, Jack, Mitchell, Hanners and Parker would be close to the youngest of the elite midfields in the competition. If Dunkley was a KPP I'd be very disappointed if he decided he didn't want to come to Sydney, but with our current midfield and some undisputed class sitting in the wings (Heeney, Mills) we can afford to pass on him if the price is too high...

It could be that it is precisely our midfield depth that may put him off - he might think he'll never get a game and there's no room for him!

[Ludwig]

Now it seems Cam McCarthy wants out of the Giants and go home to WA.
Giant wants out: Cam McCarthy requests trade to WA club - AFL.com.au

The 4 northern AFL clubs have such an uphill battle to retain players under the realities of current player movement environment. The AFL should never have changed the academy rules until the problem of players using this go home factor is fixed by having the majority of northern club players coming through their academies. It's the biggest equalisation problem facing the AFL and they are just making harder to get it fixed.

I think the Swans should announce in advance that they will not be matching any bids for Callum Mills because they are sure he will come to them in due course because of the go home factor, but will use their first round pick to draft him, just like it would be under the old system. The other northern clubs should do the same.

The other clubs are just using the northern clubs (Swans excluded) as a training facility for their future stars. Even for the Giants, who have managed the problem fairly well, it must be a constant worry trying to hold on to their best players.

They may have inked a big TV deal, but the long term health of the AFL looks to be in serious trouble.