2017 trading, drafting, list management

[Mel_C]

I am amused at all of these Collingwood supporters going ballistic at the trading of Murray for a future second round pick. Time will tell of course on who won the deal but it's fun to see the Pies supporters in meltdown. Imagine if the Pies have another bad start to the season with the re-signing of Buckley and these sort of deals. It will be fun to watch in a macabre kind of way.


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I was listening to SEN after the Murray trade and they were telling the Collingwood supporters to calm down because next year they will be using their picks for an academy player and I think I heard a father and son. Either way I hope they fall down the ladder again so we get a better pick ???? .

[chalbilto]

I was just looking at the indicative draft order and note that Sydney has picks 14, 33, 51 then the next one is 88. Does this seem to indicate that they will only use 3 live picks in the draft?

[longmile]

I was just looking at the indicative draft order and note that Sydney has picks 14, 33, 51 then the next one is 88. Does this seem to indicate that they will only use 3 live picks in the draft?

Yes seems like it. We gave away Murray w/ pick 70. They'll upgrade Melican with back 88 I'd imagine

[Billericay]

Melican comes in for McVeigh, who is probably in our best 22, but becomes a depth player in order to let younger players develop. He could become a regular if the kids don't produce.

Aliir, Dawson, Hayward and Florent are all potential A grade players who should be given adequate time to prove they can hold down a regular spot in the side. Dawson was held back until his 3rd year, same as Hewett was, and now 2 years later George got to 5th in our B&F. Dawson's 2nd year was better than Hewett's 2nd year and he would have won the NEAFL MVP had he played all the games.

I think Towers will be the one to fall out of our best 22, but not by much. Harry Cunningham will also challenge for a spot. I would have Rohan ahead of both of them and it's hard to see him not making the team if he gets through the pre-season unscathed, and it's a big if.

With any luck Tippett will be ready to start his pre-season training by round 1 and get into the NEAFL by mid season. Our starting ruckman will be the one not on the Injury List. I could even be Darcy Cameron.

It's good to do the best 22 as it highlights why we had a quiet trade period and also how far down the pecking order Sam Murray was, despite having line breaking pace and the potential to become an AFL player.

What about Tower as 2nd ruck. If he drops out, who plays this role?

[Ludwig]

What about Tower as 2nd ruck. If he drops out, who plays this role?

Reid, Aliir and Parker.

Now that clubs are only playing 1 ruckman, some are really putting in a lot of minutes. But every club is in the same situation. We will probably see more coordination in 2nd ruckmen coming up against each other. With our depth of ruckmen, injury permitting, we could rotate them from game to game so they are well rested when they do play.

It's a shame Darcy Cameron injured his shoulder and missed half the season. I think he's got as good a chance as any of them to be our #1 ruckman next year. He has the best overall game of the lot. He just needs to show he can do it at AFL level.

[Billericay]

Reid, Aliir and Parker.

Now that clubs are only playing 1 ruckman, some are really putting in a lot of minutes. But every club is in the same situation. We will probably see more coordination in 2nd ruckmen coming up against each other. With our depth of ruckmen, injury permitting, we could rotate them from game to game so they are well rested when they do play.

It's a shame Darcy Cameron injured his shoulder and missed half the season. I think he's got as good a chance as any of them to be our #1 ruckman next year. He has the best overall game of the lot. He just needs to show he can do it at AFL level.

Agree that Darcy Cameron has great potential. The rest is madness: Aliir has been tried and failed as a ruckman. Reid shouldn't play in the ruck nor should Parker.

[Ludwig]

Agree that Darcy Cameron has great potential. The rest is madness: Aliir has been tried and failed as a ruckman. Reid shouldn't play in the ruck nor should Parker.

It's not true that Aliir has failed in the ruck. He's never played in the ruck at AFL level and he's done well enough at NEAFL level.

I don't see why Reid can't play 2nd ruck against a similar type player who would also be playing 2nd ruck. He goes okay in the ruck.

Parker has been used many times in the ruck and has acquitted himself well enough given his height. He jumps well.

We are talking about 7 or 8 ruck contests a game. It's not such a big deal who goes in. The other team is facing the same situation. It's not really a ruck contest, but just a 'put the ball in play' situation. Richmond have used Shaun Grigg who only goes up in earnest about half the time at best. It seems to work well enough.

