Trade target discussion (merged thread)

[707]

So that's it for 2015, now to the trade and draft and some number crunching.

We've finished 5th, gives us pick 14. There will be no priority picks, if Melbourne couldn't get one Brissy & Carltank won't. There will be only one Band 1 compo pick, that's for Dangerfield, pushing us out to pick 15 and this is the important bit, it's worth 1112 points.

1112 points buys us pick 10 on the academy discount scale so if Mills is bid on at pick 10 we only use our first rounder. If he is bid on as high as pick 4, which is probably as high as we should expect given the other players at the pointy end of the draft and who the first few teams are in the draft order, then we will need our second rounder worth about 500 points to fill the 513 point gap.

All that is before we do any trades which may bring other picks into the club or the unlikely that we trade some out. Then there are swapping picks scenarios - a club like Wretchmond may want our pick 15 to get another deal done and in return offer us two picks around 30 which are of greater value points wise than our pick 15, win/win.

Going to be a really interesting trade period.

[bennyfabulous]

Sounds like the swans should give u a call 707. I reckon you might be ok at figuring it all out! Hopefully they are on the same page.

[barry]

Great deal if we can get mills for first round pick and maybe second. Did we tank finals serues?

Mills. Leuenburger and a tall defender for jetta would be good for us.

[707]

Sounds like the swans should give u a call 707. I reckon you might be ok at figuring it all out! Hopefully they are on the same page.

Yes I'm a numbers man. I had the points system on a spreadsheet within minutes of it's release and started working permutations. I'm sure all clubs are doing the same thing.

What occurred to me with the Mills situation is that our first rounder never equates to a player for us, like who do we think we could get around that pick. It's just x number of points towards Mills asking price. So you can swap that first rounder with a club who sees a player they want at pick 15 for two later picks that give you more points to get Mills.

Picks as far out as 31+32 equates to an extra 80 points and every club would do that swap, particularly in a shallow draft like this year. If you could get say 26+31 you would be over 200 points ahead.

Our first rounder will be valuable to a number of teams trying to get heavyweight deals done, like Bennell might take two first rounders, or Dangerfield if Adelaide match the Geelong offer and force a trade, or Treloar to Collingwood will need more than the Pies pick 7.

As a numbers man I'm rapt in the points system!

[Auntie.Gerald]

LIKE

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Yes I'm a numbers man. I had the points system on a spreadsheet within minutes of it's release and started working permutations. I'm sure all clubs are doing the same thing.

What occurred to me with the Mills situation is that our first rounder never equates to a player for us, like who do we think we could get around that pick. It's just x number of points towards Mills asking price. So you can swap that first rounder with a club who sees a player they want at pick 15 for two later picks that give you more points to get Mills.

Picks as far out as 31+32 equates to an extra 80 points and every club would do that swap, particularly in a shallow draft like this year. If you could get say 26+31 you would be over 200 points ahead.

Our first rounder will be valuable to a number of teams trying to get heavyweight deals done, like Bennell might take two first rounders, or Dangerfield if Adelaide match the Geelong offer and force a trade, or Treloar to Collingwood will need more than the Pies pick 7.

As a numbers man I'm rapt in the points system!

I think you are on the money, or points.

There are 2 different strategies.

For us, because of Mills and maybe Dunkley, points are more important then selections and we require as many points as we can.

Next year we might want a higher pick and trade for that and lose total points. I am sure/hope they know what we are doing. The usual suspect clubs with poor decisions will probably explode having to think.

And poor old Dodoro at the Bombers will loss Carlise for nothing and the worst trader in the comp.

[longmile]

I really think we should be going after Hampton. With Jetta, Shaw and Goodes going we need a player with some speed and good disposal off the half back line or midfield

[MattW]

So if we do trade in Leuenberger, what becomes of Pyke? I wondered at the time whether Saturday night was Pyke's last game for us. They were using Tippett to cover two positions, and personally I'd prefer he played more forward. He dominated forward in the last third of the season. Pyke appears to have lost what mobility he had.

So, what is the story with Leuenberger? Just from FootyWire: Pick 4 in the 2006 draft, averaged between 13-15 disposals in the only full seasons he's played in 2010, 2011 and 2013, but only averaged 7.6 disposals over 14 games last season. Career average of 0.2 goals per game. Has suffered multiple knee and achilles injuries.

[ugg]

Pyke is contracted to the end of 2016, so even if we delist him we would have to include his pay in the salary cap. We might as well keep him as a back up option in case of an injury crisis.

