Is it already Killing Season 2016 (List Management) after 2 rounds

[Ludwig]

The 3 Toms

Who could they possibly be talking about?

He?s famous for his dry wit, good looks and prowess on the footy field.

What a great piece of imaginative journalism from the West Australian: Sydney Swan Tom Derickx kick starts viral White Shirt campaign - The West Australian

Tom Harley can't focus on Tom Mitchell while this Tom is coming out of contract this year. I hear Carlton has tabled a big multi-year contract with his manager. If we lose him I'm really worried about our lack of depth in key position travelling emergencies.

[707]

Tom Mitchell is playing for a very good team in contention.

Carlton is a rebuilding team that is unlikely to rebuild into a top 8 side because by the time their current and future kids are becoming solid AFL level players, they will be losing their current best players to retirement meaning they need twice the drafting strike rate as already top sides like us. Carlton were an older side than us last week!

Why would you jump ship to a team that is an unlikely finalist whilst you are playing? Why would you go to a team where you will get tagged because you aren't surrounded by midfield guns like you are at the Swans? Mitchell won't be going to Carlton!

There will almost certainly be a massive rise in the cap from next year, Buddy will look cheap then, so will Tippett, we don't have cap problems to sweat about.

[Mug Punter]

Tom Mitchell is playing for a very good team in contention.

Carlton is a rebuilding team that is unlikely to rebuild into a top 8 side because by the time their current and future kids are becoming solid AFL level players, they will be losing their current best players to retirement meaning they need twice the drafting strike rate as already top sides like us. Carlton were an older side than us last week!

Why would you jump ship to a team that is an unlikely finalist whilst you are playing? Why would you go to a team where you will get tagged because you aren't surrounded by midfield guns like you are at the Swans? Mitchell won't be going to Carlton!

There will almost certainly be a massive rise in the cap from next year, Buddy will look cheap then, so will Tippett, we don't have cap problems to sweat about.

It is increasingly looking like we took a calculated gamble on the Salary Cap going north at a rapid rate from 2017 and you'd think we have nailed that bet.

As a result Buddy's deal will not look as outrageous as it seems. Try telling me that Fyfe won't be on $1.5m a year when he is out of contract at the end of next year.

The only disadvantage we'll have from Buddy's deal as I see it is that we might be carrying him on overs (if he plays at all) in seasons 8 and 9 of his deal.

[stellation]

Tom Mitchell is playing for a very good team in contention.

Carlton is a rebuilding team that is unlikely to rebuild into a top 8 side because by the time their current and future kids are becoming solid AFL level players, they will be losing their current best players to retirement meaning they need twice the drafting strike rate as already top sides like us. Carlton were an older side than us last week!

Why would you jump ship to a team that is an unlikely finalist whilst you are playing? Why would you go to a team where you will get tagged because you aren't surrounded by midfield guns like you are at the Swans? Mitchell won't be going to Carlton!

There will almost certainly be a massive rise in the cap from next year, Buddy will look cheap then, so will Tippett, we don't have cap problems to sweat about.

It may simply come down to how great a gap there is financially- we know we've already had to offer Tom a sizable chunk of cash just to join us as a father/son selection instead of heading over to GWS, so as much as we'd like to think in a situation like this we have lovable Barry saying "stay put, boyo!" I think there's definitely a degree of shrewd, financial cunning in the Mitchell camp. Which is perfectly fine.

Whilst we're in a more attractive position than GWS, Treloar opted to move at the end of last year because of money- he publicly acknowledged that if GWS could come close to the other offers he would stay as he was happy there/saw a strong future, the club didn't and Treloar walked. From what I can gather the gap was quite significant both per season and in number of guaranteed years. If Tom was put in a similar situation with Carlton I really wouldn't be surprised if he took the offer- $300 k difference over a 4-5 year contract is a lot of money to leave on the table (I think that was roughly the Treloar difference, as an example).

[Mug Punter]

It may simply come down to how great a gap there is financially- we know we've already had to offer Tom a sizable chunk of cash just to join us as a father/son selection instead of heading over to GWS, so as much as we'd like to think in a situation like this we have lovable Barry saying "stay put, boyo!" I think there's definitely a degree of shrewd, financial cunning in the Mitchell camp. Which is perfectly fine.

Whilst we're in a more attractive position than GWS, Treloar opted to move at the end of last year because of money- he publicly acknowledged that if GWS could come close to the other offers he would stay as he was happy there/saw a strong future, the club didn't and Treloar walked. From what I can gather the gap was quite significant both per season and in number of guaranteed years. If Tom was put in a similar situation with Carlton I really wouldn't be surprised if he took the offer- $300 k difference over a 4-5 year contract is a lot of money to leave on the table (I think that was roughly the Treloar difference, as an example).