[Cosmic Psycho]

Not sure what you are referring to re Mumford. He was out of contract with us when the Swans let him go. Yes he had one year left on his GWS contract but it sounds as if the decision to quit was his (based on medical advice) - even if the club didn?t try to convince him otherwise (and GWS have now given him an alternative career through a coaching position so he hasn?t been left out on his own).

And re contracts - we discussed this earlier in this thread. A club (with approval from the AFL) can delist a contracted player but then have to pay out the remaining contract term and that full amount is counted in the salary cap in the year in which it is paid. So if you are suggesting this should be done with Tippett, the 3 years left in his contract would all get counted in the cap for next year - which I suspect would put the Swans in the red.

Further re Tippett, I for one am tired of the negativity towards him. He has had a wretched run with injuries; some people seem to think this is a sort of moral failure on his part (comments on him ?not delivering? etc.). Where is the compassion that has been shown to AJ who has been on our list for the last FIVE years without playing a single senior match?

And before everyone jumps on me re the salary differential between Tippett and AJ, Tippett?s salary over the time he has been with the Swans (it seems now considerably less than in his first contract) reflects the market value put on KFFs and skilled ruck/forwards - roles which when fit & healthy Tippett filled extremely well.

(And there has been an opportunity cost for the Swans in retaining an unfit AJ - worth thinking about by those who bemoan the loss of Biggs for example.)

The investment in Tippett hasn?t worked out the way the Swans and the fans would have liked, but that is sheer bad luck. I for one really hope that the ankle surgery he has had enables him to return fit and to be the player we know he can be.

Ps: no one should read the above as a criticism of the club for showing loyalty to AJ. I am proud to support a club that treats its players with respect as it is now doing with Tippett (note that several times Longmire & Harley have referred to the professionalism with which Tippett has treated his rehabilitation periods and to his attempts to play through the pain of his ankle injury). I would just like to see more fans treat Tippett similarly.

This is really great. I genuinely dislike the way Tippett is criticised. A lot of experts here. I remember the way people went on about Jack and Macca and Sydney in general after our horrid start. After round 7, that all changed. Let the (real) experts do their thing.


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[barry]

Fringe players will always cop it. fact of life. Same people who love McVeigh, hate on towers and tippet and vise versa.
Swings and roundabouts.

[Bloods05]

Fringe players will always cop it. fact of life. Same people who love McVeigh, hate on towers and tippet and vise versa.
Swings and roundabouts.

Jeez, didn't see that coming.

[Auntie.Gerald]

So who will we have the opportunity to pick at the draft ?

[stevoswan]

So who will we have the opportunity to pick at the draft ?

Ask Ludwig because have I nothing but this is what Callum Twomey thinks on afl.com.au:"Pick 14: The Swans have one of the strongest midfield units in the competition, but could look to bolster it with their first pick by bringing in Charlie Constable. The 190cm midfielder could develop alongside the likes of Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker, and has shown a real capacity this season to be a clearance king and win the ball at the stoppages. Constable averaged 26 disposals at the under-18 carnival for Vic Metro and is comfortable getting his hands dirty to feed the ball out." .......Do we really need more inside mids? Some say we missed Mitchell (not me), so maybe it's a good move......

[chalbilto]

So who will we have the opportunity to pick at the draft ?

Leave that to the club recruiters. I am confident that they will select the best available players to suit the club's needs.

[Ludwig]

I've been giving the draft a bit of thought now that the trade period is over. It will be interesting to hear from Cal Twomey over the coming weeks as he seems to have an inside edge to what recruiters are thinking. Here is roughly how I think the first round might go:

1 Brisbane - Cam Rayner
2 Freo - Davies-Uniacke
3 Carlton - Cerra
4 North - Dow
5 Freo - Naughton
6 Pies - Brander
7 St Kilda - Brayshaw
8 St Kilda - Stephenson
9 Dogs - Coffield
10 Carlton - Higgins
11 GWS - Clark
12 Adelaide - Darcy Fogarty
13 WCE - Oscar Allen
14 Swans - Balta
15 Bris - Constable
16 Dogs - O'Brien
17 Richmond - Hayes

There seems to be some consensus that those 4 midfielders will go first, but the order is not clear. 5 and 6 are likely to go KPPs to suit both clubs' needs, also given that Freo will take a midfielder with pick 2. The order starts to get a bit more complicated after that. If available, I think both Adelaide and WCE will take the best local kids at their 1st round picks.