[liz]

I really think we should be going after Hampton. With Jetta, Shaw and Goodes going we need a player with some speed and good disposal off the half back line or midfield

Or Yarran. Hampton would be cheaper. Apparently he has family in SA, which is why he is quite keen to move there.

[6'2, 220, 4.53]

I'm not trying to stir anything up here, I'm just posing a potential scenario.

Is it possible that part of Buddy's recovery could be a recommended change of scenery or workplace?

With future picks now available, do you think there are any clubs that would trade for Buddy, if part of his recovery is a recommended change of scenery?

Obviously the Swans would have to cover part of this future contract in this scenario.

I hope it does not come to this, but Buddy must be in a really bad way to not play finals. We don't know what the recommended solution with Buddy will be.

This post is pure speculation.

[Ludwig]

I wouldn't be interested in either Yarran or Hampton. We are very well stocked with quality young midfielders and have some good options for HBF as well.

Jones looks a near certainty to hold down a spot next year. Hewett has actually played better than Jones in the reserves and looks ready to play a good slice of senior games next year. Mills also looks ready and can see another Heeney-like first year in the making. All 3 are likely to develop into top quality players.

Nic Newman has a Malceski type game with a strong attack on the footy and willingness to take the game on from HB. Marsh has been more defensive, but is quick and strong. He too could challenge for a spot in our backline. And if Towers can manage to hold down a spot in our forward line, Rohan might be switched to the backline as well.

Michael Talia has been on my radar since last year and was pleased to see his name pop up in players we might be looking at. Only Xav Richards looks ready to give a KPD a shot next year. Aliir looks at least another year away and needs a lot of work on reading the play and positioning. We really need some additional depth in tall defence as we have no certain replacements for Ted and Reg.

I can understand our interest in Leuenberger given that Pyke looks shot and our next in line, Naismith, has barely any senior experience. We must not be too worried about Naismith's run with injury as we just signed him for another 3 years. Leuenberger is a decent ruckman when fit, but not dominant and has never been much of a goal kicking threat. He's played less than half the possible games in the past 4 year period and finished the season once again on the injury list. I just can't see laying out $450k for such a player.

When our forward line is up a going, something that hasn't happened often enough, our best option looks to be Tippett and Reid sharing the ruck duties. I would also look to develop Aliir as a mobile ruckman rather than a key defender. Nankervis still needs a lot of development, but hardly played worse than Pyke this year. Leuenberger will be 28 next June. It seems a poor value for money option and another act of desperation to fill the ruck position. I think we already have enough players with high injury risk on our list and shouldn't be shelling out $450k for yet another. I'd wait another year to see how things pan out.

[0918330512]

Nankervis still needs a lot of development, but hardly played worse than Pyke this year.

Really? Slow as Pike is (compared with his run as a rugby player against the All Blacks), he's still a gazelle compared with Nank. Mike might not have the greatest hitout to advantage record, but Toby only has a great ruck record against pretty substandard NEAFL opposition. Ok, Mike wasn't making spectacularly this year, but a couple of years ago he was the 2nd best contested mark in the comp, as backup ruckman.
I'm not convinced that Toby is ready to fill the Big Canadian's boots just yet

[mcs]

I wouldn't be interested in either Yarran or Hampton. We are very well stocked with quality young midfielders and have some good options for HBF as well.

Hampton would be a good pickup, but we've got little to no hope of getting him, given his comments that he wants to go to Adelaide. He is a very decent defender in the making, and willing to take on the lines from the half back line - which is something I think we are really going to miss without Shaw there (Given Jetta is likely to go - and the disaster that moving him back there was anyway!)

[Ludwig]

Hampton would be a good pickup, but we've got little to no hope of getting him, given his comments that he wants to go to Adelaide. He is a very decent defender in the making, and willing to take on the lines from the half back line - which is something I think we are really going to miss without Shaw there (Given Jetta is likely to go - and the disaster that moving him back there was anyway!)

I think Hampton has the ability to be a good player, but I don't think he would be a good pickup. When looking to recruit players we should put it in the context of what our needs are and how the recruit will impact the development of other players. I've wondered why the Giants chose not to play Hampton even after Buntine got injured. Perhaps they knew Hampton wanted out or perhaps Hampton wants out because the Giants chose to play Kennedy instead.

In any case, the retirement of Shaw makes room for Jones to become a regular starter in our back six. We have Newman and Marsh vying to break into the side and both have made a good case for themselves with their reserves performances this year. We have several players (Towers, Hiscox, BJ, Rose) looking to break into the side as forwards, and if successful, might push Rohan to defence. So where does Hampton fit into this scenario? Is he so good that he leapfrogs all these other aspirants of does he just add to the list of a half dozen players vying for 1 or 2 spots?