The reality is that good players, especially from strong clubs, can just about always command better coin elsewhere.

In our favour Tom is probably aware he has been very well paid, quite possibly overpaid, to date and he does seem settled. Nevertheless I don't begrudge players setting themselves up because it is a brutal sport and a short career. Tom probably has a price like everyone else whereby he'd be tempted to leave, a six year $4.5m deal for instance would be hard to knowck back for a 23 year old. But I think overall we should be able to come close enough for a deal even if it is just to get him through to free agency because it would be highly unlikely for him to win a flag at Carlton and ultimately that will be an overriding factor

[stellation]

The reality is that good players, especially from strong clubs, can just about always command better coin elsewhere.

In our favour Tom is probably aware he has been very well paid, quite possibly overpaid, to date and he does seem settled. Nevertheless I don't begrudge players setting themselves up because it is a brutal sport and a short career. Tom probably has a price like everyone else whereby he'd be tempted to leave, a six year $4.5m deal for instance would be hard to knowck back for a 23 year old. But I think overall we should be able to come close enough for a deal even if it is just to get him through to free agency because it would be highly unlikely for him to win a flag at Carlton and ultimately that will be an overriding factor

I certainly hope we can, even with having a couple of exciting young assumed eventual midfield stars in Heeney and Mills I think that Tom is absolutely crucial for us based on his age (and obviously skills as well!).

[KTigers]

Over the decade or so years Hawthorn, Geelong and us have proved it's possible to maintain a team of stars together (9 of the last 11 premierships between them) in the age of the salary cap. You have to keep winning, and you have to have a winning culture. There will always be the odd star player that will leave (in our case Malceski). Tom Mitchell has been at the Swans for a while now, and has become part of the furniture. He probably feels pretty good being part of a multiple All Australian midfield and is now mentioned in the same breadth as Kennedy, Hanners, Parker & Jack. I think it would take a vast pile of money to drag him from that.

[Luke Shannon]

I believe that these guys will be gone at the end of the year:

- Tom Derickx (Delisted - No hope of staying on).
- Ben McGlynn (Retired - The emergence of Papley, Rose and Hewitt will probably lead to McGlynn not getting a contract extension).
- Ted Richards (Retired - Probably doing the club a favour by playing on due to the lack of progress of his brother and Aliir. Retirement likely).
- Alex Johnson (Retired - I don't think the club will give him 2017 to progress).
- Aliir / X Richards (Delisted - The club may pick one of the two to delist and give the other a final chance in 2017).

The following guys will be close to leaving but could get one more chance in 2017:

- Aliir / X Richards (The club may decide to delist both Aliire and X Richards, but I think one will stay on).
- Brandon Jack (Could be close to being delisted but could get a chance in 2017 due to five other possible list changes above his).
- Toby Nankervis (Close to being delisted but Ruckman are readily injured and he may provide cover in 2017).

Rookie Upgrades:

Tom Papley (Will be a definite upgrade at the end of 2016).
Harrison Marsh (Playing brilliantly in the reserves according to reserve viewers. After four years of development, 2017 may be his year).

Market place:

Will have to assess the situation with players yet to sign for 2017. If Mitchell were to vacate then the Swans will probably look to upgrade their 1st round pick and draft a young key position player (Daniel McStay type) in the 1st round. The Swans would jump at any delisted free agents who were able KPD.

Academy

Is there any Key Position talent coming through the academy in the next two years?

[Conor_Dillon]

I believe that these guys will be gone at the end of the year:
- Brandon Jack (Could be close to being delisted but could get a chance in 2017 due to five other possible list changes above his).

B.Jack is contracted until the end of 2017...really hard to see him being anything other than a depth option until that expires though

[707]

Hooker and Hurley can be FA at years end by exercising a clause that Essendon failed in their duty of care. Only one suspended Bomber has recommitted to re-sign for next year.

Hooker is from WA so highly likely to lob at Freo who have a need and plenty of $.

Hurley is more 50/50, the kind of player lurable to Hawthorn but if he wants to leave behind his bogan mates in Melb and make a fresh start with us I'd be very happy.

Surely we would do everything possible to find a very good KPD given this is almost certainly Ted's last year and Reg will be over 30. Fingers crossed Talia can make the grade.