Charley Constable, who some see us having some interest in, mainly because he's similar to what we have in our midfield, seems to me the best reason for not taking him. He's quite a good player, with size, good skills and a good footy brain, but lacks a bit of pace, which is something I think we should be looking for. Constable might also go before our pick 14.

We are in a good enough position to take the best player available at our pick 14 as we have enough depth in all areas, but my feeling is that with such a young and deep midfield we should lean towards a KPP with our first pick and then go for a midfield type with our pick 33. KJ should be the first midfielder to retire and that could be at least 3 years from now, and with so many still waiting in the wings, there's no urgency to add yet another to the our list.

If we do go for a midfielder, my favourites are Ed Richards, who plays mostly as a mid sized defender, has speed, kicking skill, quick decision maker and competitiveness that would fit well with the Swans. He simply looks like he has an AFL ready game. Lochie O'Brien should be available. He's a great left foot kick, has both pace and endurance, marks the ball well and makes good decisions. I don't think we would go wrong with either. Hunter Clark looks rushed under pressure, but the rest of his game would suit the Swans, with speed, dual sided kicking and is a solid two way player with a good all around game.

But my 1st choice nonetheless is Noah Balta, a 195 cm utility with line breaking speed and a good long kick. He reminds me a bit of Bontempelli, but with more pace. He can play anywhere on the ground, including ruck. He's been a bit inconsistent, perhaps mainly due to not having a permanent position, being moved around from forward to defender to ruckman. I think he has tremendous upside and would develop into a very good player under our development program.

Unfortunately there's less video of the prospects this year than in previous years, so it's hard to get a solid feel for player abilities, especially once we get past the top prospects. Hopefully more come available as we get closer to the draft.

A word should be said about Aiden Bonar. He's had 2 ACL recos on the same knee, the first one failing to take hold properly, and has only returned to playing football a few months ago after a 2 year absence. He's been great since he's been playing and blitzed the combine with his pace and agility. He also broke the standing vertical jump record once held by Dean Towers. He's a beast of a player in the mould of Patrick Dangerfield and if not for the legitimate worries about his knee holding up, he would easily be a top 10 pick and could well turn out to be the best player in the draft. It's hard to know where he will go in the draft as it's as much a medical decision as a recruiting decision. If our medical experts say he's good to go, I would take him with our first pick without hesitation.

Here is a summary of Noah Balta from Chris Doerre, who writes for ESPN and is also a Big Footy draft guru going by the name of Knightmare. Chris rates Balta much higher than all other draft pundits do, so that should be taken into consideration.

Best position: Key forward/key defence
Height, weight: 194cm, 92kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Projected draft range: First to second round
Similar to: Jarrad Waite
September Ranking: 5
Rationale: Speculative call, but Balta has the attributes and on-field impact to be the best key position player in this draft. Possesses explosive pace, extremely long kick and mix of cleanness at ground level and contested marking could see Balta develop into anything.
Strengths:
Versatility to impact games in any of the 18 field positions
Freakishly clean and one touch at ground level
Wins the ball cleanly at speed
Explosive, breakaway pace from congestion
Breaks the lines
Burst athlete who can get several touches in chains forward
Agility
Vertical leap
Strength
Contested marking
Gets front position in marking contests
Reads the drop of the ball early
Difficult to contain one the lead or leaping up at the football
Takes marks at full stretch
Stands up through tackles
Tackling
Scoreboard impact
Weaknesses:
Unclear best position Inconsistent performances

[Scottee]

I've been giving the draft a bit of thought now that the trade period is over. It will be interesting to hear from Cal Twomey over the coming weeks as he seems to have an inside edge to what recruiters are thinking. Here is roughly how I think the first round might go:

Very interesting post Ludwig.

I agree Balta looks good, but I think a big issue for us now is the lack of 'Allies' talent that won't want to go home at the end of their contract. Sussing out the attitude of the players regarding a long career in Sydney is going to be a really important factor that we know nothing about. Let's just hope Balta is keen on the harbour city and no other club gets to him before us.





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