On the others discussed, Derrickx is gone, XR likely to be, Marsh is on his last lifeline. Aliir looks to be developing, BJ is stagnating but contracted for 2017. Everyone else is showing something, Melican just needs a good run with injuries.

[Cosmic Wizard]

We need a real cull!!!

Horse has always being too soft with the older players, unlike Hawthorn.

Was never sold on XR, or Nankervis; a ruckman need pace and endurance these days, why did we recruit him in the first place???

As for BJ, we need elite kicking skills and hardness, which he has not just got.

Also need to get rid off Benny, Teddy, and dare I say mcveigh??

A knee injury at his age spell the end, and four round in, with no sight, it time to call it.

He should not play until he proves himself in the 2s, and then only sparingly.

All great careers come to end, he should be show the door!

[Mug Punter]

We need a real cull!!!

Horse has always being too soft with the older players, unlike Hawthorn.

Was never sold on XR, or Nankervis; a ruckman need pace and endurance these days, why did we recruit him in the first place???

As for BJ, we need elite kicking skills and hardness, which he has not just got.

Also need to get rid off Benny, Teddy, and dare I say mcveigh??

A knee injury at his age spell the end, and four round in, with no sight, it time to call it.

He should not play until he proves himself in the 2s, and then only sparingly.

All great careers come to end, he should be show the door!

Yes we really are in a right mess at the moment aren't we?

BJ and Jarad are both contracted until next year so you'd hope the club would honour those I hope. Your comments re Jarad are pretty disrespectful in my book, FFS give him a chance to come back he's not the first football player to get an injury. He may be struggling to play on past 2017 but I wouldn't write him off.

I agree with a bit of what you and Luke Shannan say. Xav, Nanka and AA have to be under the microscope and clearly Tom Dx is not up to it at senior AFL level. Alex won't be renewed on the senior list. Ben and Ted will be 32 and 34 respectively at the end of next year and you'd think they'd be struggling for a new contract but if Ted plays like he has the last two weeks all season there'll be a new contract available so I feel one may get an extra season. We may also see Nanka kept on as I think we'd like four ruckman on this list.

So, for mine we'd be well on track for six out. We don't do culls at the Swans so I'd be saying two rookie upgrades (Papley and Newman or Marsh), three draftees and a KPD free agent if we can find one...

[Levii3]

According to 3aw we and the Brisbane Lions are interested in Jack Steele (GWS) is this a back up for if Mitchell leaves or.. A genuine recruit to start like Kennedy?

[Cosmic Wizard]

Yes we really are in a right mess at the moment aren't we?

BJ and Jarad are both contracted until next year so you'd hope the club would honour those I hope. Your comments re Jarad are pretty disrespectful in my book, FFS give him a chance to come back he's not the first football player to get an injury. He may be struggling to play on past 2017 but I wouldn't write him off.

I agree with a bit of what you and Luke Shannan say. Xav, Nanka and AA have to be under the microscope and clearly Tom Dx is not up to it at senior AFL level. Alex won't be renewed on the senior list. Ben and Ted will be 32 and 34 respectively at the end of next year and you'd think they'd be struggling for a new contract but if Ted plays like he has the last two weeks all season there'll be a new contract available so I feel one may get an extra season. We may also see Nanka kept on as I think we'd like four ruckman on this list.

So, for mine we'd be well on track for six out. We don't do culls at the Swans so I'd be saying two rookie upgrades (Papley and Newman or Marsh), three draftees and a KPD free agent if we can find one...

Look being undefeated is good, but have we really played anyone who is a lock for a top four??

Lets wait and see when we play Hawthorn, the true yardstick of the comp, where we really are.

Legitimate contenders or a yard or two off the pace.

We have some holes in out ranks; and having money by retiring older players is one way of getting some awesome trades.

That and cleaning out players who have had four to five years on the list and aren't part of the best 25

[Mug Punter]

Look being undefeated is good, but have we really played anyone who is a lock for a top four??

Lets wait and see when we play Hawthorn, the true yardstick of the comp, where we really are.

Legitimate contenders or a yard or two off the pace.

We have some holes in out ranks; and having money by retiring older players is one way of getting some awesome trades.

That and cleaning out players who have had four to five years on the list and aren't part of the best 25

I think we'll have a really good idea after the Crows and Eagles.

Think we'll see more evolution rather than rebuild, Towers, Robbo and Hewett are testament to us giving players time to develop bit reckon we'll see reasonable turnover at the end of this season after effectively not delisting anyone last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nanka kept on as a list player at minimum wage and for some defenders (Marsh, AA and Xav) it is most definitely a make or break season